Monday, March 5, 2012

Chances for Strong Flares Increase - March 5, 2012

   Updated 19:31 UTC March 5, 2012 :

Sunspot region 1429 has just has two M flares only minutes apart. A M2.1 flare at 19:16 UTC and a M1.8 flare at 19:30 UTC.

Solar activity has picked up quite a bit since March started.
The X-rays from sunspot region 1429 have been very active today.
Flares produced today, March 5th from region 1429 :
 X1.1 C2.3, C5.8, C1.2, C5.4, C7.8, C9.8, C6.8, M2.1 and a M1.8

The background X-ray flux has not dropping below the C1 range since we had the X1.1 flare today at 04:29 UTC

- Today we have chances for M & X flares from 1429 and chances for M flares from 1428

  NOAA has this to say-
Big sunspot 1429 poses a threat for X-class solar flares
with today:
-a 60% chance for M flares
-a 15% chance for X flares

based on +/- componants within the sunspots
1429 chance for flares right now
-54% chance for M
-50% chance for X

We are also seeing a slight rise in Flare chances for southern regions 1428 in the southeastern area, and an unnamed region in the southwestern area

We will be staying on top of today's activity 
Keep checking back for updated information!

From solen:
Minor update added at 17:30 UTC: Region 11429 appears to be preparing for another major flare. The magnetic delta structure shows no signs of weakening, on the contrary, umbrae near the inversion line are bigger and more numerous.
Region 11428 is developing as well and could produce a minor M class flare:

If regions 1429 and 1428 flare at the same time, this is increase the Xray flare level

A closer look at sunspot region 1429

A solar wind stream flowing from CH505 (minor coronal hole) could reach Earth on March 5-6. A solar wind stream flowing from CH506 (coronal hole) could reach Earth on March 8-9
  SEP flux at energies above 10 MeV started to rise since around 00:00 UT today (probably resulting from the CME associated with yesterday's M2.0 flare). Crossing the threshold of an SEP event is probable in the coming hours. Protons from both CMEs are delayed due to the eastern position of the CME source region.
NOAA Space Wather Alert :
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 05 1517 UTC
WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Valid From: 2012 Mar 05 2100 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Mar 06 2100 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies


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