Saturday, March 10, 2012

M8.4 LDE Solar Flare at Sunspot Region 1429 - March 10, 2012


   A strong M8.4 LDE solar flare has occurred at sunspot region 1429. The M8.4 flare peaked at 17:27 UTC and remained at that range until 17:44 UTC when we started to see a very slow drop. There was a bright CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) produced in association with this M8.4 flare.
This CME is Earth directed. According to a forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the cloud will hit our planet's magnetosphere on March 12th at 1803 UT (+/- 7 hr)


The latest updates as well as alerts and warnings will be posted directly below so be sure to check back often.

   This M8.4 LDE flare occurred just under 2 hours after we saw a C8.0 flare peaking at 15:52 UTC from sunspot region 1430. There was also a CME seen produced in association with this C8.0 flare.This makes 2 CME's that were ejected today in Earths direction. More on this to come. Check back soon



  
   The Earth directed bright CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) that was associated with today's M8.4 flare as seen today on STEREO A



Update 22:11 UTC March 10, 2012:
From SWPC:
Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was high.  Region 1430 (N21W42) produced
a C8 flare at 10/1552Z and Region 1429 (N18W26) produced a long
duration M8 flare at 10/1744Z with an associated Tenflare (459 sfu)
and a Type IV radio sweep.  Both flares had associated CMEs.  The
first CME appeared in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 10/1624Z with
the majority of the ejecta off the NW limb.  The second CME,
associated with the M8 flare, first appeared in C2 imagery at
10/1800Z.  Further analysis will be done as imagery becomes
available, however initial analysis indicated the event produced a
full-halo CME with an estimated plane-of-sky speed between 1200 -
1400 km/s.  Region 1429 remained a large Ekc spot class with a
Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic class.  A new region appeared on the ENE
limb near Region 1432 (N16E52).  Close proximity to the limb made a
detailed analysis of this new region difficult.

Update 22:11 UTC March 10, 2012:
From Spaceweather
WEEKEND SOLAR FLARE: Sunspot AR1429 is still erupting this weekend. On Saturday, March 10th, it produced a powerful M8-class flare that almost crossed the threshold into X-territory. In New Mexico, amateur radio astronomer Thomas Ashcraft recorded a series of shortwave bursts emanating from the blast site: audio. Also, the explosion propelled yet another CME toward Earth: forecast track. The cloud is expected to hit our planet's magnetosphere on March 12th around 1800 UT. A CME from an earlier explosion will arrive much sooner, however. Continue reading.....
INCOMING CME: A CME from sunspot AR1429 is nearing Earth. According to analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the cloud will arrive on March 11th at 0649 UT (+/- 7 hr). NOAA forecasters say the odds of a strong geomagnetic storm at that time is 50%

Update 20:02 UTC March 10, 2012:
*The M8.4 flare that started at 17:22 UTC today has now fallen to the C9 range @ 20:02 UTC, 2hrs 40min after it began.


NOAA Space Weather Alerts From This Event:

*Issue Time: 2012 Mar 10 2200 UTC
WATCH: Geomagnetic A-index of 30 or greater predicted
NOAA Scale: Periods reaching the G2 (Moderate) Level Likely
Valid for UTC Day: 2012 Mar 12
Potential Impacts:
Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washinton state.

*SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 10 1722 UTC
Maximum Time: 2012 Mar 10 1802 UTC
End Time: 2012 Mar 10 1822 UTC
Duration: 60 minutes
Peak Flux: 459 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 146 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

*SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 10 1715 UTC
Maximum Time: 2012 Mar 10 1744 UTC
End Time: 2012 Mar 10 1830 UTC
X-ray Class: M8.4
Location: N18W23
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
Comment: No optical reports from ground stations. Location verified through GOES-15 SXI imagery
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.

*ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 10 1729 UTC
Comment: Associated with M8 event from Rgn 1429 (N18W23)
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

Proton Event:
*The proton event that has been ongoing for the last few days has now been extended by NOAA and is now expected to rise in the coming hours due to today's M8.4 solar flare.

*Issue Time: 2012 Mar 10 2025 UTC
EXTENDED WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Extension to Serial Number: 347
Valid From: 2012 Mar 07 0030 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2012 Mar 12 0100 UTC
Warning Condition: persistence
Predicted NOAA Scale: S2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

*Issue Time: 2012 Mar 10 2025 UTC
EXTENDED WARNING: Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected
Extension to Serial Number: 59
Valid From: 2012 Mar 07 0300 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2012 Mar 11 1300 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Comment: Recent M8 x-ray event from proton producing Region 1429 is expected to increase proton flux levels to above alert threshold levels.
Potential Impacts: An enhancement in the energetic portion of the solar radiation spectrum may indicate increased biological risk to astronauts or passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights. Additionally, energetic particles may represent an increased risk to all satellite systems susceptible to single event effects. This information should be used in conjunction with the current Solar Radiation Storm conditions when assessing overall impact

1 comment:

  1. Good morning peeps.....LooK'n here....place looks good..keep up the good work...going to be interesting t watch these next two cme's

    ReplyDelete

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