Saturday, March 16, 2013

CME Arrival Due Today - Updated Hourly

   Today we are awaiting the arrival of a Earth directed CME that was ejected from the solar surface on March 15, 2013. While we wait for this CME to arrive, we thought it would be a good time to update everyone with the info we have on this CME. We have our original report on this CME that you can view HERE.  A geomagnetic storm watch is in effect for the next 24-48 hours when this CME is expected to arrive with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm expected for the Saturday March 16th and G2 (Moderate) storming expected for Sunday March 17th. (click HERE to view the Geomagnetic Storm Scales) 
Any and All updates will be added to the bottom of this report in the spacial 'UPDATE' section. Be sure to check back often through today to find out about any change in conditions.

CME arrival is due Today:
March 16th @ 17:00 UTC - March 17th @ 03:00 UTC
March 16th @ 1pm EST - 11pm EST
March 16th @ 10am PST - 8pm PST
(all times are +/- 6hr)
*this CME was traveling away from the solar surface at a speed of  900 km/s (2 million mph) when it left the solar surface.

Event Issue Date: 2013-03-15 09:23:51.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2013-03-16 16:59:03.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 4 hours

Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 4.3 Re

***NOAA SWPC still have the CME arrival for Saturday March 16th, but they are now calling for a G2 geomagnetic storm on Sunday March 17, 2013 (click here for this info)

Issue Time: 2013 Mar 15 1712 UTC
WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Mar 16: G1 (Minor) Mar 17: G2 (Moderate) Mar 18: None (Below G1)
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.
Credit: SWPC

***SpaceWeather is reporting that this latest CME is not due to arrive at all until Sunday March 17, 2013 (a whole day later than SWPC has stated) (click Here for this info)
"The CME left the sun traveling some 900 km/s (2 million mph). Three-dimensional computer models based on observations from SOHO and NASA's twin STEREO probes predict the CME will cross the void between sun and Earth in two days or less. NOAA forecasters estimate a 70% chance of polar geomagnetic storms when the cloud arrives on March 17th."
Credit: SpaceWeather

   There is a increase in low energy protons being picked up at the GOES satellite proton monitor. This was brought on by the LDE M1.2 solar flare and resulting CME that took place on March 15th (the same CME we are expecting today). At the time of this report, proton levels remain below the S1 solar radiation storm levels, but have remaind on a steady slow rise since this event started
You can vew the Solar Radiation Storms levels HERE

Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (16 Mar, 17 Mar).
Credit: SWPC
Image to the left: ACE Low Energy Protons (24hr)

SWPC Alert
Issue Time: 2013 Mar 16 1647 UTC

WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Valid From: 2013 Mar 16 1645 UTC
Valid To: 2013 Mar 17 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies
Credit: SWPC Alerts

To the left we see an image of the Global D-Region Map as it appears right now. We can see it is lighting up around the north and south poles. this is because there is a Polar Cap Absorption event going on right now.
This is from the increase in protons that are coming through the polar regions right now (see above). The higher the proton count, the higher the reading level on the D-Region map, and the farther toward the equator we see the reading increase.

How Do Solar Flares Affect People and the Earth?



   What are the Human Impacts of Solar Storms and Space Weather?
   With us expecting a CME arrival sometime today, a lot of people have been asking "How does solar weather effects people. We have a page that might answer some of your questions concerning this matter.
Read more:

 No new updates at this time. Check back in a few


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