Powerfull Jan 23rd CME Arriving Now!

    Update @ 02:33 UTC Jan 25, 2012:

"Full power to the shields, Mr. Scott!"

On Jan 23, 2012 @ 03:59 UTC there was a CME produced in association with an M8.7sloar flare from Sunspot Region 1402. Here we see this CME approaching Earth's Magnetosphere on the most recent STEREO HI2
image taken at Jan 24 01:47 UTC.  Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab estimated an ejection velocity of 2200 km/s getting this CME across 147,098,070 km in near record time,

Event Summary:
-Sudden Geomagnetic Impulse detected @ 15:04.
-Conditions are subsiding.
-A Kp4 Geomagnetic Storm Watch is in effect.
-S2 Solar Radiation Storm is ongoing.
-Strongest Proton Storm since 2003.
-Protons levels are now decreasing.
-WE have no Solar Wind or Density data from ACE due.
to sensor contamination from the ongoing proton event.
Read full report for all details.

Solen reported on Jan 23, 2012: ACE solar wind speed, density and temperature became invalid after approx. 06:30 UTC due to sensor contamination.
http://www.solen.info/solar/

We have made a new report about the ACE satellite data issue.
You can read that report here.
http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/01/ace-data-offline.html

NOAA Space Weather Alerts:
WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected.
Valid From: 2012 Jan 24 1930 UTC.
Valid To: 2012 Jan 25 0100 UTC.
Warning Condition: Onset.
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate.

Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse.
Observed: 2012 Jan 24 1504 UTC.
Deviation: 22 nT.
Station: Boulder.

EXTENDED WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected.
Valid From: 2012 Jan 23 0500 UTC.
Now Valid Until: 2012 Jan 25 0100 UTC.
Warning Condition: Persistence.
Predicted NOAA Scale: S3 - Strong.

SOHO CELIAS/MTOF Proton Monitor:
@ 22:02 UTC Jan 24 2012...
-Solar Wind Speed:  584.50 km/s.
-Density: 5.29.

Shows a spike in wind speed...
@ 14:49 UTC Jan 24, 2012
-Solar Wind Speed: 760.10 km/s
-Density: 6.09

Another LDE M Flare and 2 CME's - Jan 23 2012

Update @ 22:18 UTC Jan 23, 2012:

 

Event Summery:

-The CME's are Earth directed.

-CME speed is 2200 km/s

-Will arrive on Jan 24, 2012 - 1 day after ejection 

-There was a R2 radio Blackout with this M flare

-There was Proton event associated this this event
-Strongest Proton event since 2003
-S3 Solar Radiation Storm is now in progress

Read full report for all details!

*A strong S3 Level radiation storm is still in progress.

This is the strongest proton event since 2003!

 NOAA Correction and New Data Update:
Issued 16:30 UTC Jan 24, 2012
Here we see a plot of the Protons and it shows the secondary increase of 10 MeV protons as the CME arrived.

Earlier, it was stated that the current Solar Radiation Storm was the largest since May 2005, when the 10 MeV protons exceeded over 3000 PFU. This was not correct.
At the time of the earlier post, this current Storm was the biggest since January 2005, when the 10 MeV flux was 5040 pfu. After the arrival of the CME earlier today, the 10 MeV flux again increased and we were at around 6300 pfu. This is now the largest Solar Radiation Storm since October 2003. (The Halloween Storms)

http://www.facebook.com/pages/NOAA-NWS-Space-Weather-Prediction-Center/232532740131296 

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/

*What is a Solar Radiation Storm? What are the effects?

Read the answer here:

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/index.html#SolarRadiationStorms

D Region Absorption @ 19:10 UTC

 *EXTENDED WARNING:

Issue Time: 2012 Jan 23 1426 UTC

 Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected

Extension to Serial Number: 336

Valid From: 2012 Jan 23 0500 UTC

Now Valid Until: 2012 Jan 24 1900 UTC

Warning Condition: Persistence

Predicted NOAA Scale: S3 - Strong

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/warnings_timeline.html

Solar Storm In Effect - CME Arrived (Updated)

    Update:  Jan 22nd 23:41 UTC
  At this time we are having a G1 Geomagnetic storm.
Geomagnetic conditions are ongoing
So far, conditions peaked between 10:00-12:00 UTC today. Solar winds topped out at speeds over 450km/sec. Density reached  65.6 protons/cm3

Current Solar Conditions:
Wind Speed: 447.9 km/sec
Density: 19.8  protons/cm3
Solar Storm Level - G1 - Minor
Kp Level is now at-  Kp5

High & Mid Latitude Aurora Watch in Effect

CME IMPACT: A coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth's magnetic field at 0617 UT on Jan. 22nd. At first the impact did not appear to be a strong one: the solar wind speed barely lifted itself to ~400 km/s when the CME passed by. Now, however, in the wake of the CME, a dense and increasingly geoeffective solar wind stream is blowing around Earth, setting the stage for possible auroras on the night of Jan. 22nd
http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=22&month=01&year=2012

Latest NOAA Alert:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 673
Issue Time: 2012 Jan 22 2022 UTC
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2012 Jan 22 2021 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Read our report tracking the beginning arrival of the Jan 19th 2012 CME
http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/01/jan-19th-cme-arriving-now.html

CME and Sunspot update

   Regions 1408 and 1409 were numbered in the night, both are small and simple. The largest regions on the visible disc 1401 and 1402 both simplified during the last 24 hours. Both regions saw spot decay in the trailing part of the groups. Region 1401 decreased in size while region 1402 increased in size slightly.

Region 11401 [N17W13] lost penumbral area and gained spots in the trailing spot section while the leading penumbra split into two. If the current separation between the leading and trailing spot section increases the region could be split. M class flares are possible.

Region 11402 [N30W08] remains capable of producing further M class flares. The large penumbra has taken on a symmetrical shape

http://www.solen.info/solar/

   We had a C7 solar flare peaking at 02:57 UTC and right after that  followed by a C3 flare at 04:00 UTC, both from  region 1401. We have to remember during the declining phase of large sunspot groups, solar flares can take place as spots disappear and opposing magnetic fields collapse on to each other. A large recurrent coronal hole (CH496) in the southern hemisphere could rotate into an Earth facing position on January 24-26. (CH497) is now in  a Earth facing position.