Tuesday, March 12, 2013

Long duration C-Class Flare in progress

   We noticed a filament eruption today near Sunspot 1691 - 1690 located in the northern-center area of the solar disk. 

This filament eruption resulted in a 2 hour long LDE C-Class solar flare that occurred starting at 10:17 UTC and ended at 12:25 UTC 
  
We will update this report if we see a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) associated with this event. 





   UPDATE: There was a  CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) produced in association with todays event as we can see on STEREO B (here to the left). At this time the CME appears to have a mostly northward trajectory. We are still waiting on STEREO A to update so we can better determine if this CME  will be geoeffective. 
 *Continue to check back often for further updates and alerts as today's solar events unfold.


 

Update 01:03 UTC Wednesday, March 13, 2013

 
The CME associated with today's Filament eruption is at least partially Earth directed. CME time of arrival is expected sometime early in the day on Friday March 15, 2013
 
From SWPC:
 Coronagraph data from NASA SOHO/LASCO as well as NASA STEREO
A/B indicate that a CME occurred on the Earth side of the Sun and
produced an asymmetric full halo towards LASCO/Earth with a fairly
significant northerly bias. However, the transient also appears to have
a southern flank of ejecta moving along the Sun-Earth line. Multiple
independent measurements during analysis provided consensus that the
transient had a velocity in the low 700 km/s range at departure.
(see the Enlil Model located in the top-left hand column of this page)
 
Solar Wind Forecast...
Solar wind is expected to continue at nominal levels for day 1 (13 Mar).
The onset of CH/HSS effects with positive polarity are expected on day 2
(14 Mar). The polarity is consistent with recurrence and a positive
polarity CH feature is visible on the sun moving into a position
potentially favorable for geoeffectiveness.
This is consistent with
Wang-Sheeley-Arge model forecasts as well. Peak solar wind speed from
this feature is expected in the 500 km/s to 550 km/s range. Early on day
3 (15 Mar), the aforementioned CME is forecast to arrive and should
increase the solar winds above 600 km/s along with increased total field
(Bt) strength and periods of negative Bz.

 
 

Space Weather Alert

 
Issue Time: 2013 Mar 12 2041 UTC
WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Mar 13: None (Below G1) Mar 14: None (Below G1) Mar 15: G1 (Minor)
THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine
Credit: Space Weather Alerts
 
 

 


 



   Here is the animated SDO AIA Composite the the sun at the time of today's LDE C flare.





SDO AIA 304



Close up









                                                                                

   All six regions remain visible and showed little change during the last 24 hours.
 Two new regions gets numbered overnight, the first is region 1695 which rotated over the north-east limb. This region now appears to be a single spot HSX Alpha region at 60 millionths in size. Region 1696 emerged onto the solar disc as a CSO Beta type group at 40 millionths in size.
Only one C1 solar flare took place yesterday which took place from region 1695 peaking at 16:55 UTC.
 

 

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  2. my guess is that we've now reached the close of this session.

    please note that one cme headed to earth (1st) then the second headed for jupiter.

    can anybody guess when the next session will be?

    here's a useful tool : http://www.dynamicdiagrams.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/orrery_2011_bce.swf

    remember that it is the perpendicular that matters.
    and that mercury facilittes...

    i am anticipating serious fireworks....


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