M6.3 Flare + Earth Directed CME - March 9, 2012

   Sunspot Region 1429 has produced a  M6.3 solar flare at 03:22 UTC March 9, 2012. There was a Earth directed CME produced in association with this flare event. With a estimated ejection speed of  750 km/s the expected arrival time for the CME is on March 11, 2012 around 06:49UTC (+ or - 6hrs.)

We will update the details of this expected CME as more data becomes available.

Today there remains a strong chance for continued major flaring. NOAA has a 40% chance of an X-class solar flare today from sunspot region 1429.

Be sure to check back often for further updates on this event.

All updates will be added to the bottom of this report

   Here we can see the Earth directed CME as it appears on STEREO B

From NASA:
Event Issue Date: 2012-03-09 16:39:27.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-03-11 06:49:05.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 10 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 5.2 Re

   From solen:

Region 11429 [N17E03] lost penumbral area with the main penumbra fragmenting into smaller penumbrae. The region still has several magnetic delta structures and could produce further major flares. The region was the source of a long duration major M6.3 event peaking at 03:53 UTC on March 9. STEREO-B indicates that another full halo CME was produced by this event.

One magnetic delta structure was gone in region 11429 after the LDE and the center of the region is becoming quite open. Several new ARs had spots at 10:00 UTC, see the most recent high resolution CHARMAP. S1517 was located at S23E33, S1518 at S26E23 while S1519 was at N06W25. AR 11431 has developed slowly today, and there is spot development in the southern part of region 1428 as well.

http://www.solen.info/solar/

From SDIC:

Due to the position of the CME source region close to the solar central meridian, we expect a nearly central encounter of the resulting ICME, which will probably be a magnetic cloud with leading southward field. A strong geomagnetic storm (K = 7 or higher) is probable.

http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/

March 7th CME arrives after X 5.4 Solar Flare

   On March 7, 2012 Sunspot Region 1429 unleashed a X5.4 Solar Flare, Long Duration Event (LDE).  This X5.4 Solar Flare was associated with a type II and a type IV radio burst as well as a full halo, Coronal Mass Ejection (CME).  According to NASA the CME had an estimated plane of sky speed of 2200 km/s. The Interplanetary Shock of this CME arrived at the ACE spacecraft at 10:45 UTC signaling its immediate approach to Earth. 

We will be monitoring  the situation today as NOAA has forcast strong to severe geomagnetic storming while this CME interacts with Earth's magnetosphere.

The latest updates as well as alerts and warnings will be posted directly below so be sure to check back often.

                           

Updated @ 18:47 UT  - March 9, 2012

*They just took ACE out of safe mode.
Solar wind data is now coming in.

http://www2.nict.go.jp/y/y223/simulation/realtime/index.html
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/ace_rtsw_data.html

Solar winds speeds have been recorded at SOHO as high as 988.80 km/s

 *The SEP event continues into March 9, 2012. We are now into the 2nd full day of protons remaining above the event level. A S2 Solar Radiation Storm is in effect at this time

Read full report here

http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/03/solar-radiation-storm-in-progress.html

Solar Radiation Storm Levels

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/#SolarRadiationStorms

*We have posted a full report on todays M6.3 solar flare + Earth directed CME

View full report on this event here-

http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/03/m63-flare-earth-directed-cme-march-9.html

*There is a 40% chance today for further X-class solar flares from sunspot region 1429

*An aurora watch for high and mid latitudes is in effect for today, March 9, 2012

Solar Activity Update for March 7, 2012

   A S3-Strong Solar Radiation Storm is in Progress

View report for this event here:

 http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/03/solar-radiation-storm-in-progress.html

Issue Time: 2012 Mar 07 1417 UTC

ALERT: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfuBegin Time: 2012 Mar 07 1410 UTC

NOAA Scale: S3 - Strong

Potential Impacts: Radiation - Passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights may experience increasing radiation exposures. Astronauts on EVA (extra-vehicular activity) are exposed to elevated radiation levels.

Spacecraft - Single-event upsets to satellite operations, noise in imaging systems, and slight reduction of efficiency in solar panels are likely.

Radio - Degraded or episodically blacked-out polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation.

Update 17:40 UTC March 9, 2012:
This Solar Proton Event continues into today

Issue Time: 2012 Mar 09 1740 UTC
EXTENDED WARNING: Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected
Extension to Serial Number: 57
Valid From: 2012 Mar 07 0300 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2012 Mar 10 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

   Starting at around 04:29 UTC today, We had a CME arrival. This CME was caused by a filament that became unstable on March 4th and was ejected from the solar surface. 

View report for this event here:

http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/03/m20-lde-flare-from-sunspot-1429.html

A Kp6 (moderate G2) geomagnetic storm was reached today around 08:52 UTC. This G3 storm has now subsided to the current conditions of of a G1 storm.

There was also another CME that occurred on March 4th that could have combined with the filament and arrived at the same time. We will monitor solar conditions today and report on any changes that are seen.

Issue Time: 2012 Mar 07 1454 UTC
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2012 Mar 07 1448 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1200-1500 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state

Solar Radiation Storm in Progress

    Updated @ 17:24 UT March 7, 2012

     A SEP event is underway. We have become magnetically conected to Sunspot Region 1429.  At the time of this original post the 10MeV Integral Flux has exceeded 100pfu.

 NOAA Scale: S2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Radiation - Passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights may experience small, increased radiation exposures.

Spacecraft - Infrequent single-event upsets to satellites are possible.

Radio - Small effects on polar HF (high frequency) propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.. Additional flaring from region 1429 will rapidly increase this proton flux.  When our "foot point" location, the area that we are magnetically conected to the Sun at becomes located at or very near an active region the connection allows Solar Energetic Particles such as protons and electrons to travel an extremely fast and direct path to Earth during a Solar Flare from that region. These Solar Energetic Particles travel at approximately 80% the speed of light and start bombarding the Ionosphere, within a few hours of a Solar Flare.  Additionally, during these events, CME driven shocks contribute to accelerating these particles. This Event was precipitated by the X 5.4 flare released early March 7, 2012 at  00:40 UT from Sunspot Region 1429.

    Here we can see the proximity of Earths "Foot Point" location to Sunspot Region 1429  just prior to the X 5.4 Solar Flare. Given this interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) connection between Sunspot Region 1429 and the Earth, very energetic solar protons have began saturating the Ionosphere. A more delayed effect may result with the CME that was produced with this X flare.  Since the radial propagation speed is expecded to be < 1000km/s with the arrival of the associated CME expected tomorrow March 8, the high solar wind speed accompanying the shock , plus high plasma number densities with a strong southward IMF, we can expect a sudden storm commencement or (SSC).  These geomagnetic storms generally produce large magnetic disturbances due to ring current enhancements.

Updated Proton Flux at 17:24UT March 7, 2012
Space Weather Message Code: ALTPX3
Serial Number: 25
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 07 1417 UTC

ALERT: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 07 1410 UTC
NOAA Scale: S3 - Strong
Potential Impacts: Radiation - Passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights may experience increasing radiation exposures. Astronauts on EVA (extra-vehicular activity) are exposed to elevated radiation levels.
Spacecraft - Single-event upsets to satellite operations, noise in imaging systems, and slight reduction of efficiency in solar panels are likely.
Radio - Degraded or episodically blacked-out polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/warnings_timeline.html


Update - March 9, 2012 @ 17:40 UTC

SEP event continues into March 9, 2012. We are now into the 2nd full day of protons remaining above the event level. A S2 Solar Radiation Strom is in effect at this time

Solar Radiation Storm Levels

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/#SolarRadiationStorms

Issue Time: 2012 Mar 09 1740 UTC
EXTENDED WARNING: Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expectedExtension to Serial Number: 57
Valid From: 2012 Mar 07 0300 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2012 Mar 10 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Potential Impacts: An enhancement in the energetic portion of the solar radiation spectrum may indicate increased biological risk to astronauts or passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights. Additionally, energetic particles may represent an increased risk to all satellite systems susceptible to single event effects. This information should be used in conjunction with the current Solar Radiation Storm conditions when assessing overall impact