Friday, March 15, 2013

LDE M Flare in Progress - CME Watch In Effect!


   Out of nowhere! At this time there is a LDE (long duration event) M flare in progress . This M class solar flare event began today, March 15th just before 06:00 UTC and is currently at a M1.2 reading. The source of this LDE M flare is sunspot 1692 that is located in the very northern center of the solar disk..  Long duration events such as we are seeing right now are commonly associated with CME's. Because of this, we will be watching close for any signs of a CME that may be ejected toward Earth as well as what sunspot this event took place around. 
New Updates added! Click on the report title to view full report & all new updates.

Today's M flare event started taking place at the same time SWPC issued an alert that there is a Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse. This indicated that the CME we were expecting for March 15th has now arrived



SWPC Alert:

Issue Time: 2013 Mar 15 0535 UTC
SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2013 Mar 15 0526 UTC
Deviation: 23 nT
Station: BOU
Credit: SWPC Alerts

This is a significant event. There IS a CME!

This IS Earth directed.

We can see on the most recent STEREO A & B images that there is indeed a bright CME.
Due to the location of sunspot 1692 where this CME came from, there is a very strong chance that this CME has a direct shot at Earth.




 

UPDATE: @ 22:10 UTC Friday, March 15, 2013

Something we noticed while looking at the SDO movie for all of today and wanted to add. Directly after today's M flare & CME, the southern coronal hole on the Earth facing side of the sun expanded and opened a large Coronal Hole area just north of the main southern coronal hole
 

UPDATE: @ 17:43 UTC Friday, March 15, 2013


What an eventful weekend this is turning out to be! The CME from today's event is expected to arrive  around 17:00 UTC Saturday March 16 - 03:00 UTC Sunday March 17 (that is 1pm EST Sat. March 16 - 11pm EST Sat. March 16). This was a slower CME, so we suspect it might even take till late on Sunday March 16th to arrive. (couple that with, us now being under the effects of a CME arrival that took place on March 12. and a high speed Coronal Wind stream.)
Also keep in mind, that Sunspot 1692 that produced this event, will be directly Earth facing over this next week. More events may be in the making... stay tuned

Event Issue Date: 2013-03-15 09:23:51.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2013-03-16 16:59:03.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 4 hours

Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 4.3 Re
Credit: NASA ISWA
 
 
New SWPC Update:
2013-03-15 18:14 UTC G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storm Expected An Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in conjunction with an R1 (Minor) solar flare radio blackout in the early hours of March 15th. This CME is expected to arrive late on March 16th, with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming forecast for the 16th and G2 (Moderate) storming forecast for the 17th. Stay tuned for updates
Credit: SWPC
 
 
Today on SpaceWeather
POSSIBLE EARTH-DIRECTED CME: A magnetic filament snaking around sunspot AR1692 erupted on March 15th at about 0600 UT. The slow explosion, which took hours to unfold, produced an M1-class solar flare and a bright CME. SOHO (the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory) captured the CME just as it was leaving the sun:
The central location of the explosion combined with multiple views of the CME from SOHO and NASA's twin STEREO spacecraft suggest that the cloud is heading almost directly toward Earth. If so, an impact would likely occur in 2 to 3 days, setting the stage for weekend auroras. Stay tuned for refined estimates of the arrival time.



 


Newest image from SDO where we can see the Flaring sunspot region


Ace Conditions as of 07:32 UTC March 15


8 comments:

  1. I'm SO THANKFUL FOR YOUR JOB! We are one!

    ReplyDelete
  2. In laymans terms what would this mean to US?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. we have a page for that :)
      located on the Solar Q&A Tab at the top

      How Do Solar Flares Affect People and Earth?
      http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/p/how-do-solar-flares-affect-people-and.html

      Delete
  3. i find it curious that the geomagnetic impulse that the earth experienced (as a result of the first c class flare's cme, yes?) began mere minutes before the latest M class flare.

    compare haarp geomagnetic chart timing to goes x-ray chart timing.

    coincedence?

    i'm not so sure.....

    and further, the duration of the geomagnetic pulse was roughly equal to the duration of the flare.

    !

    ReplyDelete
  4. Really good stuff MSA Crew!

    Site is amazing - Expect a lot more traffic from Today : )

    S'C.

    ReplyDelete

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