Friday, January 20, 2012

Solar Activity Update Jan 20, 2012

   Sunspot regions 1401 & 1402 show no signs of decay. Today both regions still hold a chance of M/X flares.
NOAA has chances for flares today as 50% chance for M flares, 05% chance for X flares.
This is a overall daily chance NOAA assigns to the earth facing side of the sun.
To see the chances within each region throughout the day, we head over to the Bardford University ASAP solar flare predictions model. This model is updated each 2min based on changes seen in the SDO HMI images. We see that at this time region 1401 poses a 52% chance for M flares and 41% chance for X flare.

   Today we are expecting a possible glancing blow from a CME that occurred on Jan 16th
View the Jan 16th report here:
We will keep an eye on the nict magnetosphere simulation for signs of this CME arrival and will report on the status at that time.

   There is a rise in the Proton monitor today. This is due to the LDE/CME we saw yesterday.
Site Update: We have now added a list of expected CMEs to the right hand column of each page, labeled "CME's Expected"
We will add CMEs we are expecting in there so that we can all keep track of whats expected and when. Just click on the expected date to view the original report.


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Check back soon for more updates! :)