M1.0 Flare With GOES 15 Back Online

   GOES 15 is working again as of 16:00 UTC today. Just a few hours into the Xray monitor being back in business, we have a "registered" M1.0 flare peaking at 19:40 UTC. This solar flare came from old sunspot region 1431 as it rotates back into a earth facing direction in the far southeast limb.

2012-03-23 16:50 UTC  SWPC GOES Data Again Available- Just in: GOES 15 xray, particle and magnetometer data are now again accessible as of about 1600 UTC (noon EDT) today. Imagery should be available again at approximately 1900 UTC.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/

 

It's anyones guess on how many larger flares we have missed while the monitor was down.

Solar Activity Update - CME Impact + M1.8 Flare

   At 13:40 UTC March 15th a geomagnetic sudden impulse was detected indicating that the CME we were expecting today has arrived. This CME was produced in association with a M7.9 solar flare from Sunspot Region 1429 on March 13, 2012. Solar winds reaching as high as 770.5 km/s and a proton density as high as 4.7 p/cc have been picked up at the ACE satellite. With the high wind speed and the Bz tilted south (-) this CME impact is stiring up a G1-Kp5 geomagnetic storm at this time.

View original report here:

 http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/03/strong-m79-flare-from-region-1429-march.html

Check back often for further updates and alerts on this event.

All updates will be added to the bottom of this report.

ACE Readings @ 14:49 UTC.
Thursday March 15, 2012:
Solar Wind: 697.7 km/sec
Density: 3.5 protons/cc
Bz: -7.2
By: -3.6

Space Weather Message Code: SUMSUD
Serial Number: 149
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 15 1314 UTC

SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2012 Mar 15 1309 UTC
Deviation: 27 nT
Station: Boulder

Strong M7.9 Flare from Region 1429 - March 13, 2012

   A strong LDE Solar Flare of M7.9 peaking at 17:41 UTC has occurred around Sunspot Region 1429. There has been a slow drop in the Xray flux, indicating that there was a CME produced in association with this flare.
Update: there was a CME produced in association with this flare, see below for details.

Check back often for further updates and alerts on this event.

All updates will be added to the bottom of this report.

   Region 1429 on 60^o - 70^o longitude right now. With this CME that was produced today from 1429, this degree of longitude could cause a connection between the CME and Earth. Read all about this 60^o west longitude connection here
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2005/10jun_newstorm/

   Here was can see there was a sharp rise in the proton flux immediately following the M7.9 Flare. This is another indication of a CME produced in association with this flare event

     The UMA proton flux forecaster model shown here to the left indicates that Earth is currently magnetically connected to Sunspot Region 1429, and that a SEP event is in progress.  This system is able to predict the onset and intensity of the first hours of well connected Solar Proton (SEP) events.  This forecaster identifies if there is a magnetic connection between the associated flare and the Earth, by correlating X-ray and differential proton data at 1 AU.

CME Arrival from March 10th M8.4 Solar Flare

   The CME associated with the March 10, 2012 M8.4 solar flare has arrived. At 08:54 UTC ACE detected the shock of the incoming CME. The SWPC originally forcasted the arrival time of this CME March 12th around 1800 UTC.  At this time the CME impact is stirring up a  G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storm. Conditions are expected to continue through today as the bulk of the CME passed Earth as the bulk of the CME passes Earth.  Solar wind speeds have been recorded as high as 774.8 km/sec and Density as high as 51.9 protons/cm

View original report on the M8.4 LDE flare + CME here:

http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/03/m84-lde-solar-flare-at-sunspot-region.html

Issue Time: 2012 Mar 12 0854 UTC
WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2012 Mar 12 0915 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Mar 12 1015 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2012 Mar 12 0842 UTC

Be sure to check back often for further updates and alerts on this event.

All updates will be added to the bottom of this report.



With geomagnetic storming expected over the following hours, an aurora watch for high and mid latitudes is in effect for March 12, 2012.

Want to know if you will see the auroras where you live?

We have now added the real time image of the aurora ovation to the left hand column of our site. Clicking on the image will take you to the NOAA Aurora ovation site where you can view all aurora details

http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation/

Bookmark My Solar Alerts blog and come back at anytime to see if you will be able to view auroras in your area.

Geomagnetic Storm Levels and Effects - List

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/#GeomagneticStorms

Update 18:14 UTC March 12, 2012:

There seams to be a fair amount of confusion floating around about the last 2 CME arrivals. Are they the two we have been expecting? Why are they not arriving when forecasted to arrive? Are we still expecting the CME associated with the March 10, 2012 M8.4 flare? We have put together the following in an attempt to help make the answers to these questions a bit more clear.

We are confident that on March 11, 2012 we saw the arrival of the 1st expected CME produced on March 9, 2012 in association with the M6.3 solar flare.
We are also confidant we are now seeing the arrival of the CME produced on March 10, 2012 in association with the M8.4 solar flare.
We base this on the ejection time & ejection speed of both CME's, as well as the Goddard Space Weather Lab CME arrival forecast that is posted directly after the events.

The March 9th M6.3 Flare + CME:
-estimated ejection speed of 750 km/s
-expected arrival time for the CME is on March 11, 2012 around 06:49UTC (+ or - 7hrs.)
-time we saw arrival - March 11 2012, at 11:59 UTC
http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/03/cme-arrival-from-march-9th-m63-solar.html
(5hrs after the estimated arrival time,  there was a +/- of 7hrs on this CME arrival. This CME arrived within the expected arrival window)

-Spaceweather report on this CME arrival:
"CME IMPACT (MORE TO COME): An interplanetary shock wave buffeted Earth's magnetic field on March 11th at 11:59 UT. It was probably the first of two CMEs expected to arrive today."
http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=11&month=03&year=2012


The March 10th M8.4 Flare + CME:
-estimated ejection speed between 1200 - 1400 km/s.
-expected arrival time for the CME is on March 12, 2012 around 18:00UTC (+ or - 6hrs.)
-time we saw arrival - March 12 2012, at 08:54 UTC
http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/03/cme-arrival-from-march-10th-m83-solar.html
(9hrs before the estimated arrival time, there was a +/- of 7hrs on this CME arrival. This CME arrived 2hrs before the expected arrival window)

-Spaceweather report on this CME arrival:
"WEEKEND SOLAR FLARE: Sunspot AR1429 is still erupting this weekend. On Saturday, March 10th, it produced a powerful M8-class flare that almost crossed the threshold into X-territory."
"In addition, the explosion propelled yet another CME toward Earth. According to a forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the cloud will hit our planet's magnetosphere on March 12th at 1803 UT (+/- 7 hr), possibly sparking a new round of geomagnetic storms."
http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=11&month=03&year=2012
GEOMAGNETIC STORM UNDERWAY: A moderate G2-class geomagnetic storm is underway following the arrival of a CME on March 12th at ~0930 UT.
http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=12&month=03&year=2012

Update 18:09 UTC March 12, 2012:

Solar winds are remaining in the 700km/sec range. With the Bz remaining in the positive range this is keeping the Kp index at a Kp6 (a G2 geomagnetic storm). If the Bz turns south into a negative range with the solar winds remaining at over the 700km/sec range, a G3 storm could be produced. We will keep monitoring this situation and report any significant changes.

ACE Conditions @ 18:07 UTC
March 12, 2012
Solar Wind Speed: 774.8 km/sec
Density: 1.0 protons/cm
Bz: +3.4
By: +9.1