Saturday, January 28, 2012

Solar Activity Update - Jan 28, 2012

   Update 20:52 UTC Jan 28, 2012 :

We are currently having a S2 Solar radiation Storm that was brought on by yesterdays X1.7 solar flare that peaked at 18:33 UTC Jan 27, 2012.
Proton event conditions at this time are ongoing with a slight drop in protons now occurring.

   NOAA Space Weather Alert:

Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Valid From: 2012 Jan 27 1826 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2012 Jan 29 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Predicted NOAA Scale: S2 - Moderate

What is a Solar Radiation Storm?
What are the effects of a Solar Radiation Storm?

   Since we had the X1.7 flare yesterday, the Xray flux has remained at fairly low levels. With that largest flare registered in the last 21hrs being a C1.0 at 15:30 UTC Jan 28th

   We are expecting a possible glancing blow from the CME that was produced on Jan 27th in association with the X1.7 Flare we had.
For your convenience, we now keep a list of all possible expected CME's.
You can find this list in the right hand column, directly under our Member list. If your ever wondering if were expecting a CME, and when, we will have it listed.
The original Goddard Space Weather Lab report had the CME moving at a speed of 2500 km/s and giving a possible Earth glancing blow on Jan 28-29. They have now changed the arrival time to Jan. 30-31.
Looking at the most recent STEREO HI2 image it would appear that if this CME does give a glancing blow, arrival would be sometime on Jan 29th.
We will update with a new report posting when the CME does arrive so be sure to check back often for updates

Image credit: solen

   A large recurrent southern Coronal Hole named CH496 was in a Earth facing position on Jan 23-25. The winds from this Coronal Hole arrived on Jan 27th 2012, though it was hard to observe the solar wind conditions yesterday due to the ACE sensors being put into safe mode from the arriving Proton storm.
NOAA Report on CH496:
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (28 January) due to
continued effects from the CH HSS.

   What do we see off to the right on STEREO A?
That would be Venus. Venus will be making a transit across STEREO A over the next few weeks.


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