Sunday, March 17, 2013

CME Impact! March 17, 2013



 

   The full halo CME from Friday March 15th has arrived  at Earth early Sunday morning at around 05:30 UTC . The Solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field show a shock signature from this CME now arriving.
At the time the CME came in contact with Earths magnetosphere a geomagnetic disturbance commenced with the Bz fluctuating between minus 20 and plus 15 nanoTeslas.
The Solar wind speed jumped to around 700 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field Bz component is turbulent around -15 nT.
This brought on a moderate Geomagnetic storm.



   At this time geomagnetic storm level has reached storm levels of G2 (K=6). These conditions are expected to persist well into the early morning hours of tomorrow, Monday March 18.

Aurora may be seen as low as Montana, Michigan, New York, Wisconsin to Washington state, as well as other high latitude regions. To know where Auroras can be seen, look for the Aurora ovation model located in the left hand column of this site.


Any and All updates will be added to the bottom of this report in the spacial 'UPDATE' section. Be sure to check back often through today to find out about any change in conditions.





An intense aurora flames over Duluth, Minn. this Sunday morning before dawn. The whole northern sky was lit up.

Image and Credit: Bob King







Here is an amazing display of blue-purple rays topped the green aurora just before dawn Sunday morning.

Image and Credit: Bob King








Great images coming in also from America, Canada and New Zeland!

See them here














   Strangely, the number of sunspots numbers decreased along with one sunspot group disappearing (region 1694) and the total area of all sunspot regions increased from 650 to 890 millionths. Regions 1692, 1696 and 1698 showed the most growth.

   Five low level C class solar flares took place yesterday, the majority from region 1698. The most impressive was a long duration C2 flare peaking at 05:39 UTC  from region 1698.

   A filament erupted around 1400z from the north-west quadrant. A coronal mass ejection was observed with this event.  Due to the location of it (north-west) this will not geo-effective.
 
 

 
 

UPDATED @ 20:25 UTC Sunday March 17, 2013

 
 
   We have a new CME today that appears to be at least somewhat earth directed from an unnumbered region in the South East area. We are waiting for more updated images so that we can better determine if this CME is going to be geoeffective.
 
 
 
 
 

 

 

UPDATED @ 19:11 UTC Sunday March 17, 2013


Ace Solar Conditions @ 19:11
Solar Wind Speed: 608.6km/sec
Density: 3.0
Bz (north/south component of solar wind) : -7.2



   The Wing Kp Model now has a predicted forecast for a Kp9
The solar wind speed is fast enough, the Bz is south, now all we need is a tad more density thrown into the mix to really kick this storm into high gear.


   We can see how big today's CME shock was on Earths magnetosphere by looking at the HAARP Magnetometer readings for today.

   We are currently under the effects of a S1 Solar Radiation Storm. This proton rise was brought on by the LDE M1.2 solar flare and resulting CME that took place on March 15th (the same CME that arrived today) and has continued into today.

Issue Time: 2013 Mar 17 1900 UTC
SUMMARY: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Begin Time: 2013 Mar 16 1940 UTC
Maximum Time: 2013 Mar 17 0700 UTC
End Time: 2013 Mar 17 0825 UTC
Maximum 10MeV Flux: 16 pfu
NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor


UPDATED @ 17:26 UTC Sunday March 17, 2013


Ace Solar Conditions @ 16:58
Solar Wind Speed: 630.9km/sec
Density: 5.6
Bz (north/south component of solar wind) : -8.5

The solar wind direction (Bz) has remained in the negative (southern) through most of the day. This is the main cause of the geomagnetic storm we are having at this time.
If we see a rise in Density, with the Bz remaining negative, we could see a larger level geomagnetic storm today. We will be monitoring this situation close and will report on any changes.


New Report from SWPC
 2013-03-17 15:53 UTC Geomagnetic Storm Ongoing... G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm conditions have been observed and continued storming is possible throughout today (the 17th) as Earth remains under the influence of this coronal mass ejection (CME). Additionally, the small S1 (Minor) radiation storm associated with this event has decreased below the event threshold and continues a slow decay toward background levels. Stay tuned for updates
 
 
issue Time: 2013 Mar 17 1713 UTC
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2013 Mar 17 1700 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1500-1800 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state
 

6 comments:

  1. mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

    :D


    !!!!

    ReplyDelete
  2. Replies
    1. Great updates ninz!

      And a good day/evening all together im at work grrr

      But next days free :)

      Delete
    2. try to find time to look up tonight! might get a good show!! :)

      Delete

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