CME Arrival from March 9th M6.3 Solar Flare

   We are now seeing the 1st signs of the March 9, 2012 CME show up at ACE at 11:59 UTC. Coming in a bit later than the expected time of around 06:49UTC (+ or - 6hrs.), this CME is forecasted to cause G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storming as the bulk of the CME passes Earth. 

View original report on the M6.3 flare + CME here:

http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/03/m63-flare-earth-directed-cme-march-9.html

ACE Readings @ 01:16 UTC.
Monday March 12, 2012:
Solar Wind: 463.6 km/sec
Density: 17.1 protons/cm
Bz: -0.3
By: +4.9

Be sure to check back often for further updates and alerts on this event.

All updates will be added to the bottom of this report.

Original March 11th CME Alert By NOAA
NOAA Aleart Issued for March 11, 2012:
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 09 2209 UTC
WATCH: Geomagnetic A-index of 50 or greater predicted
NOAA Scale: Periods reaching the G3 (Strong) Level Likely
Valid for UTC Day: 2012 Mar 11

Geomagnetic Storm Levels and Effects - List
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/#GeomagneticStorms

Update 00:23 UTC March 12, 2012:

Today's CME arrival turned out to be more of a glancing blow than expected. Because of this, the geomagnetic storm watch issued for today has been canceled. An aurora watch for high latitude viewers is still in effect.

Issue Time: 2012 Mar 11 1951 UTC
CANCEL WATCH: Geomagnetic A-index of 50 or greater predicted for UTC Day 2012 Mar 11
Cancel Serial Number: 44
Original Issue Time: 2012 Mar 09 2209 UTC

Comment: Conditions are not present for strong geomagnetic storming.
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

In Related Solar News:

The ongoing Proton Event that began on March 7, 2012 continues into it's 4th full day. We are currently at a S3 (Strong) Solar Radiation Storm level. This is expected to continue through the day.

Solar Radiation Storm Levels and Effects - List

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/#SolarRadiationStorms

NOAA Alerts For This Proton Storm:

Issue Time: 2012 Mar 11 0935 UTC
SUMMARY: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 07 1015 UTC
Maximum Time: 2012 Mar 08 1115 UTC
End Time: 2012 Mar 11 0650 UTC
Maximum 10MeV Flux: 6530 pfu
NOAA Scale: S3 - Strong

Issue Time: 2012 Mar 11 0632 UTC
CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 1870
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 10 0410 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 9380 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems

M8.4 LDE Solar Flare at Sunspot Region 1429 - March 10, 2012

   A strong M8.4 LDE solar flare has occurred at sunspot region 1429. The M8.4 flare peaked at 17:27 UTC and remained at that range until 17:44 UTC when we started to see a very slow drop. There was a bright CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) produced in association with this M8.4 flare.

This CME is Earth directed. According to a forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the cloud will hit our planet's magnetosphere on March 12th at 1803 UT (+/- 7 hr)


The latest updates as well as alerts and warnings will be posted directly below so be sure to check back often.

   This M8.4 LDE flare occurred just under 2 hours after we saw a C8.0 flare peaking at 15:52 UTC from sunspot region 1430. There was also a CME seen produced in association with this C8.0 flare.This makes 2 CME's that were ejected today in Earths direction. More on this to come. Check back soon

  

   The Earth directed bright CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) that was associated with today's M8.4 flare as seen today on STEREO A

Update 22:11 UTC March 10, 2012:

From SWPC:

Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z

to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was high.  Region 1430 (N21W42) produced
a C8 flare at 10/1552Z and Region 1429 (N18W26) produced a long
duration M8 flare at 10/1744Z with an associated Tenflare (459 sfu)
and a Type IV radio sweep.  Both flares had associated CMEs.  The
first CME appeared in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 10/1624Z with
the majority of the ejecta off the NW limb.  The second CME,
associated with the M8 flare, first appeared in C2 imagery at
10/1800Z.  Further analysis will be done as imagery becomes
available, however initial analysis indicated the event produced a
full-halo CME with an estimated plane-of-sky speed between 1200 -
1400 km/s.  Region 1429 remained a large Ekc spot class with a
Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic class.  A new region appeared on the ENE
limb near Region 1432 (N16E52).  Close proximity to the limb made a
detailed analysis of this new region difficult.

Update 22:11 UTC March 10, 2012:

From Spaceweather

WEEKEND SOLAR FLARE: Sunspot AR1429 is still erupting this weekend. On Saturday, March 10th, it produced a powerful M8-class flare that almost crossed the threshold into X-territory. In New Mexico, amateur radio astronomer Thomas Ashcraft recorded a series of shortwave bursts emanating from the blast site: audio. Also, the explosion propelled yet another CME toward Earth: forecast track. The cloud is expected to hit our planet's magnetosphere on March 12th around 1800 UT. A CME from an earlier explosion will arrive much sooner, however. Continue reading.....

INCOMING CME: A CME from sunspot AR1429 is nearing Earth. According to analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the cloud will arrive on March 11th at 0649 UT (+/- 7 hr). NOAA forecasters say the odds of a strong geomagnetic storm at that time is 50%

http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=10&month=03&year=2012

Update 20:02 UTC March 10, 2012:

*The M8.4 flare that started at 17:22 UTC today has now fallen to the C9 range @ 20:02 UTC, 2hrs 40min after it began.

M6.3 Flare + Earth Directed CME - March 9, 2012

   Sunspot Region 1429 has produced a  M6.3 solar flare at 03:22 UTC March 9, 2012. There was a Earth directed CME produced in association with this flare event. With a estimated ejection speed of  750 km/s the expected arrival time for the CME is on March 11, 2012 around 06:49UTC (+ or - 6hrs.)

We will update the details of this expected CME as more data becomes available.

Today there remains a strong chance for continued major flaring. NOAA has a 40% chance of an X-class solar flare today from sunspot region 1429.

Be sure to check back often for further updates on this event.

All updates will be added to the bottom of this report

   Here we can see the Earth directed CME as it appears on STEREO B

From NASA:
Event Issue Date: 2012-03-09 16:39:27.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-03-11 06:49:05.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 10 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 5.2 Re

   From solen:

Region 11429 [N17E03] lost penumbral area with the main penumbra fragmenting into smaller penumbrae. The region still has several magnetic delta structures and could produce further major flares. The region was the source of a long duration major M6.3 event peaking at 03:53 UTC on March 9. STEREO-B indicates that another full halo CME was produced by this event.

One magnetic delta structure was gone in region 11429 after the LDE and the center of the region is becoming quite open. Several new ARs had spots at 10:00 UTC, see the most recent high resolution CHARMAP. S1517 was located at S23E33, S1518 at S26E23 while S1519 was at N06W25. AR 11431 has developed slowly today, and there is spot development in the southern part of region 1428 as well.

http://www.solen.info/solar/

From SDIC:

Due to the position of the CME source region close to the solar central meridian, we expect a nearly central encounter of the resulting ICME, which will probably be a magnetic cloud with leading southward field. A strong geomagnetic storm (K = 7 or higher) is probable.

http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/

March 7th CME arrives after X 5.4 Solar Flare

   On March 7, 2012 Sunspot Region 1429 unleashed a X5.4 Solar Flare, Long Duration Event (LDE).  This X5.4 Solar Flare was associated with a type II and a type IV radio burst as well as a full halo, Coronal Mass Ejection (CME).  According to NASA the CME had an estimated plane of sky speed of 2200 km/s. The Interplanetary Shock of this CME arrived at the ACE spacecraft at 10:45 UTC signaling its immediate approach to Earth. 

We will be monitoring  the situation today as NOAA has forcast strong to severe geomagnetic storming while this CME interacts with Earth's magnetosphere.

The latest updates as well as alerts and warnings will be posted directly below so be sure to check back often.

                           

Updated @ 18:47 UT  - March 9, 2012

*They just took ACE out of safe mode.
Solar wind data is now coming in.

http://www2.nict.go.jp/y/y223/simulation/realtime/index.html
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/ace_rtsw_data.html

Solar winds speeds have been recorded at SOHO as high as 988.80 km/s

 *The SEP event continues into March 9, 2012. We are now into the 2nd full day of protons remaining above the event level. A S2 Solar Radiation Storm is in effect at this time

Read full report here

http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/03/solar-radiation-storm-in-progress.html

Solar Radiation Storm Levels

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/#SolarRadiationStorms

*We have posted a full report on todays M6.3 solar flare + Earth directed CME

View full report on this event here-

http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/03/m63-flare-earth-directed-cme-march-9.html

*There is a 40% chance today for further X-class solar flares from sunspot region 1429

*An aurora watch for high and mid latitudes is in effect for today, March 9, 2012