M1.4 Flare Around New Sunspot Region 1476 - May 5 2012

Update added @ 01:22 UTC May 5 2012:

2 more M flares

Today at 13:23 UTC a M1.4 solar flare occurred around sunspot region 1476. This new sunspot region is located on the far Northeastern limb of the solar disk and is today rotating into a more Earth directed position.  As this region rotates over the Northeast limb, we can see it has a large leading penumbra making more major flares  from 1476 possible. This will bring a rise in the quiet solar activity we have seen over the last few months. We will be keeping a close eye on the solar activity and update you all with any changes or events that occur

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Update: Region 1476 produced 2 more M flares

A M1.3 flare peaking @ 23:02 UTC May 05 and a M1.1 flare peaking at 01:18 UTC May 06 

You can view the total M & X flare Count at anytime by viewing our Solar Flare Count page HERE  

   We also have a very large Coronal Hole that is rotating the Earth facing side of the sun right now. The solar winds from this Coronal Hole are expected to arrive on or around May 9th  

CME Arrival / Geomagnetic Storm

     The CME that erupted on April 23, 2012 along with the C2.0 solar Flare from plage Region 1461 (N10W19),(link to "Earth Directed Full Halo CME" report), has arrived and is stirring up a NOAA scale G1, geomagnetic storm with solar winds near the 700km/s range. In the first image to the left we can see the drop in the electron flux as measured by the GOES satellites upon  arrival. In the second image we see the deviation in the Boulder, CO magnetometer at the onset of this CME.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 685
Issue Time: 2012 Apr 26 0245 UTC
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2012 Apr 26 0240 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Continue to check back for updates as the storm progresses.

Earth Directed Full Halo CME

On April 23, 2012 at 17:38 UTC, plage Region 1461 (N10W19), produced a C2.0 Solar Flare with an associated Earth directed Full Halo CME. Varying models place the time of arrival for this CME between April 26, at approx 14:00 UTC,  according to the NOAA/WSA-ENLIL Model( click this link to see the latest plot : NOAA/WSA-ENLIL CME Model ), to  April 27, at 05:49:22 UTC, Confidence Level: ± 6 hours, with the NASA/ISWA CCMC-ENLIL Model. (click this link to see the latest plot:ISWA/CCMC-ENLIL CME Earth Cone Model). On this animated gif (left),we can see the Full Halo CME as it spreads out around the disk in all directions; captured here by SOHO with the LC3 telescope. Although it is hard to see in this image, there is also a Sundiving Comet that can be seen taking its last trip through the solar system, as it dives into the Sun. You can see it travel from the bottom of the movie window up into the disk at the 7:00 position.  For a larger high resolution view click on the gif image.  For a current view click the "Latest Lasco C3 Movie" box, over on the right hand side of our page!

Geomagnetic Storm G2 and Mid Latitude Aurora

     A Geomagnetic Storm, NOAA Sclae G2 Moderate Kp=6,  causing a Mid Latitude Aurora, continues due to the arrival of a  CME that lifted off the solar disk on April 19th.  Solar wind velocities increased from 350 - 400 km/s. For the original post on the origins of this CME, read the original post here: CME arrival soon and sunspot update .   The CME arrived with a  Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse that was observed by NOAA at the Boulder CO magnetometer with a deviation of 31 nT at 03:23 UTC on April 23.


Space Weather Message Code: ALTK06
Serial Number: 284
Issue Time: 2012 Apr 24 0047 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2012 Apr 24 0046 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.