Solar Conditions July 7, 2012 By Ninzrez

Expected CME Update:
this is my unofficial view
this because we have had so much activity with flares and CMEs that we would have to factor in Quantum entanglement.
We have talked about this in extent in the past here.
It is not just about the earth direction and size of a given CME, But there is a LOT of physics that plays into all this as well! Because of this, i do not have enough time to research into all the data and calculations before the arrival of the following CMEs.
So here we go :)
 
the ENLIL model is showing a hit from 2 CMEs starting around 00:30 UTC July 8th
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/
right now, it is 21:53 UTC
That would make the shortest ETA for the 1st hit to be somewhere in around 2-3 hours (8-9 pm EST)
these CMEs would be 1 from July 4th
the 1st one as we see here @ 01:24 UTC July 4th
http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/browse/2012/07/04/ahead/cor2/1024/20120704_012400_d4c2A.jpg
the 2nd one as we see here @ 23:54 UTC July 4th
http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/browse/2012/07/04/ahead/cor2/1024/20120704_235400_d4c2A.jpg
Then we have the CME associated with the early July 7th X flare
http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/browse/2012/07/07/ahead/cor2/1024/20120707_022424_d7c2A.jpg
We will see at least a glancing blow from this CME around late July 8th, into July 9th
we have the "Expected Events" list updated on the solar blog (on the right hand side)
http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/

Also lets note that there was a lot of CMEs between July 4th and today, July 7th, that could have been caught up at least partially in a magnetic connection between earth and the sun. thus we could see some mass from these CMEs being caught up with the earth directed CME's and giving a combined hit. i would say we can expect at lease a Kp5 storm starting later tonight, that has the potential of reaching as high as a Kp7 at times, with the geomagnetic conditions being unsettled to Storm conditions over the period of the next 60hrs
With the ionospheric conditions being what they have been from the rash of M flares we have had over a 7 day period (33 M flares and 1 X flare as of the time of this post) combined with the heat wave we have had in North America this past week, i would caution as to the possibility of strong, strange storms for the period that the CMEs are expected to hit/arrive.

Again, this is my unofficial view. I make this blog post only as a informational post of my view with the limited data i have been able to review due to time limitations.
- Ninzrez

We currently have a S1 solar radiation storm in effect that was brought upon by the X1.1 Solar flare and associated CME that occurred earlier today. A greater than 10 MeV Proton event
associated with yesterdays X-class event began at 04:00UTC and peaked at 25 pfu. The proton levels are now subsiding but the S1 storm remains in effect as of 22:19 UTC July 7, 2012.



Global D Region Map as seen on July 8, 2012 @ 04:25

Conditions in the D-Region of the Ionosphere have a dramatic effect on High Frequency (HF) communications and Low Frequency (LF) navigation systems like Loran. The global D-Region Absorption Product depicts the D-region at high latitudes where it is driven by particles as well as low latitudes, where photons cause the prompt changes. This product merges all latitudes using appropriate displays, and is useful to customers such as commercial aviation and maritime users.

SWPC Alert:
Issue Time: 2012 Jul 07 0428 UTC
ALERT: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Begin Time: 2012 Jul 07 0400 UTC
NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

X1.1 Solar Flare - July 6, 2012

A X1.1 solar flare has occurred peaking at 23:08 UTC Friday July 6, 2012. Today's X flare comes from large sunspot region 1515.

Continue to check back often for further updates and alerts as todays solar events unfold.
All updates will be added to the bottom of this report

SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded X1

Begin Time: 2012 Jul 06 2301 UTC

Maximum Time: 2012 Jul 06 2308 UTC

End Time: 2012 Jul 06 2314 UTC

X-ray Class: X1.1

Location: S18W50

NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong

Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.

Radio - Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.

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SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2012 Jul 06 2304 UTC
Maximum Time: 2012 Jul 06 2306 UTC
End Time: 2012 Jul 06 2306 UTC
Duration: 2 minutes
Peak Flux: 520 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 158 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

UPDATE @ 02:44 UTC July 7, 2012

There has been some question about the discrepancy seen between the GOES 3day Xray flux and the 5min Xray flux. We have noticed that the calibration for the 3 day Xray flux is off by around a 1.0 margin and has been that way for about a week now. Any M flare that we have had this week that was around M1 range has been showing on the 3day GOES Xray flux as a high C flare. Note the M flares on here and count how many M flares you see for July 6th

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_5m.html

on the 3day it shows 5, but we have had 6

http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/p/solar-flare-updates.html

same thing for the 5th.

Any M that registered around a M1 range was shown on the 3 day Xray flux as a high C. Now this X1 occurred and it does the same and shows this X1.1 flare on the 3day as a high M. The 3 day Xray graph is around a 1.0 mark off. We have written to NOAA/SWPC about this issue.

UPDATE @ 01:08 UTC July 7, 2012

ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission

Begin Time: 2012 Jul 06 2322 UTC

Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

We now see there IS a CME associated with this X flare event. Earth is well connected with the region of 1515. This CME was not directly Earth directed as it was ejected to the south and west. but a glancing blow to Earth's magnetosphere is likely late on July 9th into the 10th

X-FLARE: Giant sunspot AR1515 unleashed a strong X1.1-class solar flare on July 6th at 2308 UT. Because Earth is well-connected to the blast site by solar magnetic fields, a fusillade of protons accelerated by the explosion might soon reach our planet.

Credit: Spaceweather

UPDATE @ 22:35 UTC July 6, 2012

D-region Absorption Map at time of X flare

At this time, the geomagnetic conditions are unsettled with a Kp 5

Issue Time: 2012 Jul 06 2246 UTC
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2012 Jul 06 2241 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine

Thank you for choosing "My Solar Alerts" for your Solar Weather updates

M6.1 Solar Flare + CME, July 5, 2012

     Once again Sunspot Region 1515 has produced a significant event, releasing a M6.1 S/F lasting in duration from 11:39 :00 untill 11:49:00 ,and  peaking at 11:44:00 UTC today July 5, 2012. Another M1.2 peaking at 13:17 swiftly followed with a large CME eruption off of the  sw limb.  Current projections do not see this CME being geoeffective.


Space Weather Message Code: ALTXMF
Serial Number: 174
Issue Time: 2012 Jul 05 1146 UTC

ALERT: X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2012 Jul 05 1145 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/drap/index.html.
Space Weather Message Code: SUMXM5
Serial Number: 93
Issue Time: 2012 Jul 05 1224 UTC

SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2012 Jul 05 1139 UTC
Maximum Time: 2012 Jul 05 1144 UTC
End Time: 2012 Jul 05 1149 UTC
X-ray Class: M6.1
Optical Class: 1b
Location: S20W32
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.
Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
Serial Number: 552
Issue Time: 2012 Jul 05 1230 UTC

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2012 Jul 05 1142 UTC
Maximum Time: 2012 Jul 05 1144 UTC
End Time: 2012 Jul 05 1145 UTC
Duration: 3 minutes
Peak Flux: 290 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 163 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

These events continue unfoldindg and we will be updating this post with new information and images as the day progresses; so continue to check back here for your latest updates.

Thank you for choosing "My Solar Alerts"  for your
Solar Weather updates.

Update @ 14:00:00 UTC

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 1958
Issue Time: 2012 Jul 05 1303 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2012 Jul 05 1302 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Jul 05 1900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

M5.6 Flare + Massive Earth Directed CME from Sunspot Region 1515 - July 2, 2012

    Sunspot region 1515 just had a M5.6 Flare peeking at 10:52 UTC this morning. Sunspot region 1515 is located in the southern region of the solar disk and is in a directly earth facing position for the next few days. There was a large CME produced in association with todays M5.6 solar flare and due to the position of 1515, his CME would be Earth directed. We have also noticed 2 other possible earth effective CME's that occured earlier in the day. We are going through more data on todays events and will report anything we find.

There remains chances for further M flares today and possibly even a X flare.



Today's M5.6 solar flare comes on the heals of a string of flares we have had over this last week. Here is a list of the most recent M flares we have had.

July 2012
M5.6 Flare on 7/02/2012 @ 10:52 UTC - Sunspot 1515
- CME produced- ETA: to be announced
M1.1 Flare on 7/02/2012 @ 00:35 UTC - Sunspot 1513
M2.8 Flare on 7/01/2012 @ 19:18 UTC - Sunspot 1513

June 2012:
M1.6 Flare on 6/30/2012 @ 18:32 UTC - Sunspot 1513
M1.0 Flare on 6/30/2012 @ 12:52 UTC - Sunspot 1513
M2.2 Flare on 6/29/2012 @ 09:20 UTC - Sunspot 1513
M2.4 Flare on 6/28/2012 @ 16:12 UTC - Sunspot 1513

The last X flare we had was in April 2012
X1.3 Flare on 3/7/2012 @ 01:14 UTC - Sunspot 1429

Continue to check back often for further updates and alerts as todays solar events unfold.
All updates will be added to the bottom of this report.

Total M flares for July 2, 2012 is 3
Read full report for all details