Sunday, January 22, 2012

Another LDE M Flare and 2 CME's - Jan 23 2012

Update @ 22:18 UTC Jan 23, 2012:
 
Event Summery:
-The CME's are Earth directed.
-CME speed is 2200 km/s
-Will arrive on Jan 24, 2012 - 1 day after ejection 
-There was a R2 radio Blackout with this M flare
-There was Proton event associated this this event
-Strongest Proton event since 2003
-S3 Solar Radiation Storm is now in progress
Read full report for all details!



*A strong S3 Level radiation storm is still in progress.
This is the strongest proton event since 2003!

 NOAA Correction and New Data Update:
Issued 16:30 UTC Jan 24, 2012
Here we see a plot of the Protons and it shows the secondary increase of 10 MeV protons as the CME arrived.
Earlier, it was stated that the current Solar Radiation Storm was the largest since May 2005, when the 10 MeV protons exceeded over 3000 PFU. This was not correct.
At the time of the earlier post, this current Storm was the biggest since January 2005, when the 10 MeV flux was 5040 pfu. After the arrival of the CME earlier today, the 10 MeV flux again increased and we were at around 6300 pfu. This is now the largest Solar Radiation Storm since October 2003. (The Halloween Storms)
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/

*What is a Solar Radiation Storm? What are the effects?
Read the answer here:

D Region Absorption @ 19:10 UTC
 *EXTENDED WARNING:
Issue Time: 2012 Jan 23 1426 UTC
 Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Extension to Serial Number: 336
Valid From: 2012 Jan 23 0500 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2012 Jan 24 1900 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Predicted NOAA Scale: S3 - Strong
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/warnings_timeline.html


RADIATION STORM IN PROGRESS: Solar protons accelerated by this morning's M9-class solar flare are streaming past Earth. On the NOAA scale of radiation storms, this one ranks S3, which means it could, e.g., cause isolated reboots of computers onboard Earth-orbiting satellites and interfere with polar radio communications. An example of satellite effects: The "snow" in this SOHO coronagraph movie is caused by protons hitting the observatory's onboard camera

*Geomagnetic activity is expected to reach minor storm levels by mid Jan. 24 due to the arrival of the halo CME of today. During the past 24 hours, minor storm conditions were observed at planetary levels due to the arrival of the CME of Jan. 19th.

Original Event Report:

We have another LDE M Flare Topping out at M8.7 @ 03:59 UTC and 2 CME's (possibly a 3rd smaller one). The Xray flux was on the rise. Right when we thought it was over and about to start dropping back down, it started rising again!
Right now, it is on a slow drop.
We will continue to monitor the situation and update with any new findings! :)






ALMOST-X FLARE AND CME: This morning, Jan. 23rd around 0359 UT, big sunspot 1402 erupted, producing a long-duration M9-class solar flare. The explosion's M9-ranking puts it on the threshold of being an X-flare, the most powerful kind. The Solar and Heliosphere Observatory (SOHO) and the STEREO-Behind spacecraft have both detected a CME rapidly emerging from the blast site. Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab estimate a velocity of 2200 km.
There is little doubt that the cloud is heading in the general direction of Earth. A preliminary inspection of SOHO/STEREO imagery suggests that the CME will deliver a strong glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field on Jan. 24-25 as it sails mostly north of our planet.

  
   The main center of the Flare is coming from sunspot region 1402.
   Here you can see these CME's already showing up on LASCO C3 @ 04:12 UTC
   Here we see these CME's on STEREO B @ 04:40

    Looking on SDO we can see a CME produced just before the flux hit the M1 area. This occurred just before the flux took a jump yet again. It was from a magnetic connection between sunspot regions 1401 and 1402. as well as a small CME from sunspot region 1405 that lays a bit farther to the east

   Update: The Xray flux took another jump, and when it did, yet another CME was produced from sunspot region 1402. This makes a total of 3 CME's
Here is the Global D absorption Map at the time of the M8.7 solar flare

There is a now a Proton event in effect: 
Space Weather Message Code: WARPX1
Serial Number: 336
Issue Time: 2012 Jan 23 0501 UTC

WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Valid From: 2012 Jan 23 0500 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Jan 23 1700 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor





We will continue to monitor this situation and add updates as we have them!
Keep Checking Back!

11 comments:

  1. Thanks, NiN! We didn't need this right now.

    Hawaii has had 4 earthquakes - one right after the other:

    http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.php

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  2. yes we are watching that situation close as well.
    all this is reminding me of last march!

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  3. hoopity: wow! bizarre!

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  4. Hey Hoppity :)
    so glad to have you over here!
    take a seat and make yourself at home ^^

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  5. omg passed another event...great work ninz

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  6. could you please check inbox if you have time..solen queen :)

    thanks for the clean up i still hope i will learn to post hahaha

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  7. There appears to be an alteration of speeds in the suns magnetic bands. Also, whenever the Earth's magnetic fields are severly retarded, it indicates an upcoming exchange of energy whether it be solar flare or plasma.

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  8. Very magic ah, I'm very interested in this universe astronomy.

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