Saturday, January 21, 2012

Jan 19th CME Arriving Now


    Update:  Jan 22 @ 23:43 UTC
We are now having a G1 Minor Geomagnetic Storm
Geomagnetic conditions are ongoing
So far, conditions peaked between 10:00-12:00 UTC today. Solar winds topped out at speeds over 450km/sec. Density reached  65.6 protons/cm3

Current Solar Conditions:
Wind Speed: 447.9 km/sec
Density: 19.8  protons/cm3

Solar Storm Level - G1 - Minor
Kp Level is now at Kp5
High & Mid Latitude Aurora Watch in Effect

       Update: Jan 22 @ 07:30 UTC


     At 0516 UTC Jan 22, 2012 the ACE Spacecraft observed an IP Shock Passage. At 0614 UTC a Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse with a recorded deviation of 31 nT was recorded at the Boulder, CO Magnetometer. At 07:30 UTC The ACE data reads a proton density13.1 p/cc , Solar wind 427.0km/s, the BznT is -29.5, BynT -3.4. We expect this activity to continue throughout the day and will be posting updates.





Watch the CME arrival with us on the nict:



Update: Jan 22 @ 05:56 UTC

   The Bz just now took a turn and jumped to +25.2nt , Solar winds increased and there are some signs of density change. The bulk of the CME looks to be arriving now.

NOAA Space Weather Alert Issued:
Space Weather Message Code: WARSUD
Serial Number: 101
Issue Time: 2012 Jan 22 0541 UTC
WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expectedValid From: 2012 Jan 22 0539 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Jan 22 0700 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2012 Jan 22 0516 UTC


Watch the CME arrival with us on the nict:


Postd Jan 21 @ 19:33 utc


Just a short post here. We are now seeing small signs in the ACE data, and on the NICT Magnetosphere Simulation, that the front of the expected Jan 19th CME may be arriving.
The Density is now climbing, going from 5.9 to 14. 5.
We have been watching close for the arrival of this CME. Looking at the current STEREO HI2 images, we suspected it would indeed arrive today just as NASA Goddard had forecasted.
Now it is a waiting game to see if the bulk of the CME is directed north of Earth, and will only give us a glancing blow, or will have more of a direct impact.
We will update if we notice any sharp jumps in the ACE data.



   Here we can see the CME on the STEREO HI2 image at 03:47 UTC today.
  

  Here we can see the CME on the STEREO HI2 image at 09:47 UTC today.



 Looking at the ACE 1min data here,
 we can see a odd density spike at 19:23 where the density reading registered 73.8. http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/lists/ace/ace_swepam_1m.txt



D Region Absorption Map at 21:17 Jan 21, 2012.


This image shows how the CME impacts Earth's Magnetosphere.

3 comments:

  1. Great post Ninz, You spotted this almost as fast as ACE!

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  2. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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