Starting today at around 13:15 UTC a LDE (long duration event) solar flare began around sunspot 1520. This event is still in progress at this time with it reaching a M1.7 level thus far
There was a large bright CME seen in association with this LDE Flare
It is unsure at this time if this CME will be geoeffective or not
Here comes the CME! OK OK we have something here everyone. After waiting all night, the 1st signs of the much anticipated CME from July 12, 2012 X flare are now showing up on ACE. A mid latitude aurora watch is in effect
SWPC Alert:
Issue Time: 2012 Jul 14 1736 UTC
WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2012 Jul 14 1800
UTC
Valid To: 2012 Jul 14 1830 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2012 Jul 14
1728 UTC
Solar winds and density @ ACE just jumped by over 200Km/sec and density is increasing
Solar conditions at ACE went from....
ACE Solar Conditions @ 16:59 UTC-
July 14, 2012
Solar Wind Speed : 384.1
Density: 4.9
Bz: -5.0
to what it is right now...
ACE Solar Conditions @ 17:33 UTC-
July 14, 2012
Solar Wind Speed : 518.7
Density: 5.7
Bz: -15.2
The front of the CME has arrived at Boulder
Be on the lookout for Auroras at high latitudes
Issue Time: 2012
Jul 14 1817 UTC
SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2012 Jul 14 1811
UTC
Deviation: 27 nT
Station: Boulder
Continue to check back often for further updates and alerts as today's
solar events unfold. All updates will be added to the bottom of this
report
Ace Solar Conditions @ 09:22 UTC-
July 15, 2012
Solar Wind Speed : 578.7 Km/s
Density 1.1
Bz -16.0
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK06
Serial Number: 287
Issue Time: 2012
Jul 15 0754 UTC
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached:
2012 Jul 15 0748 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0600-0900 UTC
Active Warning:
Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily
poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid
fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage
alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur;
increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high
frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora
may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.
UPDATE @ 02:41 UTC July 15, 2012
ACE Solar Conditions @ 05:29 UTC-
July 15, 2012
Solar Wind Speed : 605.7 Km/sec
Density: 29.8.3
Bz: -4.0
UPDATE @ 02:41 UTC July 15, 2012
Solar wind speed, density and the Bz have been fluctuating up and down since this CME arrived earlier today. Right now, we see another rise in wind speed and density and the Bz just dipped south.
ACE Solar Conditions @ 02:31 UTC-
July 15, 2012
Solar Wind Speed : 660.6 Km/sec
Density: 12.0
Bz: -9.6
Everyone please keep in mind that this CME has only arrived at 17:28 UTC July 14
That was around 9hrs ago. This CME is forecasted to remain geoeffective for around 30hrs
We still have many hours left before this CME has completely passed by Earth.
We will keep watch for any significant changes and report accordingly as to any changes :)
Added ACE data update:
Solar wind speed just jumped to 759.1 Km/sec
ACE Solar Conditions @ 03:13 UTC-
July 15, 2012
Solar Wind Speed : 759.1 Km/sec
Density: 13.3
Bz: +5.6
We have a LDE (long duration event) X flare in progress. Starting at a C4.7 @ 16:11 UTC, The X ray flux peaked at a X1.4 @ 16:52 UTC. .This LDE X flare is from Sunspot 1520. Sunspot region 1520 is directly Earth facing today.
X1.4 Flare on 7/12/2012 @ 16:52 UTC - Sunspot 1520
- LDE lasting 5hrs
- CME produced- Earth Directed -
- ETA: We calculated the time of arrival around 06:00 UTC July 14th
+/- 4hrs
Continue to check back often for further updates and alerts as today's
solar events unfold. All updates will be added to the bottom of this
report
Update @ 22:16 UTC July 12, 2012
After review of today's CME on STEREO A and STEREO B, we set the calculated time of arrival around 06:00 UTC July 14th (+/- 4hrs.)
Moderate to severe geomagnetic storm activity reaching G2-G4 (Kp 6-8) will be possible at that time. We will continue to review data and will report on any changes we may find.
## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Center ( SWC ) ## Message Type: Space Weather Alert##
## Message Issue Date: 2012-07-12T19:37:00Z
## Message ID: 20120712-AL-005
## Alert Summary:
Type O CME detected by STEREO-B COR2.
Start time of the event: 2012-07-12T16:54Z (STEREO-B-COR2).
Based on rough estimates (only STEREO-B-COR2 images are available currently) the CME parameters are:
Estimated speed: ~1400 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: ~ 70 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -6/-17 in Heliocentric Earth Ecliptic coordinates.
The CME is associated with the X1.4 flare peaked at 2012-07-12T16:52Z (see alert 20120712-AL-001).
All spacecraft between the source region (AR 1520 - S15W01) and Earth (including MEO, GEO and other high-altitude orbits and high-inclination LEO) can be impacted. Updates on this event will be provided when available
* As a result of todays X flare and associated CME there is a S1 solar radiation storm in progress
Issue Time: 2012 Jul 12 1851 UTC
ALERT: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Begin Time: 2012
Jul 12 1835 UTC
NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor
impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at
lower frequencies.
2012-07-12 19:31 UTC Solar Eruption Today -- Further Analysis
The R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout today at 12:49 EDT (1649
UTC) was accompanied by an earth-directed CME. Hampered by limited observations
of the event, SWPC forecasters are now anticipating the passage of the CME
around 1:00 a.m. EDT, Saturday, July 14. G1 (minor) Geomagnetic Storm activity
is expected to then ensue through the rest of the day. An S1 (minor) Solar
Radiation Storm is now occurring, also a consequence of the flare/CME. The
parent active region, NOAA 1520, appears to have retained its ability to erupt,
so watch for more
Expected CME Update:
this is my unofficial view
this because we have had so much activity with flares and CMEs that we would have to factor in Quantum entanglement.
We have talked about this in extent in the past here.
It is not just about the earth direction and size of a given CME, But there is a LOT of physics that plays into all this as well! Because of this, i do not have enough time to research into all the data and calculations before the arrival of the following CMEs.
So here we go :)
Also lets note that there was a lot of CMEs between July 4th and today, July 7th, that could have been caught up at least partially in a magnetic connection between earth and the sun. thus we could see some mass from these CMEs being caught up with the earth directed CME's and giving a combined hit. i would say we can expect at lease a Kp5 storm starting later tonight, that has the potential of reaching as high as a Kp7 at times, with the geomagnetic conditions being unsettled to Storm conditions over the period of the next 60hrs
With the ionospheric conditions being what they have been from the rash of M flares we have had over a 7 day period (33 M flares and 1 X flare as of the time of this post) combined with the heat wave we have had in North America this past week, i would caution as to the possibility of strong, strange storms for the period that the CMEs are expected to hit/arrive.
Again, this is my unofficial view. I make this blog post only as a informational post of my view with the limited data i have been able to review due to time limitations.
- Ninzrez
We currently have a S1 solar radiation storm in effect that was brought upon by the X1.1 Solar flare and associated CME that occurred earlier today. A greater than 10 MeV Proton event
associated with yesterdays X-class event began at 04:00UTC and peaked at 25 pfu. The proton levels are now subsiding but the S1 storm remains in effect as of 22:19 UTC July 7, 2012.
Global D Region Map as seen on July 8, 2012 @ 04:25
Conditions in the D-Region of the Ionosphere have a dramatic effect on High Frequency (HF) communications and Low Frequency (LF) navigation systems like Loran. The global D-Region Absorption Product depicts the D-region at high latitudes where it is driven by particles as well as low latitudes, where photons cause the prompt changes. This product merges all latitudes using appropriate displays, and is useful to customers such as commercial aviation and maritime users.
SWPC Alert:
Issue Time: 2012 Jul 07 0428 UTC ALERT: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Begin Time: 2012
Jul 07 0400 UTC
NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor
impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at
lower frequencies.
A X1.1 solar flare has occurred peaking at 23:08 UTC Friday July 6, 2012. Today's X flare comes from large sunspot region 1515.
Continue to check back often for further updates and alerts as todays
solar events unfold. All updates will be added to the
bottom of this report
SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2012 Jul 06 2301
UTC
Maximum Time: 2012 Jul 06 2308 UTC
End Time: 2012 Jul 06 2314
UTC
X-ray Class: X1.1
Location: S18W50
NOAA Scale: R3 -
Strong
Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the
sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
Radio - Wide area
blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.
---------------------------------------------------------------------- SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2012 Jul 06 2304 UTC
Maximum
Time: 2012 Jul 06 2306 UTC
End Time: 2012 Jul 06 2306 UTC
Duration: 2
minutes
Peak Flux: 520 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 158
sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst
associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than
the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio
noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but
can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and
satellite communications.
UPDATE @ 02:44 UTC July 7, 2012
There has been some question about the discrepancy seen between the GOES 3day Xray flux and the 5min Xray flux. We have noticed that the calibration for the 3 day Xray flux is off by around a 1.0 margin and has been that way for about a week now. Any M flare that we have had this week that was around M1 range has been showing on the 3day GOES Xray flux as a high C flare. Note the M flares on here and count how many M flares you see for July 6th
Any M that registered around a M1 range was shown on the 3 day Xray flux as a high C. Now this X1 occurred and it does the same and shows this X1.1 flare on the 3day as a high M. The 3 day Xray graph is around a 1.0 mark off. We have written to NOAA/SWPC about this issue.
UPDATE @ 01:08 UTC July 7, 2012
ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2012 Jul 06 2322
UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions
on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and
solar radiation storms.
We now see there IS a CME associated with this X flare event. Earth is well connected with the region of 1515. This CME was not directly Earth directed as it was ejected to the south and west. but a glancing blow to Earth's magnetosphere is likely late on July 9th into the 10th
X-FLARE: Giant sunspot AR1515 unleashed a strong X1.1-class solar flare on July 6th at 2308 UT. Because Earth is well-connected to the blast site by solar magnetic fields, a fusillade of protons accelerated by the explosion might soon reach our planet.
At this time, the geomagnetic conditions are unsettled with a Kp 5
Issue Time: 2012
Jul 06 2246 UTC ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2012 Jul 06 2241
UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 -
Minor
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees
Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can
occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora
- Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such
as northern Michigan and Maine
Thank you for choosing "My Solar Alerts" for your Solar Weather updates
Once again Sunspot Region 1515 has produced a significant event, releasing a M6.1 S/F lasting in duration from 11:39 :00 untill 11:49:00 ,and peaking at 11:44:00 UTC today July 5, 2012. Another M1.2 peaking at 13:17 swiftly followed with a large CME eruption off of the sw limb. Current projections do not see this CME being geoeffective.
Space Weather Message Code: ALTXMF
Serial Number: 174
Issue Time: 2012
Jul 05 1146 UTC
ALERT: X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2012
Jul 05 1145 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of
impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of
blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray
Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration
please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/drap/index.html.
Space Weather Message Code: SUMXM5
Serial Number: 93
Issue Time: 2012
Jul 05 1224 UTC
SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2012 Jul
05 1139 UTC
Maximum Time: 2012 Jul 05 1144 UTC
End Time: 2012 Jul 05 1149
UTC
X-ray Class: M6.1
Optical Class: 1b
Location: S20W32
NOAA Scale:
R2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on
sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF
(high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.
Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
Serial Number: 552
Issue Time: 2012
Jul 05 1230 UTC
SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2012 Jul 05 1142
UTC
Maximum Time: 2012 Jul 05 1144 UTC
End Time: 2012 Jul 05 1145
UTC
Duration: 3 minutes
Peak Flux: 290 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux:
163 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic
burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater
than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant
radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally
short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar,
GPS, and satellite communications.
These events continue unfoldindg and we will be updating this post with new information and images as the day progresses; so continue to check back here for your latest updates.
Thank you for choosing "My Solar Alerts" for your
Solar Weather updates.
Update @ 14:00:00 UTC
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 1958
Issue Time: 2012
Jul 05 1303 UTC
WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From:
2012 Jul 05 1302 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Jul 05 1900 UTC
Warning Condition:
Onset
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees
Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can
occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and
Alaska.
Sunspot region 1515 just had a M5.6 Flare peeking at 10:52 UTC this morning. Sunspot region 1515 is located in the southern region of the solar disk and is in a directly earth facing position for the next few days. There was a large CME produced in association with todays M5.6 solar flare and due to the position of 1515, his CME would be Earth directed. We have also noticed 2 other possible earth effective CME's that occured earlier in the day. We are going through more data on todays events and will report anything we find.
There remains chances for further M flares today and possibly even a X flare.
Today's M5.6 solar flare comes on the heals of a string of flares we have had over this last week. Here is a list of the most recent M flares we have had.
July 2012
M5.6 Flare on 7/02/2012 @ 10:52 UTC - Sunspot 1515
- CME produced- ETA: to be announced
M1.1 Flare on 7/02/2012 @ 00:35 UTC - Sunspot 1513
M2.8 Flare on 7/01/2012 @ 19:18 UTC - Sunspot 1513
June 2012:
M1.6 Flare on 6/30/2012 @ 18:32 UTC - Sunspot 1513
M1.0 Flare on 6/30/2012 @ 12:52 UTC - Sunspot 1513
M2.2 Flare on 6/29/2012 @ 09:20 UTC - Sunspot 1513
M2.4 Flare on 6/28/2012 @ 16:12 UTC - Sunspot 1513
The last X flare we had was in April 2012 X1.3 Flare on 3/7/2012 @ 01:14 UTC - Sunspot 1429
Continue to check back often for further updates and alerts as todays solar events unfold. All updates will be
added to the bottom of this report.
Total M flares for July 2, 2012 is 3
Read full report for all details
