Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Solar Activity Update for March 7, 2012


   A S3-Strong Solar Radiation Storm is in Progress
View report for this event here:

Issue Time: 2012 Mar 07 1417 UTC
ALERT: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfuBegin Time: 2012 Mar 07 1410 UTC
NOAA Scale: S3 - Strong
Potential Impacts: Radiation - Passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights may experience increasing radiation exposures. Astronauts on EVA (extra-vehicular activity) are exposed to elevated radiation levels.
Spacecraft - Single-event upsets to satellite operations, noise in imaging systems, and slight reduction of efficiency in solar panels are likely.
Radio - Degraded or episodically blacked-out polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation.


Update 17:40 UTC March 9, 2012:
This Solar Proton Event continues into today

Issue Time: 2012 Mar 09 1740 UTC
EXTENDED WARNING: Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected
Extension to Serial Number: 57
Valid From: 2012 Mar 07 0300 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2012 Mar 10 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence




   Starting at around 04:29 UTC today, We had a CME arrival. This CME was caused by a filament that became unstable on March 4th and was ejected from the solar surface. 
View report for this event here:

A Kp6 (moderate G2) geomagnetic storm was reached today around 08:52 UTC. This G3 storm has now subsided to the current conditions of of a G1 storm.
There was also another CME that occurred on March 4th that could have combined with the filament and arrived at the same time. We will monitor solar conditions today and report on any changes that are seen.

Issue Time: 2012 Mar 07 1454 UTC
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2012 Mar 07 1448 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1200-1500 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state


   We also have a G3-Strong Geomagnetic Storm watch in effect For March 8th
Aurora Watch for March 8, 2012 is also in effect. Auroras may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.
This watch is in effect due to CME's on March 7, 2012 that were produced in association with a X5.4 solar flare occurring at 00:24 UTC & a X1.3 solar flare occurring at 01:14 UTC.
The estimated arrival time of this CME is at between 05:00 and 11:00 UTC March 8th
View report for this event here:

Issue Time: 2012 Mar 07 1742 UTC
WATCH: Geomagnetic A-index of 50 or greater predicted
NOAA Scale: Periods reaching the G3 (Strong) Level Likely
Valid for UTC Day: 2012 Mar 08
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.


   There remains a high chance for strong solar flares from sunspot region 1429 over the remainder of this week.
Image shown here of a close up of region 1429 taken today by SDO.
Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Additional M-class events from Region 1429 are likely.
There is also a chance for a major flare and/or proton producing event from Region 1429 during the next three days (07-09 March).
Chances for solar flare events for March 7-9:
-80% chance for M class solar flares
-30% chance for X class solar flares


List of M and X  class solar flares for March 2012:
(Here you can find our ongoing detailed list of all M & X solar flares)
http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/p/solar-flare-updates.html

March 2012:
X1.3 Flare on 3/7/2012 @ 01:14 UTC - Sunspot 1429
- CME produced - ETA coming soon
X5.4 Flare on 3/7/2012 @ 00:24 UTC - Sunspot 1429
- CME produced - ETA coming soon
- Second largest Solar Flare of Solar Cycle 24M1.0 Flare on 3/6/2012 @ 22:53 UTC - Sunspot 1429
M1.3 Flare on 3/6/2012 @ 21:11 UTC - Sunspot 1429
M2.1 Flare on 3/6/2012 @ 12:41 UTC - Sunspot 1429
M1.0 Flare on 3/6/2012 @ 07:55 UTC - Sunspot 1429
M1.0 Flare on 3/6/2012 @ 04:05 UTC - Sunspot 1429
M1.2 Flare on 3/6/2012 @ 01:44 UTC - Sunspot 1429
M1.3 Flare on 3/6/2012 @ 00:28 UTC - Sunspot 1429
M1.3 Flare on 3/5/2012 @ 22:34 UTC - Sunspot 1429
M1.8 Flare on 3/5/2012 @ 19:30 UTC - Sunspot 1429
M2.1 Flare on 3/5/2012 @ 19:15 UTC - Sunspot 1429
X1.1 Flare on 3/5/2012 @ 04:09 UTC - Sunspot 1429
- LDE lasting 7hrs
- CME produced ETA: unknown at this time
M2.0 Flare on 3/4/2012 @ 10:45 UTC - Sunspot 1429
- LDE lasting 7hrs
- CME produced ETA: possible glancing blow March 7th
M3.3 Flare on 3/2/2012 @ 17:46 UTC - Sunspot 1429

S3 Solar Radiation Storm

S3-Strong
Biological: radiation hazard avoidance recommended for astronauts on EVA; passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft at high latitudes may be exposed to radiation risk.***
Satellite operations: single-event upsets, noise in imaging systems, and slight reduction of efficiency in solar panel are likely.
Other systems: degraded HF radio propagation through the polar regions and navigation position errors likely.
Solar Radiation Storm Levels

G3 Geomagnetic Storm

G 3-Strong
Power systems: voltage corrections may be required, false alarms triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft operations: surface charging may occur on satellite components, drag may increase on low-Earth-orbit satellites, and corrections may be needed for orientation problems.
Other systems: intermittent satellite navigation and low-frequency radio navigation problems may occur, HF radio may be intermittent, and aurora has been seen as low as Illinois and Oregon (typically 50° geomagnetic lat.)**.
Geomagnetic Storm Levels

NOAA Space Weather Alert Scales
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/

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