Strong M7.9 Flare from Region 1429 - March 13, 2012

   A strong LDE Solar Flare of M7.9 peaking at 17:41 UTC has occurred around Sunspot Region 1429. There has been a slow drop in the Xray flux, indicating that there was a CME produced in association with this flare.
Update: there was a CME produced in association with this flare, see below for details.

Check back often for further updates and alerts on this event.

All updates will be added to the bottom of this report.

   Region 1429 on 60^o - 70^o longitude right now. With this CME that was produced today from 1429, this degree of longitude could cause a connection between the CME and Earth. Read all about this 60^o west longitude connection here
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2005/10jun_newstorm/

   Here was can see there was a sharp rise in the proton flux immediately following the M7.9 Flare. This is another indication of a CME produced in association with this flare event

     The UMA proton flux forecaster model shown here to the left indicates that Earth is currently magnetically connected to Sunspot Region 1429, and that a SEP event is in progress.  This system is able to predict the onset and intensity of the first hours of well connected Solar Proton (SEP) events.  This forecaster identifies if there is a magnetic connection between the associated flare and the Earth, by correlating X-ray and differential proton data at 1 AU.

CME Arrival from March 10th M8.4 Solar Flare

   The CME associated with the March 10, 2012 M8.4 solar flare has arrived. At 08:54 UTC ACE detected the shock of the incoming CME. The SWPC originally forcasted the arrival time of this CME March 12th around 1800 UTC.  At this time the CME impact is stirring up a  G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storm. Conditions are expected to continue through today as the bulk of the CME passed Earth as the bulk of the CME passes Earth.  Solar wind speeds have been recorded as high as 774.8 km/sec and Density as high as 51.9 protons/cm

View original report on the M8.4 LDE flare + CME here:

http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/03/m84-lde-solar-flare-at-sunspot-region.html

Issue Time: 2012 Mar 12 0854 UTC
WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2012 Mar 12 0915 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Mar 12 1015 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2012 Mar 12 0842 UTC

Be sure to check back often for further updates and alerts on this event.

All updates will be added to the bottom of this report.



With geomagnetic storming expected over the following hours, an aurora watch for high and mid latitudes is in effect for March 12, 2012.

Want to know if you will see the auroras where you live?

We have now added the real time image of the aurora ovation to the left hand column of our site. Clicking on the image will take you to the NOAA Aurora ovation site where you can view all aurora details

http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation/

Bookmark My Solar Alerts blog and come back at anytime to see if you will be able to view auroras in your area.

Geomagnetic Storm Levels and Effects - List

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/#GeomagneticStorms

Update 18:14 UTC March 12, 2012:

There seams to be a fair amount of confusion floating around about the last 2 CME arrivals. Are they the two we have been expecting? Why are they not arriving when forecasted to arrive? Are we still expecting the CME associated with the March 10, 2012 M8.4 flare? We have put together the following in an attempt to help make the answers to these questions a bit more clear.

We are confident that on March 11, 2012 we saw the arrival of the 1st expected CME produced on March 9, 2012 in association with the M6.3 solar flare.
We are also confidant we are now seeing the arrival of the CME produced on March 10, 2012 in association with the M8.4 solar flare.
We base this on the ejection time & ejection speed of both CME's, as well as the Goddard Space Weather Lab CME arrival forecast that is posted directly after the events.

The March 9th M6.3 Flare + CME:
-estimated ejection speed of 750 km/s
-expected arrival time for the CME is on March 11, 2012 around 06:49UTC (+ or - 7hrs.)
-time we saw arrival - March 11 2012, at 11:59 UTC
http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/03/cme-arrival-from-march-9th-m63-solar.html
(5hrs after the estimated arrival time,  there was a +/- of 7hrs on this CME arrival. This CME arrived within the expected arrival window)

-Spaceweather report on this CME arrival:
"CME IMPACT (MORE TO COME): An interplanetary shock wave buffeted Earth's magnetic field on March 11th at 11:59 UT. It was probably the first of two CMEs expected to arrive today."
http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=11&month=03&year=2012


The March 10th M8.4 Flare + CME:
-estimated ejection speed between 1200 - 1400 km/s.
-expected arrival time for the CME is on March 12, 2012 around 18:00UTC (+ or - 6hrs.)
-time we saw arrival - March 12 2012, at 08:54 UTC
http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/03/cme-arrival-from-march-10th-m83-solar.html
(9hrs before the estimated arrival time, there was a +/- of 7hrs on this CME arrival. This CME arrived 2hrs before the expected arrival window)

-Spaceweather report on this CME arrival:
"WEEKEND SOLAR FLARE: Sunspot AR1429 is still erupting this weekend. On Saturday, March 10th, it produced a powerful M8-class flare that almost crossed the threshold into X-territory."
"In addition, the explosion propelled yet another CME toward Earth. According to a forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the cloud will hit our planet's magnetosphere on March 12th at 1803 UT (+/- 7 hr), possibly sparking a new round of geomagnetic storms."
http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=11&month=03&year=2012
GEOMAGNETIC STORM UNDERWAY: A moderate G2-class geomagnetic storm is underway following the arrival of a CME on March 12th at ~0930 UT.
http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=12&month=03&year=2012

Update 18:09 UTC March 12, 2012:

Solar winds are remaining in the 700km/sec range. With the Bz remaining in the positive range this is keeping the Kp index at a Kp6 (a G2 geomagnetic storm). If the Bz turns south into a negative range with the solar winds remaining at over the 700km/sec range, a G3 storm could be produced. We will keep monitoring this situation and report any significant changes.

ACE Conditions @ 18:07 UTC
March 12, 2012
Solar Wind Speed: 774.8 km/sec
Density: 1.0 protons/cm
Bz: +3.4
By: +9.1

CME Arrival from March 9th M6.3 Solar Flare

   We are now seeing the 1st signs of the March 9, 2012 CME show up at ACE at 11:59 UTC. Coming in a bit later than the expected time of around 06:49UTC (+ or - 6hrs.), this CME is forecasted to cause G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storming as the bulk of the CME passes Earth. 

View original report on the M6.3 flare + CME here:

http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/03/m63-flare-earth-directed-cme-march-9.html

ACE Readings @ 01:16 UTC.
Monday March 12, 2012:
Solar Wind: 463.6 km/sec
Density: 17.1 protons/cm
Bz: -0.3
By: +4.9

Be sure to check back often for further updates and alerts on this event.

All updates will be added to the bottom of this report.

Original March 11th CME Alert By NOAA
NOAA Aleart Issued for March 11, 2012:
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 09 2209 UTC
WATCH: Geomagnetic A-index of 50 or greater predicted
NOAA Scale: Periods reaching the G3 (Strong) Level Likely
Valid for UTC Day: 2012 Mar 11

Geomagnetic Storm Levels and Effects - List
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/#GeomagneticStorms

Update 00:23 UTC March 12, 2012:

Today's CME arrival turned out to be more of a glancing blow than expected. Because of this, the geomagnetic storm watch issued for today has been canceled. An aurora watch for high latitude viewers is still in effect.

Issue Time: 2012 Mar 11 1951 UTC
CANCEL WATCH: Geomagnetic A-index of 50 or greater predicted for UTC Day 2012 Mar 11
Cancel Serial Number: 44
Original Issue Time: 2012 Mar 09 2209 UTC

Comment: Conditions are not present for strong geomagnetic storming.
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

In Related Solar News:

The ongoing Proton Event that began on March 7, 2012 continues into it's 4th full day. We are currently at a S3 (Strong) Solar Radiation Storm level. This is expected to continue through the day.

Solar Radiation Storm Levels and Effects - List

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/#SolarRadiationStorms

NOAA Alerts For This Proton Storm:

Issue Time: 2012 Mar 11 0935 UTC
SUMMARY: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 07 1015 UTC
Maximum Time: 2012 Mar 08 1115 UTC
End Time: 2012 Mar 11 0650 UTC
Maximum 10MeV Flux: 6530 pfu
NOAA Scale: S3 - Strong

Issue Time: 2012 Mar 11 0632 UTC
CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 1870
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 10 0410 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 9380 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems

M8.4 LDE Solar Flare at Sunspot Region 1429 - March 10, 2012

   A strong M8.4 LDE solar flare has occurred at sunspot region 1429. The M8.4 flare peaked at 17:27 UTC and remained at that range until 17:44 UTC when we started to see a very slow drop. There was a bright CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) produced in association with this M8.4 flare.

This CME is Earth directed. According to a forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the cloud will hit our planet's magnetosphere on March 12th at 1803 UT (+/- 7 hr)


The latest updates as well as alerts and warnings will be posted directly below so be sure to check back often.

   This M8.4 LDE flare occurred just under 2 hours after we saw a C8.0 flare peaking at 15:52 UTC from sunspot region 1430. There was also a CME seen produced in association with this C8.0 flare.This makes 2 CME's that were ejected today in Earths direction. More on this to come. Check back soon

  

   The Earth directed bright CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) that was associated with today's M8.4 flare as seen today on STEREO A

Update 22:11 UTC March 10, 2012:

From SWPC:

Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z

to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was high.  Region 1430 (N21W42) produced
a C8 flare at 10/1552Z and Region 1429 (N18W26) produced a long
duration M8 flare at 10/1744Z with an associated Tenflare (459 sfu)
and a Type IV radio sweep.  Both flares had associated CMEs.  The
first CME appeared in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 10/1624Z with
the majority of the ejecta off the NW limb.  The second CME,
associated with the M8 flare, first appeared in C2 imagery at
10/1800Z.  Further analysis will be done as imagery becomes
available, however initial analysis indicated the event produced a
full-halo CME with an estimated plane-of-sky speed between 1200 -
1400 km/s.  Region 1429 remained a large Ekc spot class with a
Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic class.  A new region appeared on the ENE
limb near Region 1432 (N16E52).  Close proximity to the limb made a
detailed analysis of this new region difficult.

Update 22:11 UTC March 10, 2012:

From Spaceweather

WEEKEND SOLAR FLARE: Sunspot AR1429 is still erupting this weekend. On Saturday, March 10th, it produced a powerful M8-class flare that almost crossed the threshold into X-territory. In New Mexico, amateur radio astronomer Thomas Ashcraft recorded a series of shortwave bursts emanating from the blast site: audio. Also, the explosion propelled yet another CME toward Earth: forecast track. The cloud is expected to hit our planet's magnetosphere on March 12th around 1800 UT. A CME from an earlier explosion will arrive much sooner, however. Continue reading.....

INCOMING CME: A CME from sunspot AR1429 is nearing Earth. According to analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the cloud will arrive on March 11th at 0649 UT (+/- 7 hr). NOAA forecasters say the odds of a strong geomagnetic storm at that time is 50%

http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=10&month=03&year=2012

Update 20:02 UTC March 10, 2012:

*The M8.4 flare that started at 17:22 UTC today has now fallen to the C9 range @ 20:02 UTC, 2hrs 40min after it began.