CME from July 12th X Flare Has Arrived

   Here comes the CME! OK OK we have something here everyone. After waiting all night, the 1st signs of the much anticipated CME from July 12, 2012 X flare are now showing up on ACE. A mid latitude aurora watch is in effect

SWPC Alert:

Issue Time: 2012 Jul 14 1736 UTC
WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2012 Jul 14 1800 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Jul 14 1830 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2012 Jul 14 1728 UTC

Solar winds and density @ ACE just jumped by over 200Km/sec and density is increasing

Solar conditions at ACE went from....
ACE Solar Conditions @ 16:59 UTC-
July 14, 2012
Solar Wind Speed : 384.1
Density: 4.9
Bz: -5.0

to what it is right now...
ACE Solar Conditions @ 17:33 UTC-
 July 14, 2012
Solar Wind Speed : 518.7
Density: 5.7
Bz: -15.2

The front of the CME has arrived at Boulder

Be on the lookout for Auroras at high latitudes

Issue Time: 2012 Jul 14 1817 UTC
SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2012 Jul 14 1811 UTC
Deviation: 27 nT
Station: Boulder



Continue to check back often for further updates and alerts as today's solar events unfold.
All updates will be added to the bottom of this report

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UPDATE @ 09:45 UTC July 15, 2012

Ace Solar Conditions @ 09:22 UTC-
July 15, 2012
Solar Wind Speed : 578.7 Km/s
Density 1.1
Bz -16.0

   Space Weather Message Code: ALTK06
Serial Number: 287
Issue Time: 2012 Jul 15 0754 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2012 Jul 15 0748 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0600-0900 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

                                                 UPDATE @ 02:41 UTC July 15, 2012

ACE Solar Conditions @ 05:29 UTC-
 July 15, 2012
Solar Wind Speed : 605.7 Km/sec
Density: 29.8.3
Bz: -4.0

UPDATE @ 02:41 UTC July 15, 2012

Solar wind speed, density and the Bz have been fluctuating up and down since this CME arrived earlier today. Right now, we see another rise in wind speed and density and the Bz just dipped south.

ACE Solar Conditions @ 02:31 UTC-
July 15, 2012
Solar Wind Speed : 660.6 Km/sec
Density: 12.0
Bz: -9.6

Everyone please keep in mind that this CME has only arrived at 17:28 UTC July 14

That was around 9hrs ago. This CME is forecasted to remain geoeffective for around 30hrs

We still have many hours left before this CME has completely passed by Earth.

We will keep watch for any significant changes and report accordingly as to any changes :) 

Added ACE data update:
Solar wind speed just jumped to 759.1 Km/sec


ACE Solar Conditions @ 03:13 UTC-
July 15, 2012
Solar Wind Speed : 759.1 Km/sec
Density: 13.3
Bz: +5.6

UPDATE @ 00:04 UTC July 15, 2012

Solar wind speeds at ACE have now reached over the 700 Km/sec mark

ACE Solar Conditions @ 00:02 UTC-
July 15, 2012
Solar Wind Speed : 706.12 Km/sec
Density: 12.0
Bz: -1.9

A Kp5 G1 Geomagnetic Storm continues at this time
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/kp_3d.html
If the solar wind speed continues at the 700 Km/sec range, we expect this storm level to be increased.
Be on the lookout for auroras

SWPC has issued an extension to their S1 solar radiation storm that began on July 12, 2012 and continues into today

Issue Time: 2012 Jul 14 2258 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Extension to Serial Number: 363
Valid From: 2012 Jul 13 1630 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2012 Jul 15 1100 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

Comment: This is an EXTENSION of the S1 Warning Issued at 12/1733Z. 10 MeV Protons are still above the S1 Alert threshold.
Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies

UPDATE @ 20:49 UTC July 14, 2012

Density has jumped at SOHO, showing that another wave of the CME is about to arrive

SOHO Solar Conditions @ 20:28 UTC-
July 14, 2012
Solar Wind Speed : 576.90
Density: 11.15

ACE Solar Conditions @ 20:45 UTC-
July 14, 2012
Solar Wind Speed : 578.3
Density: 3.9
Bz: -3.2

UPDATE @ 19:22 UTC July 14, 2012

WE believe that the front of the CME was merged with the filament that was ejected from the northern region of the solar surface in the late hours of July 11, 2012.

We can see this filament ejection as it is seen on STEREO A on July 11, 2012

http://www.defx.net/video/solar-flare-filament-eruption-in-the-northeast-of-the-sun-july-11-2012-video-vax

This merging is what we have now seen on solar data and the brunt of the CME we are expecting today has yet to arrive. We are still seeing only the front. As the hours go on today, we will be able to know for sure.

UPDATE @ 19:06 UTC July 14, 2012

A Kp5 G1 Geomagnetic Storm is now underway

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2012 Jul 14 1851 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ACE Solar Conditions @ 19:05 UTC-
July 14, 2012
Solar Wind Speed : 628.9
Density: 2.5
Bz: -3.2

UPDATE @ 18:28 UTC July 14, 2012

ACE Solar Conditions @ 18:28 UTC-
July 14, 2012
Solar Wind Speed : 606.0
Density: 6.2
Bz: -13.6

UPDATE @ 18:04 UTC July 14, 2012

ACE Solar Conditions @ 18:03 UTC-
 July 14, 2012
Solar Wind Speed : 666.0
Density: 4.7
Bz: -8.8
At this time, solar wind direction is remaining southward (negative Bz). A southward direction of the solar winds accompanying this CME will help stir up a geomagnetic storm. The more negative the Bz, with higher speed solar winds, with higher density = The stronger the Geomagnetic Storm
If the Bz turns northward (positive Bz) with slower solar wind speeds, with lower density = the weaker the Geomagnetic Storm is.

We are now also seeing a sharp rise on the GOES Magnetometer
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/mag_3d.html

SWPC Alerts:

Issue Time: 2012 Jul 15 0254 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 788
Valid From: 2012 Jul 14 1740 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2012 Jul 15 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

---

Issue Time: 2012 Jul 15 0254 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1972
Valid From: 2012 Jul 14 1740 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2012 Jul 15 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

---

Issue Time: 2012 Jul 14 1914 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2012 Jul 14 1915 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Jul 14 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

---

Issue Time: 2012 Jul 14 1853 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2012 Jul 14 1851 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

---

Issue Time: 2012 Jul 14 1817 UTC
SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2012 Jul 14 1811 UTC
Deviation: 27 nT
Station: Boulder

---

Issue Time: 2012 Jul 14 1814 UTC
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2012 Jul 14 1812 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska

---

Issue Time: 2012 Jul 14 1738 UTC
WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2012 Jul 14 1740 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Jul 15 0300 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

---

Issue Time: 2012 Jul 14 1738 UTC
WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2012 Jul 14 1740 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Jul 15 0300 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

---

Issue Time: 2012 Jul 14 1736 UTC
WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2012 Jul 14 1800 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Jul 14 1830 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2012 Jul 14 1728 UTC

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