Thursday, March 8, 2012

March 7th CME arrives after X 5.4 Solar Flare


   On March 7, 2012 Sunspot Region 1429 unleashed a X5.4 Solar Flare, Long Duration Event (LDE).  This X5.4 Solar Flare was associated with a type II and a type IV radio burst as well as a full halo, Coronal Mass Ejection (CME).  According to NASA the CME had an estimated plane of sky speed of 2200 km/s. The Interplanetary Shock of this CME arrived at the ACE spacecraft at 10:45 UTC signaling its immediate approach to Earth. 
We will be monitoring  the situation today as NOAA has forcast strong to severe geomagnetic storming while this CME interacts with Earth's magnetosphere.

The latest updates as well as alerts and warnings will be posted directly below so be sure to check back often.


                           
Updated @ 18:47 UT  - March 9, 2012
*They just took ACE out of safe mode.
Solar wind data is now coming in.

Solar winds speeds have been recorded at SOHO as high as 988.80 km/s

 *The SEP event continues into March 9, 2012. We are now into the 2nd full day of protons remaining above the event level. A S2 Solar Radiation Storm is in effect at this time
Read full report here

Solar Radiation Storm Levels

*We have posted a full report on todays M6.3 solar flare + Earth directed CME
View full report on this event here-

*There is a 40% chance today for further X-class solar flares from sunspot region 1429

*An aurora watch for high and mid latitudes is in effect for today, March 9, 2012


Updated @ 08:35 UT  - March 9, 2012
*As the Geomagnetic Storm continues to intensify a  Geomagnetic K index of seven has been reached and a G3 storm (NOAA Scale: G3 or greater - Strong to Extreme) is now in progress. NOAA has issued the following  Alert and Warning.

Issue Time: 2012 Mar 09 0724 UTC
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 7
Threshold Reached: 2012 Mar 09 0724 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0600-0900 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G3 - Strong
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.



Issue Time: 2012 Mar 09 0658 UTC
WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 7 or greater expected
Valid From: 2012 Mar 09 0700 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Mar 09 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G3 or greater - Strong to Extreme
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

Geomagnetic Storm Levels
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/#GeomagneticStorms


                                                               Updated@ 7:15 UT - March 9, 2012
There is an Earthbound CME that was ejected in association with the M6.3 S/F that took place at 03:22 UT on March 09, 2012.  View full report on this event here-
http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/03/m63-flare-earth-directed-cme-march-9.html
Additionally, a Geomagnetic K index of six has been reached and a G2 storm is now in progress.  NOAA has issued the following Alert.

Issue Time: 2012 Mar 09 0528 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2012 Mar 09 0526 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washinton state.


                                                              Updated @ 03:53 UT - March 9, 2012
Sunspot Region 1429 has produced a  M6.3 S/F at 03:22 UT. We will follow up with further updates if there is an associated CME with this flare.
Geomagnetic storming continues into the 9th of March UT.  We are now seeing a rapid intensification of this Geomagnetic Storm and NOAA has issued the following warning.

Issue Time: 2012 Mar 09 0319 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2012 Mar 09 0330 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Mar 09 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washinton state.


Updated @ 20:48 UT - March 8, 2012
With geomagnetic storming expected over the following hours, an aurora watch for March 8, 2012 is in effect.
Want to know if you will see the auroras where you live? You can view the aurora ovation and area of coverage here:
We have also added the real time image of the aurora ovation to the left hand column of our site.
Bookmark My Solar Alerts blog and come back at anytime to see if you will be able to view auroras in your area. 


 Updated @ 18:27 UT - March 8, 2012
The ACE sensor for solar wind speed is not functioning at this time.  ACE is currently in safety mode due to an extremely high level of Solar Energetic Particles (SEP) in the ACE satellite environment. We are now looking to SOHO for solar wind speeds.

Current Conditions at
SOHO CELIAS/MTOF Proton Monitor:

@ 18:15 UTC March 8, 2012...
-Solar Wind Speed: 689.90 km/s.
-Density: 6.97

Updated @ 12:39 UT - March 8, 2012
We have quickly reached a Kp index of 5 which currently puts us at a Geomagnetic Storm Level 1 status.

Issue Time: 2012 Mar 08 1138 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2012 Mar 08 1130 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0900-1200 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Updated @ 11:40 UT - March 8, 2012
The IP shock has now reached Earth and readings are being taken at Earth based magnetometers.
We have an initial deviation at the Boulder CO magnetometer of 58nT.

Space Weather Message Code: SUMSUD
Serial Number: 147
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 08 1109 UTC
SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2012 Mar 08 1105 UTC
Deviation: 58 nT
Station: Boulder

Initial Post
Although the ACE spacecraft is currently operating in safety mode, its magnetometer has detected the passage of the interplanetary shock wave that heralds the arrival of the much anticipated CME that was sent hurtling towards Earth with an X5.4 Solar Flare on March 7th, 2012.

Space Weather Message Code: WARSUD
Serial Number: 107
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 08 1052 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2012 Mar 08 1100 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Mar 08 1145 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2012 Mar 08 1045 UTC



http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/warnings_timeline.html

Keep Checking back for updates as we monitor this developing situation.

2 comments:

  1. SO, what are the chances of anything happening to Earth, as far as losing our power grids and such? How bad will this be?

    ReplyDelete
  2. holy shizzlestomp Batman!

    following the realtime earthquake feed this time around... both extreme weather and quakes take a jump during one of these storms: no question.

    Did you guyz know that over 8000 amps of current flow have been recorded at tornado touchdown points? Just another way She grounds(absorbs) all that energy.

    very awesome guyz: and i like the new realtime aurora thumb.

    finally i thought this ( http://sol.spacenvironment.net/~spacewx/data/Temperature@pressure_0_temps.jpg ) was a nice piece to add. Its a current global surface temp map.

    eyes wide open.

    -learner

    ReplyDelete

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