Solar Activity Update for March 7, 2012

   A S3-Strong Solar Radiation Storm is in Progress

View report for this event here:

 http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/03/solar-radiation-storm-in-progress.html

Issue Time: 2012 Mar 07 1417 UTC

ALERT: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfuBegin Time: 2012 Mar 07 1410 UTC

NOAA Scale: S3 - Strong

Potential Impacts: Radiation - Passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights may experience increasing radiation exposures. Astronauts on EVA (extra-vehicular activity) are exposed to elevated radiation levels.

Spacecraft - Single-event upsets to satellite operations, noise in imaging systems, and slight reduction of efficiency in solar panels are likely.

Radio - Degraded or episodically blacked-out polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation.

Update 17:40 UTC March 9, 2012:
This Solar Proton Event continues into today

Issue Time: 2012 Mar 09 1740 UTC
EXTENDED WARNING: Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected
Extension to Serial Number: 57
Valid From: 2012 Mar 07 0300 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2012 Mar 10 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

   Starting at around 04:29 UTC today, We had a CME arrival. This CME was caused by a filament that became unstable on March 4th and was ejected from the solar surface. 

View report for this event here:

http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/03/m20-lde-flare-from-sunspot-1429.html

A Kp6 (moderate G2) geomagnetic storm was reached today around 08:52 UTC. This G3 storm has now subsided to the current conditions of of a G1 storm.

There was also another CME that occurred on March 4th that could have combined with the filament and arrived at the same time. We will monitor solar conditions today and report on any changes that are seen.

Issue Time: 2012 Mar 07 1454 UTC
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2012 Mar 07 1448 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1200-1500 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state

Solar Radiation Storm in Progress

    Updated @ 17:24 UT March 7, 2012

     A SEP event is underway. We have become magnetically conected to Sunspot Region 1429.  At the time of this original post the 10MeV Integral Flux has exceeded 100pfu.

 NOAA Scale: S2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Radiation - Passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights may experience small, increased radiation exposures.

Spacecraft - Infrequent single-event upsets to satellites are possible.

Radio - Small effects on polar HF (high frequency) propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.. Additional flaring from region 1429 will rapidly increase this proton flux.  When our "foot point" location, the area that we are magnetically conected to the Sun at becomes located at or very near an active region the connection allows Solar Energetic Particles such as protons and electrons to travel an extremely fast and direct path to Earth during a Solar Flare from that region. These Solar Energetic Particles travel at approximately 80% the speed of light and start bombarding the Ionosphere, within a few hours of a Solar Flare.  Additionally, during these events, CME driven shocks contribute to accelerating these particles. This Event was precipitated by the X 5.4 flare released early March 7, 2012 at  00:40 UT from Sunspot Region 1429.

    Here we can see the proximity of Earths "Foot Point" location to Sunspot Region 1429  just prior to the X 5.4 Solar Flare. Given this interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) connection between Sunspot Region 1429 and the Earth, very energetic solar protons have began saturating the Ionosphere. A more delayed effect may result with the CME that was produced with this X flare.  Since the radial propagation speed is expecded to be < 1000km/s with the arrival of the associated CME expected tomorrow March 8, the high solar wind speed accompanying the shock , plus high plasma number densities with a strong southward IMF, we can expect a sudden storm commencement or (SSC).  These geomagnetic storms generally produce large magnetic disturbances due to ring current enhancements.

Updated Proton Flux at 17:24UT March 7, 2012
Space Weather Message Code: ALTPX3
Serial Number: 25
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 07 1417 UTC

ALERT: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 07 1410 UTC
NOAA Scale: S3 - Strong
Potential Impacts: Radiation - Passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights may experience increasing radiation exposures. Astronauts on EVA (extra-vehicular activity) are exposed to elevated radiation levels.
Spacecraft - Single-event upsets to satellite operations, noise in imaging systems, and slight reduction of efficiency in solar panels are likely.
Radio - Degraded or episodically blacked-out polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/warnings_timeline.html


Update - March 9, 2012 @ 17:40 UTC

SEP event continues into March 9, 2012. We are now into the 2nd full day of protons remaining above the event level. A S2 Solar Radiation Strom is in effect at this time

Solar Radiation Storm Levels

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/#SolarRadiationStorms

Issue Time: 2012 Mar 09 1740 UTC
EXTENDED WARNING: Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expectedExtension to Serial Number: 57
Valid From: 2012 Mar 07 0300 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2012 Mar 10 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Potential Impacts: An enhancement in the energetic portion of the solar radiation spectrum may indicate increased biological risk to astronauts or passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights. Additionally, energetic particles may represent an increased risk to all satellite systems susceptible to single event effects. This information should be used in conjunction with the current Solar Radiation Storm conditions when assessing overall impact

X5.4 Major Solar Flare from Region 1429 - March 7, 2012

   Updated 03:28 UTC March 7 2012 :

A major X5.4 solar flare has just occured at 00:24 UTC March 7, 2012 followed by a  X1.3 solar flare occurring at 01:14 UTC. 

The X5.4 & X1.3 flares came from sunspot region 1429. This event produced a R3 radio blackout.
Sunspot region 1429 is Earth directed and here was a large dence CME produced with this X class event.

The estimated arrival time of this CME is at between 05:00 and 11:00 UTC March 8th

Update March 9 2012 @ 15:49 UTC:

The CME associated with this event has arrived.

View full report here

http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/03/x54-solar-flare-cme-arrives.html

Update on the solar flares:
just issued from NOAA

2012-03-07 01:03   Strong Solar Eruption; Earth-Directed CME Likely
An R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout is now in progress, beginning about 7:00 p.m. EST today. The site of the eruption, previously active Region 1429, is now near center disk, so there's  high-potential of an earth-directed CME. In addition, expect the imminent beginning of a Solar Radiation Storm. Analysis now occurring on both fronts
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/

the Xray flux was slowly dropping after the X5.4 solar flare, it dropped to around the X1.0 level, and is right now on a slow rise back up
 http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_1m.html

currently at a X1.3
this is seen happening a lot of the time when there is a CME produced with the associated solar flare

Here we see this X flare on sdo EVE













 NOAA Alerts:
SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 07 0002 UTC
Maximum Time: 2012 Mar 07 0024 UTC
End Time: 2012 Mar 07 0040 UTC
X-ray Class: X5.4
Location: N17E29
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong
Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
Radio - Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.

WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Valid From: 2012 Mar 07 0030 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Mar 08 0000 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

ALERT: X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2012 Mar 07 0008 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/drap/index.html.

Chances for Strong Flares Increase - March 5, 2012

   Updated 19:31 UTC March 5, 2012 :

Sunspot region 1429 has just has two M flares only minutes apart. A M2.1 flare at 19:16 UTC and a M1.8 flare at 19:30 UTC.

Solar activity has picked up quite a bit since March started.
The X-rays from sunspot region 1429 have been very active today.
Flares produced today, March 5th from region 1429 :
 X1.1 C2.3, C5.8, C1.2, C5.4, C7.8, C9.8, C6.8, M2.1 and a M1.8

The background X-ray flux has not dropping below the C1 range since we had the X1.1 flare today at 04:29 UTC


- Today we have chances for M & X flares from 1429 and chances for M flares from 1428

  NOAA has this to say-
Big sunspot 1429 poses a threat for X-class solar flares
with today:
-a 60% chance for M flares
-a 15% chance for X flares
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/forecast.html

based on +/- componants within the sunspots
1429 chance for flares right now
-54% chance for M
-50% chance for X
http://spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk/monitor.html

We are also seeing a slight rise in Flare chances for southern regions 1428 in the southeastern area, and an unnamed region in the southwestern area

We will be staying on top of today's activity 
Keep checking back for updated information!

From solen:
Minor update added at 17:30 UTC: Region 11429 appears to be preparing for another major flare. The magnetic delta structure shows no signs of weakening, on the contrary, umbrae near the inversion line are bigger and more numerous.
Region 11428 is developing as well and could produce a minor M class flare:
http://www.solen.info/solar/

If regions 1429 and 1428 flare at the same time, this is increase the Xray flare level

A closer look at sunspot region 1429

A solar wind stream flowing from CH505 (minor coronal hole) could reach Earth on March 5-6. A solar wind stream flowing from CH506 (coronal hole) could reach Earth on March 8-9

  SEP flux at energies above 10 MeV started to rise since around 00:00 UT today (probably resulting from the CME associated with yesterday's M2.0 flare). Crossing the threshold of an SEP event is probable in the coming hours. Protons from both CMEs are delayed due to the eastern position of the CME source region. http://www.sidc.oma.be/index.php

NOAA Space Wather Alert :

Issue Time: 2012 Mar 05 1517 UTC

WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Valid From: 2012 Mar 05 2100 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Mar 06 2100 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies