Expected CME Update:
this is my unofficial view
this because we have had so much activity with flares and CMEs that we would have to factor in Quantum entanglement.
We have talked about this in extent in the past here.
It is not just about the earth direction and size of a given CME, But there is a LOT of physics that plays into all this as well! Because of this, i do not have enough time to research into all the data and calculations before the arrival of the following CMEs.
So here we go :)
the ENLIL model is showing a hit from 2 CMEs starting around 00:30 UTC July 8th
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/
right now, it is 21:53 UTC
That would make the shortest ETA for the 1st hit to be somewhere in around 2-3 hours (8-9 pm EST)
these CMEs would be 1 from July 4th
the 1st one as we see here @ 01:24 UTC July 4th
http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/browse/2012/07/04/ahead/cor2/1024/20120704_012400_d4c2A.jpg
the 2nd one as we see here @ 23:54 UTC July 4th
http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/browse/2012/07/04/ahead/cor2/1024/20120704_235400_d4c2A.jpg
Then we have the CME associated with the early July 7th X flare
http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/browse/2012/07/07/ahead/cor2/1024/20120707_022424_d7c2A.jpg
We will see at least a glancing blow from this CME around late July 8th, into July 9th
we have the "Expected Events" list updated on the solar blog (on the right hand side)
http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/
Also lets note that there was a lot of CMEs between July 4th and today, July 7th, that could have been caught up at least partially in a magnetic connection between earth and the sun. thus we could see some mass from these CMEs being caught up with the earth directed CME's and giving a combined hit. i would say we can expect at lease a Kp5 storm starting later tonight, that has the potential of reaching as high as a Kp7 at times, with the geomagnetic conditions being unsettled to Storm conditions over the period of the next 60hrs
With the ionospheric conditions being what they have been from the rash of M flares we have had over a 7 day period (33 M flares and 1 X flare as of the time of this post) combined with the heat wave we have had in North America this past week, i would caution as to the possibility of strong, strange storms for the period that the CMEs are expected to hit/arrive.
Again, this is my unofficial view. I make this blog post only as a informational post of my view with the limited data i have been able to review due to time limitations.
- Ninzrez
We currently have a S1 solar radiation storm in effect that was brought upon by the X1.1 Solar flare and associated CME that occurred earlier today. A greater than 10 MeV Proton event
associated with yesterdays X-class event began at 04:00UTC and peaked at 25 pfu. The proton levels are now subsiding but the S1 storm remains in effect as of 22:19 UTC July 7, 2012.
Conditions in the D-Region of the Ionosphere have a dramatic effect on High Frequency (HF) communications and Low Frequency (LF) navigation systems like Loran. The global D-Region Absorption Product depicts the D-region at high latitudes where it is driven by particles as well as low latitudes, where photons cause the prompt changes. This product merges all latitudes using appropriate displays, and is useful to customers such as commercial aviation and maritime users.
SWPC Alert:
Issue Time: 2012 Jul 07 0428 UTC
ALERT: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Begin Time: 2012 Jul 07 0400 UTC
NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.
this is my unofficial view
this because we have had so much activity with flares and CMEs that we would have to factor in Quantum entanglement.
We have talked about this in extent in the past here.
It is not just about the earth direction and size of a given CME, But there is a LOT of physics that plays into all this as well! Because of this, i do not have enough time to research into all the data and calculations before the arrival of the following CMEs.
So here we go :)
the ENLIL model is showing a hit from 2 CMEs starting around 00:30 UTC July 8th
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/
right now, it is 21:53 UTC
That would make the shortest ETA for the 1st hit to be somewhere in around 2-3 hours (8-9 pm EST)
these CMEs would be 1 from July 4th
the 1st one as we see here @ 01:24 UTC July 4th
http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/browse/2012/07/04/ahead/cor2/1024/20120704_012400_d4c2A.jpg
the 2nd one as we see here @ 23:54 UTC July 4th
http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/browse/2012/07/04/ahead/cor2/1024/20120704_235400_d4c2A.jpg
Then we have the CME associated with the early July 7th X flare
http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/browse/2012/07/07/ahead/cor2/1024/20120707_022424_d7c2A.jpg
We will see at least a glancing blow from this CME around late July 8th, into July 9th
we have the "Expected Events" list updated on the solar blog (on the right hand side)
http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/
Also lets note that there was a lot of CMEs between July 4th and today, July 7th, that could have been caught up at least partially in a magnetic connection between earth and the sun. thus we could see some mass from these CMEs being caught up with the earth directed CME's and giving a combined hit. i would say we can expect at lease a Kp5 storm starting later tonight, that has the potential of reaching as high as a Kp7 at times, with the geomagnetic conditions being unsettled to Storm conditions over the period of the next 60hrs
With the ionospheric conditions being what they have been from the rash of M flares we have had over a 7 day period (33 M flares and 1 X flare as of the time of this post) combined with the heat wave we have had in North America this past week, i would caution as to the possibility of strong, strange storms for the period that the CMEs are expected to hit/arrive.
Again, this is my unofficial view. I make this blog post only as a informational post of my view with the limited data i have been able to review due to time limitations.
- Ninzrez
We currently have a S1 solar radiation storm in effect that was brought upon by the X1.1 Solar flare and associated CME that occurred earlier today. A greater than 10 MeV Proton event
associated with yesterdays X-class event began at 04:00UTC and peaked at 25 pfu. The proton levels are now subsiding but the S1 storm remains in effect as of 22:19 UTC July 7, 2012.
 |
| Global D Region Map as seen on July 8, 2012 @ 04:25 |
Conditions in the D-Region of the Ionosphere have a dramatic effect on High Frequency (HF) communications and Low Frequency (LF) navigation systems like Loran. The global D-Region Absorption Product depicts the D-region at high latitudes where it is driven by particles as well as low latitudes, where photons cause the prompt changes. This product merges all latitudes using appropriate displays, and is useful to customers such as commercial aviation and maritime users.
SWPC Alert:
Issue Time: 2012 Jul 07 0428 UTC
ALERT: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Begin Time: 2012 Jul 07 0400 UTC
NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.
Great stuff NiNz and crew!
ReplyDeleteMy own personal opinion on Solar Events and relation to strange localizised Storms is that all High Speed/Energy Particles from Solar Events helps seed the Clouds esp. when there is an elevated Electron Flux.
The Energetic Particles burst little pockets(M.O)of parts of the Atmospheres constituent Gasses which in turn helps Water Vapour to coalesce and hence Clouds and Rain and during times like now(33M Flares?)Major Storms and Floods.
Much Respect,
S'C.
thank you anonymous... that was what I was about to ask... what affect do these "non-extinction" (lol) flares have on our atmosphere and in turn our weather? and did it have any affect on the powerloss out east, eastern U.S., or was is just powerful storms?
ReplyDeleteand thank u to NINz for your part with this site... very informative and easy for us uneducated to follow. I left a comment, question, on the main page as well about the 10 min. integration clip for July 6th and the appearance of the entire sun flaring at the same time 1515 flared? could you explain that if you get a moment? Thank u again for the site.
ReplyDelete