Sunday, February 26, 2012

Feb 24th CME Arriving Now. G2 Storm Expected



   Update 17:50 UTC Feb 27 2012 : 

The first signs of the CME from Feb 24th are now being seen.
ACE showed an increase in solar wind and density starting at 20:58 UTC
A G2 Geomagnetic Storm is expected.

Conditions from yesterday's CME impact continue into today, Feb 27, 2012.
Solar wind speed and density are slowly rising, and the Bz has now dipped into the negative.

ACE Data:
Solar wind is now at: 488.7 km/sec
Density is now at: 7.7 protons/cm
Max density reached: 36.3
@ 01:27 UTC Feb 27th

High latitudes be on the watch for auroras :)

We will be updating this report as conditions with this CME arrival change. Be sure to check back often.

Here we have the most recent images of the nict magnetosphere simulation

The Bz has now dipped south, going into the negative to a reading of -8.0 and a By reading of -2.7
Solar winds are at a speed of 488.2 with a density staying steady between 7 -10
This combination could stir up a slight geomagnetic storm
http://www2.nict.go.jp/y/y223/simulation/realtime/index.html

Here is a guide for understanding what we see on the nict magnetosphere simulation
http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/p/nict-guide.html
(This guide can be found at all times in the top navigation tabs of this site)

We also have expected coronal hole winds to arrive today.
This will effect how the remainder of this CME reacts with Earths magnetic field.
http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/02/new-coronal-hole-created-by-solar.html

Most Recent NOAA Space Weather Alert:
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 1874
Issue Time: 2012 Feb 27 1419 UTC
EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1873
Valid From: 2012 Feb 27 0220 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2012 Feb 27 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees
Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and
Alaska.
NOAA Space Weather Scales for Geomagnetic Storms:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/#GeomagneticStorms

This is the view of the Global D Region Absorption Map @ 22:34 UTC Feb 26, 2012


Original CME Report:

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