Strong M7.9 Flare from Region 1429 - March 13, 2012

   A strong LDE Solar Flare of M7.9 peaking at 17:41 UTC has occurred around Sunspot Region 1429. There has been a slow drop in the Xray flux, indicating that there was a CME produced in association with this flare.
Update: there was a CME produced in association with this flare, see below for details.

Check back often for further updates and alerts on this event.

All updates will be added to the bottom of this report.

   Region 1429 on 60^o - 70^o longitude right now. With this CME that was produced today from 1429, this degree of longitude could cause a connection between the CME and Earth. Read all about this 60^o west longitude connection here
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2005/10jun_newstorm/

   Here was can see there was a sharp rise in the proton flux immediately following the M7.9 Flare. This is another indication of a CME produced in association with this flare event

     The UMA proton flux forecaster model shown here to the left indicates that Earth is currently magnetically connected to Sunspot Region 1429, and that a SEP event is in progress.  This system is able to predict the onset and intensity of the first hours of well connected Solar Proton (SEP) events.  This forecaster identifies if there is a magnetic connection between the associated flare and the Earth, by correlating X-ray and differential proton data at 1 AU.

The 1st signs of a CME as seen on SOHO LASCO C2

Update 21:17 UTC March 13, 2012:

We just got a new CME arrival calculation in from NASA.

Event Issue Date: 2012-03-13 20:18:02.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-03-15 06:20:06.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 11 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 5.1 Re


Thu, 15 Mar 2012 06:20:06 UTC
Thu, 15 Mar 2012 18:20:06 UTC

Update 18:40 UTC March 13, 2012:

Issue Time: 2012 Mar 13 1836 UTC
SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 13 1712 UTC
Maximum Time: 2012 Mar 13 1741 UTC
End Time: 2012 Mar 13 1825 UTC
X-ray Class: M7.9
Location: N18W56
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes


Issue Time: 2012 Mar 13 1818 UTC
WARNING: Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected
Valid From: 2012 Mar 13 1817 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Mar 14 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Potential Impacts: An enhancement in the energetic portion of the solar radiation spectrum may indicate increased biological risk to astronauts or passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights. Additionally, energetic particles may represent an increased risk to all satellite systems susceptible to single event effects. This information should be used in conjunction with the current Solar Radiation Storm conditions when assessing overall impact.

Update 18:16 UTC March 13, 2012:

The Xray flux is now in a slow drop from the peak of M7.9. Right now it is at 18:15 UTC it was at M4.9

Update 18:16 UTC March 13, 2012:

Issue Time: 2012 Mar 13 1746 UTC
ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 13 1715 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1366 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

Issue Time: 2012 Mar 13 1727 UTC
ALERT: X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2012 Mar 13 1726 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/drap/index.html.

Additional Update:

Large Southern Coronal Hole

Many people are asking "what is that large dark triangle shape on the sun? That would be a large southern Coronal Hole. On around March 10th a large southern Coronal Hole rotated into a Earth facing position. The solar wind stream  from this coronal hole should reach Earth on March 16-17 2012

What is a Coronal Hole?
http://helios.gsfc.nasa.gov/chole.html