My Solar Alerts: New CME from northwest filament eruption

Tuesday, April 17, 2012

New CME from northwest filament eruption

We have a new CME as seen on Stereo Images

CME apears to be earth directed

More investigation on this is needed
apears to be earth directed

Latest SDO AIA 304 shows us the source:

Source of this CME is a filament eruption in the northwest

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Expected Events

MSA Special Notice
- Feb 14, 2013
Click Here for Notice

CME Arrival
- November 12, 2013
Click Here for Event

Solar Activity:

*Event % probabilities:
Nov 12 - Nov 14
60% Chance for M Flares
30% Chance for X Flares
SWPC 3-Day Forecast

*24 hr Summary:.
Solar activity was high. Region 1890 (S11W22, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) once again produced an X1/2b flare (NOAA scale R3-strong) at 10/0514 UTC, which was the largest event of the period. The flare was also accompanied by a type-II radio sweep, estimated at 1012 km/s, a type-IV radio sweep, as well as a Tenflare of 360 sfu. Coronal dimming and post-eruption arcade were also visible with the flare, indicating a likely coronal mass ejection (CME). Analysis will be conducted to determine geoeffectiveness of the CME as soon as data is available in STEREO and Lasco C2/C3 imagery. Region 1890 remains the largest and most magnetically complex region on the disk and maintained its delta magnetic configuration. The other regions on the disk were either stable or decaying. New Region 1895 (S16E71, Hsx/alpha) was numbered over night as it rotated onto the east limb.

*Geomagnetic Forecast:
Update coming soon with new info on the CME expected late on Nov. 12th

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/forecast_discussion.txt

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Tuesday, April 17, 2012

New CME from northwest filament eruption

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