Sunday, November 10, 2013

X1.1 Solar Flare From Sunspot 1890 - November 10, 2013

  As seen in the EVE image to the left, sunspot 1890 is directly Earth facing and has just produced a strong X1.1 solar flare at 05:14UTC.

Looking at the latest STEREO images, there is a CME that was produced along with this X flare.
More updated images are needed to tell the direction and speed of this CME. 

Check back often for further updates.

 The Goddard Space Flight Center CME model has been updated. The CME that was produced in association with this X flare is expected to have a direct Earth impact and will arrive late on Nov. 12th through early Nov. 13

November 10 2013 CME

Event Issue Date: 2013-11-10 10:00:59.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2013-11-12 18:39:35.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 24 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 4.9 Re

Click HERE to view the animated CME model

Friday, November 8, 2013

Sunspot 1890 Is Now Directly Earth Facing

   Monster sunspot 1890 has today rotated into a direct line with Earth, raising the possibility of any geoeffective events over the next 48-72 hours. The size of 1890 has decreased some over the past few days, with a area size of 920 being reported by solen on Nov 8th.

   Even with the decrease in size sunspot 1890 retained a magnetic delta structure in the southeastern section making chances high that we will see more activity from the sunspot over the next few days. NOAA forecasters are estimating a 60% chance of M-class solar flares and a 20% chance of X-flares for Nov 8th.
For a complete list of solar flares that we have had during November 2013, please visit our updated Solar Flare List page.

X1.1 Solar Flare From Sunspot 1890 - November 10, 2013
CHANCE OF FLARES: Big sunspot AR1890 has quieted since the X-flare of Nov. 8th, but this could be the calm before the storm. The sprawling Jupiter-sized sunspot has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for strong flares. NOAA forecasters estimate a 50% chance of M-class flares and a 20% chance of X-flares on Nov. 10th. credit:

Friday, April 12, 2013

M3.3 Solar Flare From Sunspot 1718 - April 12, 2013

   Today we had a M3.3 solar flare from sunspot region 1718 peaking at 20:38 UTC
Today's M3.3 flare comes on the heels of the M6.5 solar flare that occurred yesterday (April 11th) around sunspot region 1719 peaking at 07:16 UTC.


   At this time the M3 flare from today does not appear to have produced a CME. We will however be monitoring the solar images to see if we see any signs of this changing. The M6 flare from yesterday did however produce a Earth directed CME that is due to arrive sometime in the early hours of Saturday April 13, 2013 when a moderate G2 geomagnetic storm is forecasted to occurred.

Event Issue Date: 2013-04-11 11:41:59.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2013-04-13 05:57:21.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 5 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 4.8 Re

Sunday, March 17, 2013

CME Impact! March 17, 2013


   The full halo CME from Friday March 15th has arrived  at Earth early Sunday morning at around 05:30 UTC . The Solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field show a shock signature from this CME now arriving.
At the time the CME came in contact with Earths magnetosphere a geomagnetic disturbance commenced with the Bz fluctuating between minus 20 and plus 15 nanoTeslas.
The Solar wind speed jumped to around 700 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field Bz component is turbulent around -15 nT.
This brought on a moderate Geomagnetic storm.

   At this time geomagnetic storm level has reached storm levels of G2 (K=6). These conditions are expected to persist well into the early morning hours of tomorrow, Monday March 18.

Aurora may be seen as low as Montana, Michigan, New York, Wisconsin to Washington state, as well as other high latitude regions. To know where Auroras can be seen, look for the Aurora ovation model located in the left hand column of this site.

Any and All updates will be added to the bottom of this report in the spacial 'UPDATE' section. Be sure to check back often through today to find out about any change in conditions.