Tuesday, March 6, 2012

X5.4 Major Solar Flare from Region 1429 - March 7, 2012


   Updated 03:28 UTC March 7 2012 :

A major X5.4 solar flare has just occured at 00:24 UTC March 7, 2012 followed by a  X1.3 solar flare occurring at 01:14 UTC. 
The X5.4 & X1.3 flares came from sunspot region 1429. This event produced a R3 radio blackout.
Sunspot region 1429 is Earth directed and here was a large dence CME produced with this X class event.
The estimated arrival time of this CME is at between 05:00 and 11:00 UTC March 8th

Update March 9 2012 @ 15:49 UTC:
The CME associated with this event has arrived.
View full report here


Update on the solar flares:
just issued from NOAA

2012-03-07 01:03   Strong Solar Eruption; Earth-Directed CME Likely
An R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout is now in progress, beginning about 7:00 p.m. EST today. The site of the eruption, previously active Region 1429, is now near center disk, so there's  high-potential of an earth-directed CME. In addition, expect the imminent beginning of a Solar Radiation Storm. Analysis now occurring on both fronts
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/

the Xray flux was slowly dropping after the X5.4 solar flare, it dropped to around the X1.0 level, and is right now on a slow rise back up
 http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_1m.html

currently at a X1.3
this is seen happening a lot of the time when there is a CME produced with the associated solar flare


Here we see this X flare on sdo EVE













 NOAA Alerts:
SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 07 0002 UTC
Maximum Time: 2012 Mar 07 0024 UTC
End Time: 2012 Mar 07 0040 UTC
X-ray Class: X5.4
Location: N17E29
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong
Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
Radio - Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.

WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Valid From: 2012 Mar 07 0030 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Mar 08 0000 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

ALERT: X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2012 Mar 07 0008 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/drap/index.html.

10 comments:

  1. Wonder how high this will go!

    ReplyDelete
  2. Radiation storms and radio blackouts?

    ReplyDelete
  3. Many thanks for expediting this information!

    ReplyDelete
  4. What does this mean for us on Earth? Is this dangerous because last week this same sun spot put out a CME that was not earth directed and a scientist stated that once it becomes earth directed and if there was an eruption it could be very bad for us... any info?

    ReplyDelete
  5. Thanks everyone for popping in here and posting these questions. We know everyone wants to know whats going on with this event as well as imformation about the CME. Give us just a few and we will answer all questions the best we can.
    We are right now pouring over data and images so we can see the impact potential this will have on Earth

    ReplyDelete
  6. yeeeeee haaawwwww!



    'learner

    ReplyDelete
  7. oh.

    and Mercury was at 90deg on the 3rd(ish).

    just sayin'

    ReplyDelete
  8. Anything new? Curious if it's headed to earth and where it will hit. Any idea on how destructive it could be?

    ReplyDelete
  9. Thanks, NINzrez - I'm reading historic info on past events... awaiting professional comments. Randall

    ReplyDelete

  10. Spot on with this write-up, I really think this amazing site needs a great deal more attention. I’ll probably be returning to read through more, thanks for the advice!

    ReplyDelete

Thank you for choosing "My Solar Alerts" for your Solar event news.
Check back soon for more updates! :)