LDE X Flare In Progress - Sunspot 1520 - July 12, 2012

   We  have a LDE (long duration event) X flare in progress. Starting at a C4.7 @ 16:11 UTC, The X ray flux peaked at a X1.4 @  16:52 UTC. .This LDE X flare is from Sunspot 1520.  Sunspot region 1520 is directly Earth facing today.
X1.4 Flare on 7/12/2012 @ 16:52 UTC - Sunspot 1520
- LDE lasting 5hrs
- CME produced- Earth Directed -
- ETA: We calculated the time of arrival around 06:00  UTC July 14th
+/- 4hrs



Continue to check back often for further updates and alerts as today's solar events unfold.
All updates will be added to the bottom of this report

Update @ 22:16 UTC July 12, 2012

After review of today's CME on STEREO A and STEREO B, we set the calculated  time of arrival around 06:00 UTC July 14th (+/- 4hrs.)
Moderate to severe geomagnetic storm activity reaching G2-G4 (Kp 6-8) will be possible at that time. We will continue to review data and will report on any changes we may find.

## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Center ( SWC )
## Message Type: Space Weather Alert##
## Message Issue Date: 2012-07-12T19:37:00Z
## Message ID: 20120712-AL-005

## Alert Summary:

Type O CME detected by STEREO-B COR2.

Start time of the event: 2012-07-12T16:54Z (STEREO-B-COR2).

Based on rough estimates (only STEREO-B-COR2 images are available currently) the CME parameters are:

Estimated speed: ~1400 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: ~ 70 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): -6/-17 in Heliocentric Earth Ecliptic coordinates.

The CME is associated with the X1.4 flare peaked at 2012-07-12T16:52Z (see alert 20120712-AL-001).

All spacecraft between the source region (AR 1520 - S15W01) and Earth (including MEO, GEO and other high-altitude orbits and high-inclination LEO) can be impacted. Updates on this event will be provided when available


* As a result of todays X flare and associated CME there is a S1 solar radiation storm in progress

Issue Time: 2012 Jul 12 1851 UTC
ALERT: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Begin Time: 2012 Jul 12 1835 UTC
NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

Update from SWPC:

2012-07-12 19:31 UTC Solar Eruption Today -- Further Analysis

The R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout today at 12:49 EDT (1649 UTC) was accompanied by an earth-directed CME. Hampered by limited observations of the event, SWPC forecasters are now anticipating the passage of the CME around 1:00 a.m. EDT, Saturday, July 14. G1 (minor) Geomagnetic Storm activity is expected to then ensue through the rest of the day. An S1 (minor) Solar Radiation Storm is now occurring, also a consequence of the flare/CME. The parent active region, NOAA 1520, appears to have retained its ability to erupt, so watch for more

Update @ 20:10 UTC July 12, 2012

At this time, around 4hrs since the beginning of today's X flare event, the Xray flux has dropped to the M1.1 level. Sunspot region 1520 has not lost it's strength after today's X1.4 flare and remains a threat for more major flares. Stay tuned

Stereo A has now updated for the 1st time ince 14:24 UTC. On the updated image we can see a large CME

Click on image to enlarge

Update @ 18:32 UTC July 12, 2012

A CME can now be seen on STEREO B. This CME does appear to be earth directed. STEREO A has not updated since 14:24 UTC today

At just over 2hrs from the beginning of this LDE X flare event, the Xray flux is now dropped to the M2.4 level.

There is a big jump in density @ ACE
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/SWEPAM_2h.html

High energy protons still on the rise @ ACE
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/SIS_2h.html
Note the dots in the graph, indicating a gap in data

It looks like they kept ACE online
Because of this, we might loose ACE soon because of particle saturation from the CME on the sensors.

High Energy Protons - ACE @ 18:33 UTC July 12,2012

Update @ 17:40 UTC July 12, 2012

High energy proton readings at ACE are on the rise

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/SIS_2h.html

as well as electrons

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/EPAMe_2h.html

Update @ 17:05 UTC July 12, 2012

At the time of this update, @ 17:03 the Xray flux is in a slow slow drop measuring a X1.2

SWPC ALERTS:

---------------------------------------------
Issue Time: 2012 Jul 12 1734 UTC
WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Valid From: 2012 Jul 12 1733 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Jul 13 0400 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

--------------------------------------

Issue Time: 2012 Jul 12 1709 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2012 Jul 12 1625 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1268 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

--------------------

Issue Time: 2012 Jul 12 1632 UTC

ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2012 Jul 12 1615 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

------------------------------
Issue Time: 2012 Jul 12 1627 UTC
ALERT: X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2012 Jul 12 1626 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/drap/index.html.