X1.1 Solar Flare LDE - March 5, 2012

   Update 14:25 UTC March 5, 2012 :

A X1.1 long duration solar flare has occurred around sunspot region 1429 at 04:09 UTC  March 5, 2012. This LDE event is still in progress at this time.

A R3 radio blackout has occurred and there was a large CME associated with this X1.1 flare.

A portion of the CME is Earth directed.

CME arrival time: Wed. March 7, 2012 .

There is a chance of a SEP (Solar Energetic Particle), or Proton event in the coming hours.

.

Read full report for all details and images

Check back often for current updates

 Most Recent NOAA Space Weather Alert :
ALERT: X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2012 Mar 05 0345 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/drap/index.html

What is a R3 radio blackout?
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/#RadioBlackouts

Updated CME Information :

STRONG SOLAR ACTIVITY: When the CME from today's X-flare arrives, a geomagnetic storm might already be in progress. An earlier CME is en route and nearing our planet. According to analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the cloud, which was produced by an M2-class eruption from sunspot AR1429 on March 4th, could deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field on March 6th at 04:30 UT (+/- 7 hr).

 http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=05&month=03&year=2012

From NOAA:

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate.  A long duration M2/1N
flare was observed at 04/1052Z from Region 1429 (N18E55).
Associated with the event was a 750 sfu Tenflare, Type IV Radio
Sweep, and a CME first visible in STEREO B COR 2 Imagery at 04/1210Z
(estimated speed of 840 km/s).  This region is classified as a Dkc
spot group with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration.  Further
analysis of the CME will be necessary as imagery becomes available,
however there appears to be a partial Earth-directed component.  A
glancing blow is possible from this event.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/forecast.html

  SEP flux at energies above 10 MeV started to rise since around 00:00 UT today (probably resulting from the CME associated with yesterday's M2.0 flare). Crossing the threshold of an SEP event is probable in the coming hours. Protons from both CMEs are delayed due to the eastern position of the CME source region. http://www.sidc.oma.be/index.php

M2.0 LDE Flare from Sunspot 1429

   Updated 07:49 UTC March 5th, 2012 :

Today we had a long duration M2.0 Solar flare that peaked at 10:45 UTC. The source was new large active sunspot region 1429, located at the north east limb. This LDE flare lasted for around 7 hrs. Peaking at 10:45 UTC and finaly dropping to the C1 flare level at around 17:46 UTC.
This event was also associated with a 46min long Radio burst inbounded (Tenflare).

There was a CME produced with this event. Because this CME was ejected on the Eastern limb, it is likely that most of the CME is directed away from earth. However, there was a partial Earth directed portion of this wide CME.
There was also a CME was caused by a filament in the northern region that became unstable on  and was ejected from the solar surface. 

CME Update March 5, 2012:
According to analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the CME from todays event could deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field on March 6th at 04:30 UT

Event Issue Date: 2012-03-04 15:06:24.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-03-06 04:29:07.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 13 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 5.6 Re
Tue, 06 Mar 2012 04:29:07 GMT

Spaceweather.com reports on March 5th 2012
(main report is on the X1.1 solar flare that occured on Match 5th)
When the CME from today's X-flare arrives, a geomagnetic storm might already be in progress. An earlier CME is en route and nearing our planet. According to analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the cloud, which was produced by an M2-class eruption from sunspot AR1429 on March 4th, could deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field on March 6th at 04:30 UT (+/- 7 hr).
http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=05&month=03&year=2012

More updates to come on todays M2.0 solar flare + CME

Issued from the NOAA Space Weather PRediction Center:
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate.  A long duration M2/1N
flare was observed at 04/1052Z from Region 1429 (N18E55).
Associated with the event was a 750 sfu Tenflare, Type IV Radio
Sweep, and a CME first visible in STEREO B COR 2 Imagery at 04/1210Z
(estimated speed of 840 km/s).  This region is classified as a Dkc
spot group with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration.  Further
analysis of the CME will be necessary as imagery becomes available,
however there appears to be a partial Earth-directed component.  A
glancing blow is possible from this event.

What is a Tenflare?

 Tenflare: A tenflare is associated with optical and x-ray flares. Solar flares emit radiation over a very wide range of frequencies. One of the more significant frequencies observed is the 10.7 cm wavelength band (2695 MHz). When a solar flare erupts, "noise" from the flare is received over this very wide range of frequencies.

When the noise received on the 10.7 cm wavelength band surpasses 100% of the background noise level during a solar flare, a Tenflare is said to be in progress. The more intense solar flares are associated with tenflares. Almost all major flares are associated with tenflares
http://www.sci.fi/~fmbb/astro/glossar1.htm

From Spaceweather.com
BIG SUNSPOT: A sunspot almost four times as wide as Earth itself is rotating onto the solar disk.
Earth-effects could become stronger as the sunspot turns toward our planet in the days ahead. NOAA forecasters estimate a 55% chance of additional M-class flares and a 5% chance of an X-flare during the next 24 hours
http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=04&month=03&year=2012

Keep checking back in for updated information :)

   NOAA Space Weather Alert :

Issue Time: 2012 Mar 04 1230 UTC

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 04 1126 UTC
Maximum Time: 2012 Mar 04 1135 UTC
End Time: 2012 Mar 04 1212 UTC
Duration: 46 minutes
Peak Flux: 750 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

Issue Time: 2012 Mar 04 1302 UTC

ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 04 1040 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 04 1601 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 1864
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 02 1425 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 2070 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

M3.3 Solar Flare from New Sunspot Region

  We have a M3.3 Solar Flare peaking at 17: 46 UTC Friday, March 2nd.

This moderate solar flare originated from the new sunspot region that's rotating over the northeast limb.
This sunspot region was later numbered 1429

We will keep you updated on any new information on this event.

Solar Browsing - The Fast Easy Way

With our original blog home page containing many live monitors,  we are aware this may slow down loading time. For those of you that may not have a fast internet connection or who are working with older PC's, we have a solution to help you out some.

For faster loading time and quicker, easier solar browsing
Try the My Solar Alerts Dynamic View
http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/view/magazine

We have 7 different Views to chose from
Chose your view in the drop down menu on the top left

If you chose to switch back to the original view, we have added the original view link to the top of the "Solar Monitors" page
http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/p/solar-monitors.html

The 'Solar Monitors' tab can be found at the top of  any view you chose

Never miss another Solar event!
You can now add My Solar Alerts widget to your
Google Homepage
http://www.google.com/ig/add?feedurl=http://feeds.feedburner.com/MySolarAlerts

Feb 24th CME Arriving Now. G2 Storm Expected

   Update 17:50 UTC Feb 27 2012 : 

The first signs of the CME from Feb 24th are now being seen.
ACE showed an increase in solar wind and density starting at 20:58 UTC
A G2 Geomagnetic Storm is expected.

Conditions from yesterday's CME impact continue into today, Feb 27, 2012.
Solar wind speed and density are slowly rising, and the Bz has now dipped into the negative.

ACE Data:
Solar wind is now at: 488.7 km/sec
Density is now at: 7.7 protons/cm
Max density reached: 36.3
@ 01:27 UTC Feb 27th

High latitudes be on the watch for auroras :)

We will be updating this report as conditions with this CME arrival change. Be sure to check back often.

Here we have the most recent images of the nict magnetosphere simulation

New Coronal Hole Created By Solar Tsunami



Image Credit: Solen http://www.solen.info/solar/

    Early today we reported there was a filament eruption and solar tsunami in the Northeastern region of the solar disk.
http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/02/cme-from-filament-channel-eruption.html

What we can see now is a new large Coronal Hole that was created by this solar tsunami. This new Coronal Hole was created  just to the West of where today's filament ejection/solar tsunami was and to the East of sunspot region 1421. As we can see on the images, this new Coronal Hole is quite large.

   Here, we can see what the solar disk looked like before the filament ejection and solar tsunami. Comparing this image to the one above (taken post solar tsunami) we can see where the new large coronal hole was created.
Winds from this new Coronal Hole should reach earth around Feb 26-28

CME From Filament Channel Eruption

   A CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) can be seen on STEREO A and B this evening. The source is a Filament Channel in the Northeast region of the solar disk. This filament became unstable earlier today and finally ejected this evening at around 23:24 UTC Feb 23, 2012.
Most of the ejected mater looks to be directed to the Northwest and not Earth directed. More data is needed to decide for sure. Please check back for updates

Update 18:57 UTC Feb 24, 2012 :
 In the most recent SDO images, it appears that the ejection of this filament, has caused a destabilization
around the filament's southern base.
This destabilization on the solar surface caused a solar tsunami and a CME.This event is ongoing.

More updates on the way!

What is on SDO? SDO Eclipse Feb 21, 2012

   What do we see on the SDO images today? That would be a Lunar eclipse of the SDO (Solar Dynamics Observatory) satellite that was expected to happen today, Feb 21, 2012

As reported by the SDO team:
On Tuesday, February 21, 2012 we will again watch a lunar transit from SDO. Here is a video showing the path of the Moon as seen by the SDO instruments
http://sdoisgo.blogspot.com/2012/02/lunar-transit-on-february-21-2012.html
(video at link)

New Fast Growing Sunspot

   Today, a new fast growing Earth directed sunspot emerged in the Northern region of the solar disk . This new sunspot region will put an end to the 6 day streak of no significant solar flares and the flatlined Xray flux. We should see this new region named sometime today. Any events from this region over the next few days will be Earth directed.

   Here we can see this sunspot region as it appears in the very early hours of today. When we compare this image to the most recent image, shown above, we can see the extreme fast growth of this new sunspot region

Update 17:45 UTC - Feb 20, 2012 :

This new sunspot region was named region 1422 and now holds a chance for M and X class events
We are keeping a close watch on the solar activity & will report immediately with any significant changes.
Keep checking back :)

Sudden G1 Geomagnetic Storm

   A unexpected G1 geomagnetic storm is underway. A coronal hole wind stream coming in from a coronal hole located in the southern region of the solar disk reached Earth At 00:42 UTC Feb 19, 2012. At that time, the CH winds connected with Earths magnetic field causing the onset of a G1 geomagnetic storm with the Kp levels remaining at the Kp4-Kp5 level. Watch for auroras in the northern US states






NOAA Alert:

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 747
Issue Time: 2012 Feb 19 0424 UTC
WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2012 Feb 19 0425 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Feb 19 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees
Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier
of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Return of Sunspot Regions 1402 & 1401

   Today, we see an increase in solar Xray activity with a a string of C class flares. C1.4, C7.9, C1.5, C2.7, C7.7, C5.3 and a C2.7. This is due to us seeing the return of old sunspot regions 1402 and 1401 as they appear just over the Eastern limb.
Old sunspot region 1402 has remained a strong sunspot region in it's rotation around the backside of the solar disk.
This region will be making it's official return tomorrow sometime, when it will be renamed by NOAA and given a new number.

Expect solar activity to increase as these regions rotate into a more Earth directed position.




Here is a list of M and X flares we seen from old sunspot region 1402 and 1401 on their last rotation in a Earth facing position

 X1.7 Flare on 1/27/2012 @ 18:33 UTC - Sunspot 1402
- CME produced ETA: 16:00 UTC Jan 30, 2012

M8.7 Flare on 1/23/2012 @ 03:59 UTC - Sunspot 1402
- LDE lasting 8hrs
- CME produced ETA: 22:00 utc Jan 24, 2012

M1.1 Flare on 1/23/2012 @ 03:04 UTC - Sunspot 1402
- LDE lasting 8hrs
- CME produced ETA: 22:00 utc Jan 24, 2012

M2.6 Flare on 1/19/2012 @ 15:30 UTC - Sunspot 1402

M3.2 Flare on 1/19/2012 @ 16:05 UTC - Sunspot 1402
- This was a double flare event
- LDE lasting 13hrs. starting 13:43 Jan 19 - ending aprox. 03:00 UTC Jan 20th
- CME produced ETA: 22:00 utc Jan 21, 2012

M1.7 Flare on 1/18/2012  @ 19:12 UTC - Sunspot 1401

M1.0 Flare on 1/17/2012  @ 04:53 UTC - Sunspot 1401

C6.5 Flare on 1/16/2012  @ 04:44 UTC - Sunspot 1402
- LDE lasting 4 hrs. starting 02:36 - ending 06:46
- CME Produced ETA Jan 20th 2012

M1.4 Flare on 1/14/2012  @ 13:18 UTC - Sunspot 1401

Sunspot Region 1410 LDE Flare In Progress

   There has been a slow steady rise in the Xray flux over the last few hours starting around 20:30 UTC. This is due to an ongoing flare around sunspot region 1410 located on the far western limb of the solar disk.

Update 00:09 UTC Feb 8, 2012 :
This LDE peaked at C7.3 and  is now on a slow drop, currently at C2.3

We will update on the flare situation as conditions change.
Keep checking back

ACE Tracking Difficulties Feb 6, 2012

   UhOh! We have some updated news about the ACE satellite that most of you may find interesting. For about the next week, we will not have reliable data fron the ACE satellite. The following news post was made today by NOAA

2012-02-06 19:01 -  ACE Tracking Difficulties

SWPC’s partners that track the ACE satellite have begun to see problems with tracking ACE.  The orbit of the ACE spacecraft is about to take it directly in line with the Sun, as seen from Earth.  This will happen on February 8th, but ACE is already so close to the Sun that ground stations are having trouble.  The Sun acts as a radio noise source, making the signal from ACE difficult to discern above the solar noise (also known as solar Radio Frequency Interference).  This has resulted in intermittent availability of the ACE solar wind data.  This situation will get worse over the next two days and will then improve over the next several days as the ACE spacecraft moves away from the Sun-Earth line.  Models that depend on the ACE solar wind data will also be affected (e.g. the Wing Kp Geomagnetic model).  These problems are temporary, but are expected to continue for the next 4 or more days.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/

M1.0 Flare from Region 1410

   Sunspot region 1410 has produced a M1.0 solar flare peaking at 20:00 UTC Feb 6, 2012
We will monitor to see if there was a CME produced in association with this M flare.

CME from Jan 27th X Flare Arrives

    Looking at the ACE data, we can see that the CME associated with the Jan 27th X1.7 flare has arrived at arround 15:40 UTC. This CME is expected to only give a glancing blow and not create a geomagnetic storm. We will keep an eye on the ACE data and report if conditions increase or change.

Original X1.7 flare report:
http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/01/x17-flare-january-27-2012.html

NOAA Alert:
Issue Time: 2012 Jan 30 1653 UTC
SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2012 Jan 30 1624 UTC
Deviation: 8 nT
Station: Boulder


2012-01-30 17:15   CME Arrival at Earth from the X1-solar flare
A pulse in the solar wind passed the ACE spacecraft around 1540 UTC (10:40 EST) today. This abrupt increase in speed and magnetic field strength is thought to be from a CME on Friday, January 27. No significant geomagnetic storm activity is expected from this. Another effect of Friday's eruption, a Solar Radiation Storm, continues its leisurely decay and is nearing the end of the event (currently at S1 (Minor) levels).
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/

Solar Activity Update - Jan 28, 2012

  
   Update 20:52 UTC Jan 28, 2012 :

We are currently having a S2 Solar radiation Storm that was brought on by yesterdays X1.7 solar flare that peaked at 18:33 UTC Jan 27, 2012.
http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/01/x17-flare-january-27-2012.html
Proton event conditions at this time are ongoing with a slight drop in protons now occurring.

  
   NOAA Space Weather Alert:

EXTENDED WARNING:
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Valid From: 2012 Jan 27 1826 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2012 Jan 29 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Predicted NOAA Scale: S2 - Moderate


What is a Solar Radiation Storm?
What are the effects of a Solar Radiation Storm?
http://www.spaceweather.com/glossary/srs.html

X1.7 Flare, January 27, 2012

       
    Updated 04:52 UTC Jan 28 2012

  Sunspot Region 1402 unleashed an X flare that peaked at X1.7 at 18:33 UTC. There was a full halo CME seen in association with this X flare event. At this time, it would appear that Earth may see a glancing blow from this CME. We will update as more data comes in.

  

   The X Flare can easily be depicted on this image from  SDO/EVE SAM.  It can be seen originating from Sunspot Region 1402 which has now rotated off on to the far western limb of the solar disk.
This X flare wasEearth directed. Anything showing up on the Xray flux is Earth registered.
If this X flare had occured 4-5 days ago while directly Earth facing, it would have registered significantly higher on the X scale.

  

   This event caused another sharp rise in Protons, as we see here on the current GOES Proton Flux.

NOAA Alerts:

ALERT: Proton Event 100MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1pfu

Begin Time: 2012 Jan 27 1900 UTC

ALERT: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Begin Time: 2012 Jan 27 2105 UTC
NOAA Scale: S2 - Moderate

ALERT: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Begin Time: 2012 Jan 27 2105 UTC
NOAA Scale: S2 - Moderate

   This X 1.7 Flare started bombarding the Ionosphere with protons within minutes of being released from the Sun.  The majority of the energy is extinguished in the extreme lower region of the ionosphere (around 50-80 km in altitude). This area is particularly important to radio communications because this is the area where most of the absorption of radio signals energy occurs. The enhanced ionization produced by incoming energetic protons increases the absorption levels in the lower ionosphere and can have the effect of completely blocking all ionospheric radio communications through the polar regions. Such events are known as Polar Cap Absorption events (or PCAs). These events commence and last as long as the energy of incoming protons at approximately greater than 10 MeV exceeds

roughly 10 pfu. This graph shows the frequencies that are currently being affected, and where.

Solar Activity Update, January 27, 2012

      Updated @18:40 Jan. 27, 2012

    Sunspot Region 1402 unleashed an X flare that peaked at X1.7 at 18:33 UTC.

     
     As of this post there have been five C class flares recorded by GOES today from Sunspot Regions 1401, 1402, and 1409.  The largest of these flares was a C5.5 Solar Flare from Sunspot Region 1402 at 06:24 UTC.  There was a CME eruption from the SW region of the disk that is seen beginning to eject on SOHO LC2 at approximatley 05:12 UTC.  This CME was ejected from near a new Sunspot Region  that was developing before it rotated off of the Earth facing side of the disk, and has not yet been numbered.

In this SOHO Lasco C2 image we get a nice view of this latest CME as it continues to speed away from the Solar Disk. Because of the direction this CME was ejected, it is not expected to be geoeffective.

LDE Flare In Progress

  
   Latest Update - 08:17 UTC
   Jan 26, 2012 :

We have yet another LDE (long duration event) Flare in progress. This flare began around 04:09 UTC and reached a max of C6.4 at 05:49 UTC. This is the third LDE of 2012.

Keep checking back for current updates!

   There was a CME associated with

this LDE flare. Due to the location of 1402 on the far Northwest area of the solar disk, this CME is most likley not Earth directed

 

 

Region 1402 says "bye" but not without flaring

   We have C5.8 and a C7.9 solar flare from sunspot region 1402, one right after another.

*The first flare was a C5.8 that peaked at 00:36 UTC Jan 26th.

The background Xray level slowly dropped to C1.7, then went on the rise again at 01:40 UTC.

*The second flare was a C7.9 that peaked at 01:49 UTC Jan 26.

   Sunspot regions 1401 and 1402 are now on the Northwest limb and will soon rotate off the western limb out of a Earth facing view. But not without a last "Good bye"! We will have to wait around 20 days for these two very active regions to rotate back in Earths direction

 We also noticed some ejection on SDO

ACE Data Offline (Updated!)

   We wanted to do a quick post as to the situation with the ACE Satellite data.
Often, while watching a solar event, we hear people complain that the ACE data has stopped working. This is due to ACE being put into safe mode, in order to protect the sensors aboard the satellite. If the sensors are online and working when a significant solar event occurs, the sensors could be badly damaged.

Update Jan 25 @ 16:45 :
ACE is now back up and running. We started receiving data from ACE once more at around 10:00 UTC today. At 1st glance, it would appear that as reported below, the CRIS Image Intensifier did power off at 023-07:46:38, and has now powered back on.


Update Jan 25 @ 06:51 :
Our friend Joinca just brought the following to our attention. Thank you Joinca!

==================================================
ACE Weekly 01/17/2012 - 01/23/2012

All ACE spacecraft subsystems are performing as expected.

==================================================
Orbit/Attitude:

No maneuvers were completed this week.  The next attitude maneuver is
scheduled for Monday 01/30/2012.

===================================================
OCRs:

MOCR 387 has been approved to allow the spacecraft to violate the 4
degree sun constraint and drift to a sun angle of 2 degrees during the
February 2012 Solar Exclusion Zone (SEZ) transit.  The maneuver on
Monday 01/30/2012 will orient the spacecraft prior to the transit with a
sun angle of 10 degrees.  As the spacecraft moves relative to the sun,
the sun angle will decrease to 2 degrees on Wednesday 02/08/2012 and
then increase to 12 degrees when the next maneuver will occur on Tuesday
02/21/2012.

Powerfull Jan 23rd CME Arriving Now!

    Update @ 02:33 UTC Jan 25, 2012:

"Full power to the shields, Mr. Scott!"

On Jan 23, 2012 @ 03:59 UTC there was a CME produced in association with an M8.7sloar flare from Sunspot Region 1402. Here we see this CME approaching Earth's Magnetosphere on the most recent STEREO HI2
image taken at Jan 24 01:47 UTC.  Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab estimated an ejection velocity of 2200 km/s getting this CME across 147,098,070 km in near record time,

Event Summary:
-Sudden Geomagnetic Impulse detected @ 15:04.
-Conditions are subsiding.
-A Kp4 Geomagnetic Storm Watch is in effect.
-S2 Solar Radiation Storm is ongoing.
-Strongest Proton Storm since 2003.
-Protons levels are now decreasing.
-WE have no Solar Wind or Density data from ACE due.
to sensor contamination from the ongoing proton event.
Read full report for all details.

Solen reported on Jan 23, 2012: ACE solar wind speed, density and temperature became invalid after approx. 06:30 UTC due to sensor contamination.
http://www.solen.info/solar/

We have made a new report about the ACE satellite data issue.
You can read that report here.
http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/01/ace-data-offline.html

NOAA Space Weather Alerts:
WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected.
Valid From: 2012 Jan 24 1930 UTC.
Valid To: 2012 Jan 25 0100 UTC.
Warning Condition: Onset.
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate.

Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse.
Observed: 2012 Jan 24 1504 UTC.
Deviation: 22 nT.
Station: Boulder.

EXTENDED WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected.
Valid From: 2012 Jan 23 0500 UTC.
Now Valid Until: 2012 Jan 25 0100 UTC.
Warning Condition: Persistence.
Predicted NOAA Scale: S3 - Strong.

SOHO CELIAS/MTOF Proton Monitor:
@ 22:02 UTC Jan 24 2012...
-Solar Wind Speed:  584.50 km/s.
-Density: 5.29.

Shows a spike in wind speed...
@ 14:49 UTC Jan 24, 2012
-Solar Wind Speed: 760.10 km/s
-Density: 6.09

Another LDE M Flare and 2 CME's - Jan 23 2012

Update @ 22:18 UTC Jan 23, 2012:

 

Event Summery:

-The CME's are Earth directed.

-CME speed is 2200 km/s

-Will arrive on Jan 24, 2012 - 1 day after ejection 

-There was a R2 radio Blackout with this M flare

-There was Proton event associated this this event
-Strongest Proton event since 2003
-S3 Solar Radiation Storm is now in progress

Read full report for all details!

*A strong S3 Level radiation storm is still in progress.

This is the strongest proton event since 2003!

 NOAA Correction and New Data Update:
Issued 16:30 UTC Jan 24, 2012
Here we see a plot of the Protons and it shows the secondary increase of 10 MeV protons as the CME arrived.

Earlier, it was stated that the current Solar Radiation Storm was the largest since May 2005, when the 10 MeV protons exceeded over 3000 PFU. This was not correct.
At the time of the earlier post, this current Storm was the biggest since January 2005, when the 10 MeV flux was 5040 pfu. After the arrival of the CME earlier today, the 10 MeV flux again increased and we were at around 6300 pfu. This is now the largest Solar Radiation Storm since October 2003. (The Halloween Storms)

http://www.facebook.com/pages/NOAA-NWS-Space-Weather-Prediction-Center/232532740131296 

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/

*What is a Solar Radiation Storm? What are the effects?

Read the answer here:

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/index.html#SolarRadiationStorms

D Region Absorption @ 19:10 UTC

 *EXTENDED WARNING:

Issue Time: 2012 Jan 23 1426 UTC

 Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected

Extension to Serial Number: 336

Valid From: 2012 Jan 23 0500 UTC

Now Valid Until: 2012 Jan 24 1900 UTC

Warning Condition: Persistence

Predicted NOAA Scale: S3 - Strong

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/warnings_timeline.html

Solar Storm In Effect - CME Arrived (Updated)

    Update:  Jan 22nd 23:41 UTC
  At this time we are having a G1 Geomagnetic storm.
Geomagnetic conditions are ongoing
So far, conditions peaked between 10:00-12:00 UTC today. Solar winds topped out at speeds over 450km/sec. Density reached  65.6 protons/cm3

Current Solar Conditions:
Wind Speed: 447.9 km/sec
Density: 19.8  protons/cm3
Solar Storm Level - G1 - Minor
Kp Level is now at-  Kp5

High & Mid Latitude Aurora Watch in Effect

CME IMPACT: A coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth's magnetic field at 0617 UT on Jan. 22nd. At first the impact did not appear to be a strong one: the solar wind speed barely lifted itself to ~400 km/s when the CME passed by. Now, however, in the wake of the CME, a dense and increasingly geoeffective solar wind stream is blowing around Earth, setting the stage for possible auroras on the night of Jan. 22nd
http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=22&month=01&year=2012

Latest NOAA Alert:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 673
Issue Time: 2012 Jan 22 2022 UTC
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2012 Jan 22 2021 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Read our report tracking the beginning arrival of the Jan 19th 2012 CME
http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/01/jan-19th-cme-arriving-now.html

CME and Sunspot update

   Regions 1408 and 1409 were numbered in the night, both are small and simple. The largest regions on the visible disc 1401 and 1402 both simplified during the last 24 hours. Both regions saw spot decay in the trailing part of the groups. Region 1401 decreased in size while region 1402 increased in size slightly.

Region 11401 [N17W13] lost penumbral area and gained spots in the trailing spot section while the leading penumbra split into two. If the current separation between the leading and trailing spot section increases the region could be split. M class flares are possible.

Region 11402 [N30W08] remains capable of producing further M class flares. The large penumbra has taken on a symmetrical shape

http://www.solen.info/solar/

   We had a C7 solar flare peaking at 02:57 UTC and right after that  followed by a C3 flare at 04:00 UTC, both from  region 1401. We have to remember during the declining phase of large sunspot groups, solar flares can take place as spots disappear and opposing magnetic fields collapse on to each other. A large recurrent coronal hole (CH496) in the southern hemisphere could rotate into an Earth facing position on January 24-26. (CH497) is now in  a Earth facing position.

C7.1 Flare from Sunspot Region 1401

    Starting at 02:32 UTC on Sunday January 22, 2011, Sunspot Region 1401 released a C7.1 magnitude Solar Flare.  At the time of this post Sunspot Region 1401 is very active and can be seen interacting with it's companion Sunspot Region 1402, magnetically .  Keep watch in the following hours for more activity from these Sunspot Regions.

  Here we see the Global D Saturation as it increased significantly with this event.

Jan 19th CME Arriving Now

    Update:  Jan 22 @ 23:43 UTC

We are now having a G1 Minor Geomagnetic Storm

Geomagnetic conditions are ongoing

So far, conditions peaked between 10:00-12:00 UTC today. Solar winds topped out at speeds over 450km/sec. Density reached  65.6 protons/cm3

Current Solar Conditions:
Wind Speed: 447.9 km/sec
Density: 19.8  protons/cm3
Solar Storm Level - G1 - Minor
Kp Level is now at Kp5

High & Mid Latitude Aurora Watch in Effect

       Update: Jan 22 @ 07:30 UTC


     At 0516 UTC Jan 22, 2012 the ACE Spacecraft observed an IP Shock Passage. At 0614 UTC a Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse with a recorded deviation of 31 nT was recorded at the Boulder, CO Magnetometer. At 07:30 UTC The ACE data reads a proton density13.1 p/cc , Solar wind 427.0km/s, the BznT is -29.5, BynT -3.4. We expect this activity to continue throughout the day and will be posting updates.

Watch the CME arrival with us on the nict:

http://www2.nict.go.jp/y/y223/simulation/realtime/index.html

Channel Eruption on West limb - Old Region 1396

  Images show the sunspot region of the latest C 2.4 peaking at 13:42 UTC. Seems its the old region 1396 which rotates off the west limb . After and before this flare peaks, we noticed ejections on SDO.

  Around 10:00 UTC we can see a CME on STEREO A images that match's with the channel eruption on the west limb.


 http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/browse/2012/01/21/ahead_20120121_cor2_512.mpg