X5.4 Major Solar Flare from Region 1429 - March 7, 2012

   Updated 03:28 UTC March 7 2012 :

A major X5.4 solar flare has just occured at 00:24 UTC March 7, 2012 followed by a  X1.3 solar flare occurring at 01:14 UTC. 

The X5.4 & X1.3 flares came from sunspot region 1429. This event produced a R3 radio blackout.
Sunspot region 1429 is Earth directed and here was a large dence CME produced with this X class event.

The estimated arrival time of this CME is at between 05:00 and 11:00 UTC March 8th

Update March 9 2012 @ 15:49 UTC:

The CME associated with this event has arrived.

View full report here

http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/03/x54-solar-flare-cme-arrives.html

Update on the solar flares:
just issued from NOAA

2012-03-07 01:03   Strong Solar Eruption; Earth-Directed CME Likely
An R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout is now in progress, beginning about 7:00 p.m. EST today. The site of the eruption, previously active Region 1429, is now near center disk, so there's  high-potential of an earth-directed CME. In addition, expect the imminent beginning of a Solar Radiation Storm. Analysis now occurring on both fronts
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/

the Xray flux was slowly dropping after the X5.4 solar flare, it dropped to around the X1.0 level, and is right now on a slow rise back up
 http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_1m.html

currently at a X1.3
this is seen happening a lot of the time when there is a CME produced with the associated solar flare

Here we see this X flare on sdo EVE













 NOAA Alerts:
SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 07 0002 UTC
Maximum Time: 2012 Mar 07 0024 UTC
End Time: 2012 Mar 07 0040 UTC
X-ray Class: X5.4
Location: N17E29
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong
Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
Radio - Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.

WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Valid From: 2012 Mar 07 0030 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Mar 08 0000 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

ALERT: X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2012 Mar 07 0008 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/drap/index.html.

Chances for Strong Flares Increase - March 5, 2012

   Updated 19:31 UTC March 5, 2012 :

Sunspot region 1429 has just has two M flares only minutes apart. A M2.1 flare at 19:16 UTC and a M1.8 flare at 19:30 UTC.

Solar activity has picked up quite a bit since March started.
The X-rays from sunspot region 1429 have been very active today.
Flares produced today, March 5th from region 1429 :
 X1.1 C2.3, C5.8, C1.2, C5.4, C7.8, C9.8, C6.8, M2.1 and a M1.8

The background X-ray flux has not dropping below the C1 range since we had the X1.1 flare today at 04:29 UTC


- Today we have chances for M & X flares from 1429 and chances for M flares from 1428

  NOAA has this to say-
Big sunspot 1429 poses a threat for X-class solar flares
with today:
-a 60% chance for M flares
-a 15% chance for X flares
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/forecast.html

based on +/- componants within the sunspots
1429 chance for flares right now
-54% chance for M
-50% chance for X
http://spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk/monitor.html

We are also seeing a slight rise in Flare chances for southern regions 1428 in the southeastern area, and an unnamed region in the southwestern area

We will be staying on top of today's activity 
Keep checking back for updated information!

From solen:
Minor update added at 17:30 UTC: Region 11429 appears to be preparing for another major flare. The magnetic delta structure shows no signs of weakening, on the contrary, umbrae near the inversion line are bigger and more numerous.
Region 11428 is developing as well and could produce a minor M class flare:
http://www.solen.info/solar/

If regions 1429 and 1428 flare at the same time, this is increase the Xray flare level

A closer look at sunspot region 1429

A solar wind stream flowing from CH505 (minor coronal hole) could reach Earth on March 5-6. A solar wind stream flowing from CH506 (coronal hole) could reach Earth on March 8-9

  SEP flux at energies above 10 MeV started to rise since around 00:00 UT today (probably resulting from the CME associated with yesterday's M2.0 flare). Crossing the threshold of an SEP event is probable in the coming hours. Protons from both CMEs are delayed due to the eastern position of the CME source region. http://www.sidc.oma.be/index.php

NOAA Space Wather Alert :

Issue Time: 2012 Mar 05 1517 UTC

WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Valid From: 2012 Mar 05 2100 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Mar 06 2100 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies

X1.1 Solar Flare LDE - March 5, 2012

   Update 14:25 UTC March 5, 2012 :

A X1.1 long duration solar flare has occurred around sunspot region 1429 at 04:09 UTC  March 5, 2012. This LDE event is still in progress at this time.

A R3 radio blackout has occurred and there was a large CME associated with this X1.1 flare.

A portion of the CME is Earth directed.

CME arrival time: Wed. March 7, 2012 .

There is a chance of a SEP (Solar Energetic Particle), or Proton event in the coming hours.

.

Read full report for all details and images

Check back often for current updates

 Most Recent NOAA Space Weather Alert :
ALERT: X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2012 Mar 05 0345 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/drap/index.html

What is a R3 radio blackout?
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/#RadioBlackouts

Updated CME Information :

STRONG SOLAR ACTIVITY: When the CME from today's X-flare arrives, a geomagnetic storm might already be in progress. An earlier CME is en route and nearing our planet. According to analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the cloud, which was produced by an M2-class eruption from sunspot AR1429 on March 4th, could deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field on March 6th at 04:30 UT (+/- 7 hr).

 http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=05&month=03&year=2012

From NOAA:

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate.  A long duration M2/1N
flare was observed at 04/1052Z from Region 1429 (N18E55).
Associated with the event was a 750 sfu Tenflare, Type IV Radio
Sweep, and a CME first visible in STEREO B COR 2 Imagery at 04/1210Z
(estimated speed of 840 km/s).  This region is classified as a Dkc
spot group with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration.  Further
analysis of the CME will be necessary as imagery becomes available,
however there appears to be a partial Earth-directed component.  A
glancing blow is possible from this event.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/forecast.html

  SEP flux at energies above 10 MeV started to rise since around 00:00 UT today (probably resulting from the CME associated with yesterday's M2.0 flare). Crossing the threshold of an SEP event is probable in the coming hours. Protons from both CMEs are delayed due to the eastern position of the CME source region. http://www.sidc.oma.be/index.php

M2.0 LDE Flare from Sunspot 1429

   Updated 07:49 UTC March 5th, 2012 :

Today we had a long duration M2.0 Solar flare that peaked at 10:45 UTC. The source was new large active sunspot region 1429, located at the north east limb. This LDE flare lasted for around 7 hrs. Peaking at 10:45 UTC and finaly dropping to the C1 flare level at around 17:46 UTC.
This event was also associated with a 46min long Radio burst inbounded (Tenflare).

There was a CME produced with this event. Because this CME was ejected on the Eastern limb, it is likely that most of the CME is directed away from earth. However, there was a partial Earth directed portion of this wide CME.
There was also a CME was caused by a filament in the northern region that became unstable on  and was ejected from the solar surface. 

CME Update March 5, 2012:
According to analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the CME from todays event could deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field on March 6th at 04:30 UT

Event Issue Date: 2012-03-04 15:06:24.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-03-06 04:29:07.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 13 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 5.6 Re
Tue, 06 Mar 2012 04:29:07 GMT

Spaceweather.com reports on March 5th 2012
(main report is on the X1.1 solar flare that occured on Match 5th)
When the CME from today's X-flare arrives, a geomagnetic storm might already be in progress. An earlier CME is en route and nearing our planet. According to analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the cloud, which was produced by an M2-class eruption from sunspot AR1429 on March 4th, could deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field on March 6th at 04:30 UT (+/- 7 hr).
http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=05&month=03&year=2012

More updates to come on todays M2.0 solar flare + CME

Issued from the NOAA Space Weather PRediction Center:
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate.  A long duration M2/1N
flare was observed at 04/1052Z from Region 1429 (N18E55).
Associated with the event was a 750 sfu Tenflare, Type IV Radio
Sweep, and a CME first visible in STEREO B COR 2 Imagery at 04/1210Z
(estimated speed of 840 km/s).  This region is classified as a Dkc
spot group with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration.  Further
analysis of the CME will be necessary as imagery becomes available,
however there appears to be a partial Earth-directed component.  A
glancing blow is possible from this event.

What is a Tenflare?

 Tenflare: A tenflare is associated with optical and x-ray flares. Solar flares emit radiation over a very wide range of frequencies. One of the more significant frequencies observed is the 10.7 cm wavelength band (2695 MHz). When a solar flare erupts, "noise" from the flare is received over this very wide range of frequencies.

When the noise received on the 10.7 cm wavelength band surpasses 100% of the background noise level during a solar flare, a Tenflare is said to be in progress. The more intense solar flares are associated with tenflares. Almost all major flares are associated with tenflares
http://www.sci.fi/~fmbb/astro/glossar1.htm

From Spaceweather.com
BIG SUNSPOT: A sunspot almost four times as wide as Earth itself is rotating onto the solar disk.
Earth-effects could become stronger as the sunspot turns toward our planet in the days ahead. NOAA forecasters estimate a 55% chance of additional M-class flares and a 5% chance of an X-flare during the next 24 hours
http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=04&month=03&year=2012

Keep checking back in for updated information :)

   NOAA Space Weather Alert :

Issue Time: 2012 Mar 04 1230 UTC

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 04 1126 UTC
Maximum Time: 2012 Mar 04 1135 UTC
End Time: 2012 Mar 04 1212 UTC
Duration: 46 minutes
Peak Flux: 750 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

Issue Time: 2012 Mar 04 1302 UTC

ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 04 1040 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 04 1601 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 1864
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 02 1425 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 2070 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.