Monday, July 2, 2012

M5.6 Flare + Massive Earth Directed CME from Sunspot Region 1515 - July 2, 2012

    Sunspot region 1515 just had a M5.6 Flare peeking at 10:52 UTC this morning. Sunspot region 1515 is located in the southern region of the solar disk and is in a directly earth facing position for the next few days. There was a large CME produced in association with todays M5.6 solar flare and due to the position of 1515, his CME would be Earth directed. We have also noticed 2 other possible earth effective CME's that occured earlier in the day. We are going through more data on todays events and will report anything we find.
There remains chances for further M flares today and possibly even a X flare.



Today's M5.6 solar flare comes on the heals of a string of flares we have had over this last week. Here is a list of the most recent M flares we have had.

July 2012
M5.6 Flare on 7/02/2012 @ 10:52 UTC - Sunspot 1515
- CME produced- ETA: to be announced
M1.1 Flare on 7/02/2012 @ 00:35 UTC - Sunspot 1513
M2.8 Flare on 7/01/2012 @ 19:18 UTC - Sunspot 1513

June 2012:
M1.6 Flare on 6/30/2012 @ 18:32 UTC - Sunspot 1513
M1.0 Flare on 6/30/2012 @ 12:52 UTC - Sunspot 1513
M2.2 Flare on 6/29/2012 @ 09:20 UTC - Sunspot 1513
M2.4 Flare on 6/28/2012 @ 16:12 UTC - Sunspot 1513

The last X flare we had was in April 2012
X1.3 Flare on 3/7/2012 @ 01:14 UTC - Sunspot 1429

Continue to check back often for further updates and alerts as todays solar events unfold.
All updates will be added to the bottom of this report.



Total M flares for July 2, 2012 is 3
Read full report for all details




Updated @ 22:58 UTC July 2, 2012:



   The 3rd M flare of July 2, 2012 has just occured.
M2.0 Flare on 7/02/2012 @ 23:56 UTC - Sunspot 1515
In the SDO image to the left, we can see there was a CME produced in association with this M flare event.

A 10cm radio burst was associated with this M flare

Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
Serial Number: 547
Issue Time: 2012 Jul 02 2108 UTC
SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2012 Jul 02 2001 UTC
Maximum Time: 2012 Jul 02 2002 UTC
End Time: 2012 Jul 02 2002 UTC
Duration: 1 minutes
Peak Flux: 190 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 166 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

Electrons are on the rise

Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 1925
Issue Time: 2012 Jul 02 1133 UTC
CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 1924
Begin Time: 2012 Jul 01 1320 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 3420 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

Geomagnetic conditions remain unsettled

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 1957
Issue Time: 2012 Jul 02 1855 UTC
EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1956
Valid From: 2012 Jul 02 0230 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2001 Jul 03 0100 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.



Updated @ 21:57 UTC July 2, 2012:





the 2nd M flare of July 2, 2012 has taken place
M3.8 Flare on 7/02/2012 @ 20:07 UTC - Sunspot 1515
It would appear that there was a CME produced in association with this M flare event




CME from M5.6 flare - Earth is located to the Left




Space Weather Alerts:

Space Weather Message Code: SUMXM5
Serial Number: 91
Issue Time: 2012 Jul 02 1151 UTC
SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2012 Jul 02 1043 UTC
Maximum Time: 2012 Jul 02 1052 UTC
End Time: 2012 Jul 02 1057 UTC
X-ray Class: M5.6
Optical Class: 2b
Location: S17E08
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes

---------------------------------
CME from M5.6 flare - Earth is located to the Right
Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 1925
Issue Time: 2012 Jul 02 1133 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 1924
Begin Time: 2012 Jul 01 1320 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 3420 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems

--------------------------------

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 801
Issue Time: 2012 Jul 02 1128 UTC
ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2012 Jul 02 1047 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1063 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.
-----------------------------------

Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
Serial Number: 546
Issue Time: 2012 Jul 02 1115 UTC

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2012 Jul 02 1046 UTC
Maximum Time: 2012 Jul 02 1047 UTC
End Time: 2012 Jul 02 1048 UTC
Duration: 2 minutes
Peak Flux: 380 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 380 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications



Solar wind flowing from this coronal hole should reach Earth on July 4-5.

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