Friday, January 27, 2012

Solar Activity Update, January 27, 2012

      Updated @18:40 Jan. 27, 2012

    Sunspot Region 1402 unleashed an X flare that peaked at X1.7 at 18:33 UTC.
     As of this post there have been five C class flares recorded by GOES today from Sunspot Regions 1401, 1402, and 1409.  The largest of these flares was a C5.5 Solar Flare from Sunspot Region 1402 at 06:24 UTC.  There was a CME eruption from the SW region of the disk that is seen beginning to eject on SOHO LC2 at approximatley 05:12 UTC.  This CME was ejected from near a new Sunspot Region  that was developing before it rotated off of the Earth facing side of the disk, and has not yet been numbered.

In this SOHO Lasco C2 image we get a nice view of this latest CME as it continues to speed away from the Solar Disk. Because of the direction this CME was ejected, it is not expected to be geoeffective.

The possibility for geomagnetic disturbance remains in effect for both today and tomorrow the 28th, from a reccurent CH HSS (Coronal Hole High Speed Stream). The effects of the HHS are expected to subside by the 29th. To the left is a Solar Map courtesy of Solen, showing the location of CH496 in the Sun's southern hemisphere

    The proton event in progress since Jan. 23 just passed below the 10 pfu threshold (for > 10 MeV protons) today and is therefore official over.

NOAAs 3-day Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity. Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.  Updated Jan 26 2200 UTC.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 026 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jan 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 1402 (N29W72) produced
several C-class events, the largest a C7 flare at 26/0149Z. The
region also produced a long duration C6 flare at 26/0542Z. An
associated partial-halo CME was first visible in C2 LASCO imagery at
26/0436Z (plane-of-sky speed approx 1044 km/s). The CME appears to
be directed well north of the ecliptic plane and towards the STEREO
A spacecraft. It is not expected to be geoeffective.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an isolated M-class event on day one (27
January). Activity is expected to decrease to low levels on days two
and three (28-29 January) after Region 1402 rotates around the west

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. The greater
than 10 MeV Proton event that began at 23/0530Z and reached a
maximum value of 6310 pfu at 24/1530Z, is still in progress.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on days one and two (27-28
January) due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).
Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day three (29 January) as
effects from the CH HSS subside. The greater than 10 MeV Proton
event is expected to decrease below the 10 pfu threshold early on
day one (27 January).

III.  Event Probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan
Class M    10/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     50/01/01
PCAF       Yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Jan 128
Predicted   27 Jan-29 Jan  120/120/120
90 Day Mean        26 Jan 143

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jan  017/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jan  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan  007/008-007/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/10
Minor storm           10/10/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/15
Minor storm           15/15/01
Major-severe storm    05/05/01


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