Jan 19th CME Arriving Now

    Update:  Jan 22 @ 23:43 UTC

We are now having a G1 Minor Geomagnetic Storm

Geomagnetic conditions are ongoing

So far, conditions peaked between 10:00-12:00 UTC today. Solar winds topped out at speeds over 450km/sec. Density reached  65.6 protons/cm3

Current Solar Conditions:
Wind Speed: 447.9 km/sec
Density: 19.8  protons/cm3
Solar Storm Level - G1 - Minor
Kp Level is now at Kp5

High & Mid Latitude Aurora Watch in Effect

       Update: Jan 22 @ 07:30 UTC


     At 0516 UTC Jan 22, 2012 the ACE Spacecraft observed an IP Shock Passage. At 0614 UTC a Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse with a recorded deviation of 31 nT was recorded at the Boulder, CO Magnetometer. At 07:30 UTC The ACE data reads a proton density13.1 p/cc , Solar wind 427.0km/s, the BznT is -29.5, BynT -3.4. We expect this activity to continue throughout the day and will be posting updates.

Watch the CME arrival with us on the nict:

http://www2.nict.go.jp/y/y223/simulation/realtime/index.html

Channel Eruption on West limb - Old Region 1396

  Images show the sunspot region of the latest C 2.4 peaking at 13:42 UTC. Seems its the old region 1396 which rotates off the west limb . After and before this flare peaks, we noticed ejections on SDO.

  Around 10:00 UTC we can see a CME on STEREO A images that match's with the channel eruption on the west limb.


 http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/browse/2012/01/21/ahead_20120121_cor2_512.mpg

CME arrives as expected.

 
    At approximately 04:01 UTC the CME that accompanied the January 16th LDE C 6.5 flare from Sunspot Region 1402 arrived.  At 04:01 ACE data showed an increase in proton density from 1.6 P/cc to 8.3P/cc and an uptick in the solar wind from 301.1 K/ps to 343.5 K/ps. This is just the first in a wave of CMEs expected over the next couple of days. This CME is only expected to give a glancing blow, as the majority of it will sweep past Earth in a northward direction. We will be anxiously awaiting the arrival of a larger double CME wave that was associated with the M3.2 LDE on thursday the 19th.  The Next CME is expected to arrive Sunday into Monday UTC. Be sure to check back for updates on these developing events.
The original post on this LDE  flare and CME can be seen here.

http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/01/long-duration-flare-and-cme.html

Chance of SEP Event increasing.

 

 
    The chance of a SEP (Solar Energetic Particle),or Proton event is on the rise. A strong magnetic connection of the Earth at Sunspot Region 1402 during yesterdays LDE M3.2 flare increased the precipitation of a stream of these particles to start bombarding Earths Ionosphere several hours later.When solar protons enter the Earth's magnetosphere where the magnetic fields become stronger than the solar magnetic fields, they are guided by the Earth's magnetic field into the polar regions where the majority of the Earth's magnetic field lines enter and exit. These protons then release their energy  through the process of ionization. The Graph to the left shows the current level of the ACE Spacecraft's readings of High Energy Protons.

  The majority of the energy is extinguished in the extreme lower region of the ionosphere (around 50-80 km in altitude). This area is particularly important to radio communications because this is the area where most of the absorption of radio signals energy occurs. The enhanced ionization produced by incoming energetic protons increases the absorption levels in the lower ionosphere and can have the effect of completely blocking all ionospheric radio communications through the polar regions. Such events are known as Polar Cap Absorption events (or PCAs). These events commence and last as long as the energy of incoming protons at approximately greater than 10 MeV exceeds roughly 10 pfu. This graph shows the frequencies that are currently being affected, and where.