Large Filament lift off southeast

Update 23:30 UTC:

The filament lift off we see here on the image to the left was maybe a result of a channel eruption

Right after that filament lift off we could see a rly nice explosion (ejecta) also seen on Stereo Ahead EUVI imagery
http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/browse/2012/04/19/behind_20120419_euvi_195_512.mpg

The CME looks really bright. Due to the location of the source (southwest) a direct hit will be probably unlikely. But a portion of it could strife us
 http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/browse/2012/04/19/behind_20120419_cor2_512.mpg

 

Region 1455 says Good bye

We have a new 7.0 C-Class Solar flare as you can see here on the GOES X-ray Flux chart.








We can confirm the location of this event. Its around the old Region 1455 which rotated off the limb yesterday.

We noticed some ejection on SDO AIA 304 Imagery but due to the location it will probably not geo effective




   Region 1463 get official numbered and is now a  DSO type group at 40 millionths in size
All regions increased in size yesterday, region 1459 increased by 110 millions and region 1460 increased by 120 millionths
Most of interest Region 1463. It shows up  several small magnetic delta structures in the central part of the region. So a M Flare from this Region is possible

Near M Flare (C8.9) from an unnumbered region

A near M flare a C 8.9 just took place. Peaking at 12:39 UTC.
http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/last_events/gev_20120418_1232.html

We can confirm the location of this event.
It a new region which emerged in the last couple hours. The region is close to the new numbered region 1462

A CME can be possible but we have to check more data

Update 17:50 UTC:
The new spot which is still growing in the southwest quadrant (near Region 1462). Fires up every single hour Mid to High Level C-Class flares
Looks harmonic as we can see on the GOES X-ray Flux Chart




We can see now on Stereo Ahead C2 Imagery
The C 8.9 flare was inbounded with a CME.
It looks not that large but its geo-effective as well

Stay tuned

New CME from northwest filament eruption

We have a new CME as seen on Stereo Images

CME apears to be earth directed

More investigation on this is needed
apears to be earth directed








Latest SDO AIA 304 shows us the source:

Source of this CME is a filament eruption in the northwest

M 1.7 Solar flare and Partial halo CME

UPDATE 04/17/2012 16:00 UTC

A few C-class flares and an M-class flare were observed during the past 24 hours. We expect active conditions with C-class and M-class flares possible. An M1.7 flare was observed by GOES on April 16, peaking at 17:40 UT. The flare originated from an active region (Catania 03; old Sunspot 1442/43) which appeared now on the east limb. The accompanying CME propagated with the speed of about 1300 km/s.

Reporting to Solen.info:

A partial halo CME was observed after the M1 event in region S1592. There's a chance of a flank CME impact on April 19

 http://www.solen.info/solar/

   Region 1459 increased at a more rapid pace to a FHI group at 260 millionths, making it the largest visible sunspot group

New region S1592 [N12E80](associated to the M1 event) rotated into view at the northeast limb and will be soon numbered 1461. nFurther C class and a slight chance of an M class flare are possible over the coming days

Video shows you the increasing Region 1459:

Geomagnetic Storm / Mid Latitude Aurora

     The Coronal Hole High Speed Stream winds have stired up a G1 storm and a mid latitude Aurora. Will you be able to see the Aurora from your location?  Click here OVATION Auroral Forecast, to see where the Aurora  can be see from. Research more about the Aurora in our Q an A guides Q&A/Guides. The effects of the CHHSS are expected to continue through the 13th before diminishing on the 14th and returning to quiet levels on the 15th.

  
    Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 682
Issue Time: 2012 Apr 13 0234 UTC


ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2012 Apr 13 0207 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.

Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Rapidly developing Sunspot Region bursts onto the surface.S1576 [N07E23], (1455?)

     Beginning at approximately 19:54UTC on April 10 2012 a new Sunspot Region exploded onto the surface in a spectacular display from new region S1576 [N07E23], having just emerged with an east-west inversion line. This region is not yet numbered by NOAA/SWPC, but it is anticipated that it will be numbered Region 1455 later on today. This new region is shown imaged left by the SDO Magnetogram.  An animated gif of the Magnetogram showing the rapid development of this region is below and can be viewed by clicking on the image. This region will be rotating toward a more Earth  aligned position over the next couple of days increasing the chances of activity from this region becoming geoeffective.

Solar Sector Boundary Crossing

     A solar sector boundary crossing (polarity of the IMF reverses) indicated by ACE data has been responsible for the unsettled geomagnetic field. A high latitude Aurora Watch will be in effect over the next 24-48 hours. A favorably positioned negative polarity coronal hole is expected to continue to keep our geomagnetic field unsettled through March 29, 2011 UTC.  Old Sunspot Region 1429 is expected to return to the solar disk midday on  March 29th which should increase M-class flare probabilities.

     SOHO LASCO observed a full asymmetric halo CME on the 26th @ 23:12 UTC which was associated with Type II & Type IV radio sweeps.  This CME was determined to be a backsided event according to NOAA and not expected to be geoeffective.

      Although there was a large Sf and CME from old Sunspot Region 1429 that contributed to this halo CME there was also a filament eruption from the NE limb immediatly after, followed by a C5.3 flare the 27th @ 02:50 UTC with an associated CME (seen on SDO) from Sunspot Region  1444.  We expect this latter CME to be geoeffective.

     Here on the left we can see a CME associated with the C5.3 Sf from Sunspot Region 1444 as seen from SDO AIA 304 on March 27th at 2:57UTC.

Sunspot 1444 Growing Fast

  We are seeing some rapid growth today within Sunspot Rregion 1444 located in the northeast region of the solar disk. Region 1444 is yet another reversed polarity sunspot located in the northern hemisphere of the solar disk. We are watching this Region for continued growth as it moves into a more Earth facing position.

  
   The last reversed polarity sunspot we saw was Sunspot Region 1429 (also located in the northern hemisphere) that started its earth facing activity with a M3.3 flare on March 2, 2012 . To the left, we can see old Region 1429 as it appears on the STEREO Behind EUVI 195 image from today. 1429 has survived its transit on the backside of the Sun, and should be coming back into an Earth facing position around March 28th-30th.
You can view all reports we did on sunspot region 1429 Here:
http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/search?q=1429&max-results=20&by-date=true


.

M1.0 Flare With GOES 15 Back Online

   GOES 15 is working again as of 16:00 UTC today. Just a few hours into the Xray monitor being back in business, we have a "registered" M1.0 flare peaking at 19:40 UTC. This solar flare came from old sunspot region 1431 as it rotates back into a earth facing direction in the far southeast limb.

2012-03-23 16:50 UTC  SWPC GOES Data Again Available- Just in: GOES 15 xray, particle and magnetometer data are now again accessible as of about 1600 UTC (noon EDT) today. Imagery should be available again at approximately 1900 UTC.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/

 

It's anyones guess on how many larger flares we have missed while the monitor was down.

Solar Activity Update - CME Impact + M1.8 Flare

   At 13:40 UTC March 15th a geomagnetic sudden impulse was detected indicating that the CME we were expecting today has arrived. This CME was produced in association with a M7.9 solar flare from Sunspot Region 1429 on March 13, 2012. Solar winds reaching as high as 770.5 km/s and a proton density as high as 4.7 p/cc have been picked up at the ACE satellite. With the high wind speed and the Bz tilted south (-) this CME impact is stiring up a G1-Kp5 geomagnetic storm at this time.

View original report here:

 http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/03/strong-m79-flare-from-region-1429-march.html

Check back often for further updates and alerts on this event.

All updates will be added to the bottom of this report.

ACE Readings @ 14:49 UTC.
Thursday March 15, 2012:
Solar Wind: 697.7 km/sec
Density: 3.5 protons/cc
Bz: -7.2
By: -3.6

Space Weather Message Code: SUMSUD
Serial Number: 149
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 15 1314 UTC

SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2012 Mar 15 1309 UTC
Deviation: 27 nT
Station: Boulder

Strong M7.9 Flare from Region 1429 - March 13, 2012

   A strong LDE Solar Flare of M7.9 peaking at 17:41 UTC has occurred around Sunspot Region 1429. There has been a slow drop in the Xray flux, indicating that there was a CME produced in association with this flare.
Update: there was a CME produced in association with this flare, see below for details.

Check back often for further updates and alerts on this event.

All updates will be added to the bottom of this report.

   Region 1429 on 60^o - 70^o longitude right now. With this CME that was produced today from 1429, this degree of longitude could cause a connection between the CME and Earth. Read all about this 60^o west longitude connection here
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2005/10jun_newstorm/

   Here was can see there was a sharp rise in the proton flux immediately following the M7.9 Flare. This is another indication of a CME produced in association with this flare event

     The UMA proton flux forecaster model shown here to the left indicates that Earth is currently magnetically connected to Sunspot Region 1429, and that a SEP event is in progress.  This system is able to predict the onset and intensity of the first hours of well connected Solar Proton (SEP) events.  This forecaster identifies if there is a magnetic connection between the associated flare and the Earth, by correlating X-ray and differential proton data at 1 AU.

CME Arrival from March 10th M8.4 Solar Flare

   The CME associated with the March 10, 2012 M8.4 solar flare has arrived. At 08:54 UTC ACE detected the shock of the incoming CME. The SWPC originally forcasted the arrival time of this CME March 12th around 1800 UTC.  At this time the CME impact is stirring up a  G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storm. Conditions are expected to continue through today as the bulk of the CME passed Earth as the bulk of the CME passes Earth.  Solar wind speeds have been recorded as high as 774.8 km/sec and Density as high as 51.9 protons/cm

View original report on the M8.4 LDE flare + CME here:

http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/03/m84-lde-solar-flare-at-sunspot-region.html

Issue Time: 2012 Mar 12 0854 UTC
WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2012 Mar 12 0915 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Mar 12 1015 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2012 Mar 12 0842 UTC

Be sure to check back often for further updates and alerts on this event.

All updates will be added to the bottom of this report.



With geomagnetic storming expected over the following hours, an aurora watch for high and mid latitudes is in effect for March 12, 2012.

Want to know if you will see the auroras where you live?

We have now added the real time image of the aurora ovation to the left hand column of our site. Clicking on the image will take you to the NOAA Aurora ovation site where you can view all aurora details

http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation/

Bookmark My Solar Alerts blog and come back at anytime to see if you will be able to view auroras in your area.

Geomagnetic Storm Levels and Effects - List

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/#GeomagneticStorms

Update 18:14 UTC March 12, 2012:

There seams to be a fair amount of confusion floating around about the last 2 CME arrivals. Are they the two we have been expecting? Why are they not arriving when forecasted to arrive? Are we still expecting the CME associated with the March 10, 2012 M8.4 flare? We have put together the following in an attempt to help make the answers to these questions a bit more clear.

We are confident that on March 11, 2012 we saw the arrival of the 1st expected CME produced on March 9, 2012 in association with the M6.3 solar flare.
We are also confidant we are now seeing the arrival of the CME produced on March 10, 2012 in association with the M8.4 solar flare.
We base this on the ejection time & ejection speed of both CME's, as well as the Goddard Space Weather Lab CME arrival forecast that is posted directly after the events.

The March 9th M6.3 Flare + CME:
-estimated ejection speed of 750 km/s
-expected arrival time for the CME is on March 11, 2012 around 06:49UTC (+ or - 7hrs.)
-time we saw arrival - March 11 2012, at 11:59 UTC
http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/03/cme-arrival-from-march-9th-m63-solar.html
(5hrs after the estimated arrival time,  there was a +/- of 7hrs on this CME arrival. This CME arrived within the expected arrival window)

-Spaceweather report on this CME arrival:
"CME IMPACT (MORE TO COME): An interplanetary shock wave buffeted Earth's magnetic field on March 11th at 11:59 UT. It was probably the first of two CMEs expected to arrive today."
http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=11&month=03&year=2012


The March 10th M8.4 Flare + CME:
-estimated ejection speed between 1200 - 1400 km/s.
-expected arrival time for the CME is on March 12, 2012 around 18:00UTC (+ or - 6hrs.)
-time we saw arrival - March 12 2012, at 08:54 UTC
http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/03/cme-arrival-from-march-10th-m83-solar.html
(9hrs before the estimated arrival time, there was a +/- of 7hrs on this CME arrival. This CME arrived 2hrs before the expected arrival window)

-Spaceweather report on this CME arrival:
"WEEKEND SOLAR FLARE: Sunspot AR1429 is still erupting this weekend. On Saturday, March 10th, it produced a powerful M8-class flare that almost crossed the threshold into X-territory."
"In addition, the explosion propelled yet another CME toward Earth. According to a forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the cloud will hit our planet's magnetosphere on March 12th at 1803 UT (+/- 7 hr), possibly sparking a new round of geomagnetic storms."
http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=11&month=03&year=2012
GEOMAGNETIC STORM UNDERWAY: A moderate G2-class geomagnetic storm is underway following the arrival of a CME on March 12th at ~0930 UT.
http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=12&month=03&year=2012

Update 18:09 UTC March 12, 2012:

Solar winds are remaining in the 700km/sec range. With the Bz remaining in the positive range this is keeping the Kp index at a Kp6 (a G2 geomagnetic storm). If the Bz turns south into a negative range with the solar winds remaining at over the 700km/sec range, a G3 storm could be produced. We will keep monitoring this situation and report any significant changes.

ACE Conditions @ 18:07 UTC
March 12, 2012
Solar Wind Speed: 774.8 km/sec
Density: 1.0 protons/cm
Bz: +3.4
By: +9.1

CME Arrival from March 9th M6.3 Solar Flare

   We are now seeing the 1st signs of the March 9, 2012 CME show up at ACE at 11:59 UTC. Coming in a bit later than the expected time of around 06:49UTC (+ or - 6hrs.), this CME is forecasted to cause G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storming as the bulk of the CME passes Earth. 

View original report on the M6.3 flare + CME here:

http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/03/m63-flare-earth-directed-cme-march-9.html

ACE Readings @ 01:16 UTC.
Monday March 12, 2012:
Solar Wind: 463.6 km/sec
Density: 17.1 protons/cm
Bz: -0.3
By: +4.9

Be sure to check back often for further updates and alerts on this event.

All updates will be added to the bottom of this report.

Original March 11th CME Alert By NOAA
NOAA Aleart Issued for March 11, 2012:
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 09 2209 UTC
WATCH: Geomagnetic A-index of 50 or greater predicted
NOAA Scale: Periods reaching the G3 (Strong) Level Likely
Valid for UTC Day: 2012 Mar 11

Geomagnetic Storm Levels and Effects - List
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/#GeomagneticStorms

Update 00:23 UTC March 12, 2012:

Today's CME arrival turned out to be more of a glancing blow than expected. Because of this, the geomagnetic storm watch issued for today has been canceled. An aurora watch for high latitude viewers is still in effect.

Issue Time: 2012 Mar 11 1951 UTC
CANCEL WATCH: Geomagnetic A-index of 50 or greater predicted for UTC Day 2012 Mar 11
Cancel Serial Number: 44
Original Issue Time: 2012 Mar 09 2209 UTC

Comment: Conditions are not present for strong geomagnetic storming.
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

In Related Solar News:

The ongoing Proton Event that began on March 7, 2012 continues into it's 4th full day. We are currently at a S3 (Strong) Solar Radiation Storm level. This is expected to continue through the day.

Solar Radiation Storm Levels and Effects - List

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/#SolarRadiationStorms

NOAA Alerts For This Proton Storm:

Issue Time: 2012 Mar 11 0935 UTC
SUMMARY: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 07 1015 UTC
Maximum Time: 2012 Mar 08 1115 UTC
End Time: 2012 Mar 11 0650 UTC
Maximum 10MeV Flux: 6530 pfu
NOAA Scale: S3 - Strong

Issue Time: 2012 Mar 11 0632 UTC
CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 1870
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 10 0410 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 9380 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems

M8.4 LDE Solar Flare at Sunspot Region 1429 - March 10, 2012

   A strong M8.4 LDE solar flare has occurred at sunspot region 1429. The M8.4 flare peaked at 17:27 UTC and remained at that range until 17:44 UTC when we started to see a very slow drop. There was a bright CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) produced in association with this M8.4 flare.

This CME is Earth directed. According to a forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the cloud will hit our planet's magnetosphere on March 12th at 1803 UT (+/- 7 hr)


The latest updates as well as alerts and warnings will be posted directly below so be sure to check back often.

   This M8.4 LDE flare occurred just under 2 hours after we saw a C8.0 flare peaking at 15:52 UTC from sunspot region 1430. There was also a CME seen produced in association with this C8.0 flare.This makes 2 CME's that were ejected today in Earths direction. More on this to come. Check back soon

  

   The Earth directed bright CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) that was associated with today's M8.4 flare as seen today on STEREO A

Update 22:11 UTC March 10, 2012:

From SWPC:

Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z

to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was high.  Region 1430 (N21W42) produced
a C8 flare at 10/1552Z and Region 1429 (N18W26) produced a long
duration M8 flare at 10/1744Z with an associated Tenflare (459 sfu)
and a Type IV radio sweep.  Both flares had associated CMEs.  The
first CME appeared in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 10/1624Z with
the majority of the ejecta off the NW limb.  The second CME,
associated with the M8 flare, first appeared in C2 imagery at
10/1800Z.  Further analysis will be done as imagery becomes
available, however initial analysis indicated the event produced a
full-halo CME with an estimated plane-of-sky speed between 1200 -
1400 km/s.  Region 1429 remained a large Ekc spot class with a
Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic class.  A new region appeared on the ENE
limb near Region 1432 (N16E52).  Close proximity to the limb made a
detailed analysis of this new region difficult.

Update 22:11 UTC March 10, 2012:

From Spaceweather

WEEKEND SOLAR FLARE: Sunspot AR1429 is still erupting this weekend. On Saturday, March 10th, it produced a powerful M8-class flare that almost crossed the threshold into X-territory. In New Mexico, amateur radio astronomer Thomas Ashcraft recorded a series of shortwave bursts emanating from the blast site: audio. Also, the explosion propelled yet another CME toward Earth: forecast track. The cloud is expected to hit our planet's magnetosphere on March 12th around 1800 UT. A CME from an earlier explosion will arrive much sooner, however. Continue reading.....

INCOMING CME: A CME from sunspot AR1429 is nearing Earth. According to analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the cloud will arrive on March 11th at 0649 UT (+/- 7 hr). NOAA forecasters say the odds of a strong geomagnetic storm at that time is 50%

http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=10&month=03&year=2012

Update 20:02 UTC March 10, 2012:

*The M8.4 flare that started at 17:22 UTC today has now fallen to the C9 range @ 20:02 UTC, 2hrs 40min after it began.

M6.3 Flare + Earth Directed CME - March 9, 2012

   Sunspot Region 1429 has produced a  M6.3 solar flare at 03:22 UTC March 9, 2012. There was a Earth directed CME produced in association with this flare event. With a estimated ejection speed of  750 km/s the expected arrival time for the CME is on March 11, 2012 around 06:49UTC (+ or - 6hrs.)

We will update the details of this expected CME as more data becomes available.

Today there remains a strong chance for continued major flaring. NOAA has a 40% chance of an X-class solar flare today from sunspot region 1429.

Be sure to check back often for further updates on this event.

All updates will be added to the bottom of this report

   Here we can see the Earth directed CME as it appears on STEREO B

From NASA:
Event Issue Date: 2012-03-09 16:39:27.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-03-11 06:49:05.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 10 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 5.2 Re

   From solen:

Region 11429 [N17E03] lost penumbral area with the main penumbra fragmenting into smaller penumbrae. The region still has several magnetic delta structures and could produce further major flares. The region was the source of a long duration major M6.3 event peaking at 03:53 UTC on March 9. STEREO-B indicates that another full halo CME was produced by this event.

One magnetic delta structure was gone in region 11429 after the LDE and the center of the region is becoming quite open. Several new ARs had spots at 10:00 UTC, see the most recent high resolution CHARMAP. S1517 was located at S23E33, S1518 at S26E23 while S1519 was at N06W25. AR 11431 has developed slowly today, and there is spot development in the southern part of region 1428 as well.

http://www.solen.info/solar/

From SDIC:

Due to the position of the CME source region close to the solar central meridian, we expect a nearly central encounter of the resulting ICME, which will probably be a magnetic cloud with leading southward field. A strong geomagnetic storm (K = 7 or higher) is probable.

http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/

March 7th CME arrives after X 5.4 Solar Flare

   On March 7, 2012 Sunspot Region 1429 unleashed a X5.4 Solar Flare, Long Duration Event (LDE).  This X5.4 Solar Flare was associated with a type II and a type IV radio burst as well as a full halo, Coronal Mass Ejection (CME).  According to NASA the CME had an estimated plane of sky speed of 2200 km/s. The Interplanetary Shock of this CME arrived at the ACE spacecraft at 10:45 UTC signaling its immediate approach to Earth. 

We will be monitoring  the situation today as NOAA has forcast strong to severe geomagnetic storming while this CME interacts with Earth's magnetosphere.

The latest updates as well as alerts and warnings will be posted directly below so be sure to check back often.

                           

Updated @ 18:47 UT  - March 9, 2012

*They just took ACE out of safe mode.
Solar wind data is now coming in.

http://www2.nict.go.jp/y/y223/simulation/realtime/index.html
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/ace_rtsw_data.html

Solar winds speeds have been recorded at SOHO as high as 988.80 km/s

 *The SEP event continues into March 9, 2012. We are now into the 2nd full day of protons remaining above the event level. A S2 Solar Radiation Storm is in effect at this time

Read full report here

http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/03/solar-radiation-storm-in-progress.html

Solar Radiation Storm Levels

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/#SolarRadiationStorms

*We have posted a full report on todays M6.3 solar flare + Earth directed CME

View full report on this event here-

http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/03/m63-flare-earth-directed-cme-march-9.html

*There is a 40% chance today for further X-class solar flares from sunspot region 1429

*An aurora watch for high and mid latitudes is in effect for today, March 9, 2012

Solar Activity Update for March 7, 2012

   A S3-Strong Solar Radiation Storm is in Progress

View report for this event here:

 http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/03/solar-radiation-storm-in-progress.html

Issue Time: 2012 Mar 07 1417 UTC

ALERT: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfuBegin Time: 2012 Mar 07 1410 UTC

NOAA Scale: S3 - Strong

Potential Impacts: Radiation - Passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights may experience increasing radiation exposures. Astronauts on EVA (extra-vehicular activity) are exposed to elevated radiation levels.

Spacecraft - Single-event upsets to satellite operations, noise in imaging systems, and slight reduction of efficiency in solar panels are likely.

Radio - Degraded or episodically blacked-out polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation.

Update 17:40 UTC March 9, 2012:
This Solar Proton Event continues into today

Issue Time: 2012 Mar 09 1740 UTC
EXTENDED WARNING: Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected
Extension to Serial Number: 57
Valid From: 2012 Mar 07 0300 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2012 Mar 10 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

   Starting at around 04:29 UTC today, We had a CME arrival. This CME was caused by a filament that became unstable on March 4th and was ejected from the solar surface. 

View report for this event here:

http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/03/m20-lde-flare-from-sunspot-1429.html

A Kp6 (moderate G2) geomagnetic storm was reached today around 08:52 UTC. This G3 storm has now subsided to the current conditions of of a G1 storm.

There was also another CME that occurred on March 4th that could have combined with the filament and arrived at the same time. We will monitor solar conditions today and report on any changes that are seen.

Issue Time: 2012 Mar 07 1454 UTC
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2012 Mar 07 1448 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1200-1500 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state

Solar Radiation Storm in Progress

    Updated @ 17:24 UT March 7, 2012

     A SEP event is underway. We have become magnetically conected to Sunspot Region 1429.  At the time of this original post the 10MeV Integral Flux has exceeded 100pfu.

 NOAA Scale: S2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Radiation - Passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights may experience small, increased radiation exposures.

Spacecraft - Infrequent single-event upsets to satellites are possible.

Radio - Small effects on polar HF (high frequency) propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.. Additional flaring from region 1429 will rapidly increase this proton flux.  When our "foot point" location, the area that we are magnetically conected to the Sun at becomes located at or very near an active region the connection allows Solar Energetic Particles such as protons and electrons to travel an extremely fast and direct path to Earth during a Solar Flare from that region. These Solar Energetic Particles travel at approximately 80% the speed of light and start bombarding the Ionosphere, within a few hours of a Solar Flare.  Additionally, during these events, CME driven shocks contribute to accelerating these particles. This Event was precipitated by the X 5.4 flare released early March 7, 2012 at  00:40 UT from Sunspot Region 1429.

    Here we can see the proximity of Earths "Foot Point" location to Sunspot Region 1429  just prior to the X 5.4 Solar Flare. Given this interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) connection between Sunspot Region 1429 and the Earth, very energetic solar protons have began saturating the Ionosphere. A more delayed effect may result with the CME that was produced with this X flare.  Since the radial propagation speed is expecded to be < 1000km/s with the arrival of the associated CME expected tomorrow March 8, the high solar wind speed accompanying the shock , plus high plasma number densities with a strong southward IMF, we can expect a sudden storm commencement or (SSC).  These geomagnetic storms generally produce large magnetic disturbances due to ring current enhancements.

Updated Proton Flux at 17:24UT March 7, 2012
Space Weather Message Code: ALTPX3
Serial Number: 25
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 07 1417 UTC

ALERT: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 07 1410 UTC
NOAA Scale: S3 - Strong
Potential Impacts: Radiation - Passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights may experience increasing radiation exposures. Astronauts on EVA (extra-vehicular activity) are exposed to elevated radiation levels.
Spacecraft - Single-event upsets to satellite operations, noise in imaging systems, and slight reduction of efficiency in solar panels are likely.
Radio - Degraded or episodically blacked-out polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/warnings_timeline.html


Update - March 9, 2012 @ 17:40 UTC

SEP event continues into March 9, 2012. We are now into the 2nd full day of protons remaining above the event level. A S2 Solar Radiation Strom is in effect at this time

Solar Radiation Storm Levels

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/#SolarRadiationStorms

Issue Time: 2012 Mar 09 1740 UTC
EXTENDED WARNING: Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expectedExtension to Serial Number: 57
Valid From: 2012 Mar 07 0300 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2012 Mar 10 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Potential Impacts: An enhancement in the energetic portion of the solar radiation spectrum may indicate increased biological risk to astronauts or passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights. Additionally, energetic particles may represent an increased risk to all satellite systems susceptible to single event effects. This information should be used in conjunction with the current Solar Radiation Storm conditions when assessing overall impact

X5.4 Major Solar Flare from Region 1429 - March 7, 2012

   Updated 03:28 UTC March 7 2012 :

A major X5.4 solar flare has just occured at 00:24 UTC March 7, 2012 followed by a  X1.3 solar flare occurring at 01:14 UTC. 

The X5.4 & X1.3 flares came from sunspot region 1429. This event produced a R3 radio blackout.
Sunspot region 1429 is Earth directed and here was a large dence CME produced with this X class event.

The estimated arrival time of this CME is at between 05:00 and 11:00 UTC March 8th

Update March 9 2012 @ 15:49 UTC:

The CME associated with this event has arrived.

View full report here

http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/03/x54-solar-flare-cme-arrives.html

Update on the solar flares:
just issued from NOAA

2012-03-07 01:03   Strong Solar Eruption; Earth-Directed CME Likely
An R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout is now in progress, beginning about 7:00 p.m. EST today. The site of the eruption, previously active Region 1429, is now near center disk, so there's  high-potential of an earth-directed CME. In addition, expect the imminent beginning of a Solar Radiation Storm. Analysis now occurring on both fronts
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/

the Xray flux was slowly dropping after the X5.4 solar flare, it dropped to around the X1.0 level, and is right now on a slow rise back up
 http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_1m.html

currently at a X1.3
this is seen happening a lot of the time when there is a CME produced with the associated solar flare

Here we see this X flare on sdo EVE













 NOAA Alerts:
SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 07 0002 UTC
Maximum Time: 2012 Mar 07 0024 UTC
End Time: 2012 Mar 07 0040 UTC
X-ray Class: X5.4
Location: N17E29
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong
Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
Radio - Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.

WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Valid From: 2012 Mar 07 0030 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Mar 08 0000 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

ALERT: X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2012 Mar 07 0008 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/drap/index.html.

Chances for Strong Flares Increase - March 5, 2012

   Updated 19:31 UTC March 5, 2012 :

Sunspot region 1429 has just has two M flares only minutes apart. A M2.1 flare at 19:16 UTC and a M1.8 flare at 19:30 UTC.

Solar activity has picked up quite a bit since March started.
The X-rays from sunspot region 1429 have been very active today.
Flares produced today, March 5th from region 1429 :
 X1.1 C2.3, C5.8, C1.2, C5.4, C7.8, C9.8, C6.8, M2.1 and a M1.8

The background X-ray flux has not dropping below the C1 range since we had the X1.1 flare today at 04:29 UTC


- Today we have chances for M & X flares from 1429 and chances for M flares from 1428

  NOAA has this to say-
Big sunspot 1429 poses a threat for X-class solar flares
with today:
-a 60% chance for M flares
-a 15% chance for X flares
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/forecast.html

based on +/- componants within the sunspots
1429 chance for flares right now
-54% chance for M
-50% chance for X
http://spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk/monitor.html

We are also seeing a slight rise in Flare chances for southern regions 1428 in the southeastern area, and an unnamed region in the southwestern area

We will be staying on top of today's activity 
Keep checking back for updated information!

From solen:
Minor update added at 17:30 UTC: Region 11429 appears to be preparing for another major flare. The magnetic delta structure shows no signs of weakening, on the contrary, umbrae near the inversion line are bigger and more numerous.
Region 11428 is developing as well and could produce a minor M class flare:
http://www.solen.info/solar/

If regions 1429 and 1428 flare at the same time, this is increase the Xray flare level

A closer look at sunspot region 1429

A solar wind stream flowing from CH505 (minor coronal hole) could reach Earth on March 5-6. A solar wind stream flowing from CH506 (coronal hole) could reach Earth on March 8-9

  SEP flux at energies above 10 MeV started to rise since around 00:00 UT today (probably resulting from the CME associated with yesterday's M2.0 flare). Crossing the threshold of an SEP event is probable in the coming hours. Protons from both CMEs are delayed due to the eastern position of the CME source region. http://www.sidc.oma.be/index.php

NOAA Space Wather Alert :

Issue Time: 2012 Mar 05 1517 UTC

WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Valid From: 2012 Mar 05 2100 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Mar 06 2100 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies