Friday, January 20, 2012

Chance of SEP Event increasing.

 
 
    The chance of a SEP (Solar Energetic Particle),or Proton event is on the rise. A strong magnetic connection of the Earth at Sunspot Region 1402 during yesterdays LDE M3.2 flare increased the precipitation of a stream of these particles to start bombarding Earths Ionosphere several hours later.When solar protons enter the Earth's magnetosphere where the magnetic fields become stronger than the solar magnetic fields, they are guided by the Earth's magnetic field into the polar regions where the majority of the Earth's magnetic field lines enter and exit. These protons then release their energy  through the process of ionization. The Graph to the left shows the current level of the ACE Spacecraft's readings of High Energy Protons.


  The majority of the energy is extinguished in the extreme lower region of the ionosphere (around 50-80 km in altitude). This area is particularly important to radio communications because this is the area where most of the absorption of radio signals energy occurs. The enhanced ionization produced by incoming energetic protons increases the absorption levels in the lower ionosphere and can have the effect of completely blocking all ionospheric radio communications through the polar regions. Such events are known as Polar Cap Absorption events (or PCAs). These events commence and last as long as the energy of incoming protons at approximately greater than 10 MeV exceeds roughly 10 pfu. This graph shows the frequencies that are currently being affected, and where.

Solar Activity Update Jan 20, 2012

   Sunspot regions 1401 & 1402 show no signs of decay. Today both regions still hold a chance of M/X flares.
NOAA has chances for flares today as 50% chance for M flares, 05% chance for X flares.
This is a overall daily chance NOAA assigns to the earth facing side of the sun.
To see the chances within each region throughout the day, we head over to the Bardford University ASAP solar flare predictions model. This model is updated each 2min based on changes seen in the SDO HMI images. We see that at this time region 1401 poses a 52% chance for M flares and 41% chance for X flare.


   Today we are expecting a possible glancing blow from a CME that occurred on Jan 16th
View the Jan 16th report here:
http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/01/cme-with-led-flare-solar-activity.html
We will keep an eye on the nict magnetosphere simulation for signs of this CME arrival and will report on the status at that time.


   There is a rise in the Proton monitor today. This is due to the LDE/CME we saw yesterday.
Site Update: We have now added a list of expected CMEs to the right hand column of each page, labeled "CME's Expected"
We will add CMEs we are expecting in there so that we can all keep track of whats expected and when. Just click on the expected date to view the original report.

Thursday, January 19, 2012

Major Event! LDE M Flare with CME


   There is currently a M3.2 LDE Flare in progress from sunspot region 1402. This started around 13:45 utc
A large Earth directed CME was associated with this Flare.

Update: This CME has arrived. View Current updates on this CME arrival here
http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/01/solar-storm-in-effect-cme-arrived.html
 Here you can see this CME on STEREO A & B.
I will head over to SDO and take a look around there to see what kind of images i can dig up that will show us this CME.

You can see on iswa Earths proximity to region 1402 where this CME was produced
1402 is located directly above 1401, and Earth is in direct proximity to 1401
Half of the bulk from this CME is earth directed, the other half is northward directed and will not effect earth

You can see the projected CME direction here on the iswa model
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080/IswaSystemWebApp/iSWACygnetStreamer?timestamp=2038-01-23%2000:44:00&window=-1&cygnetId=261

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Increased Chances for M or X Flare

   Sunspot regions 1401 and 1402 are surprising us. Unlike many large sunspot regions before them, they are not fizzing out with flare activity as they turn into a more earth facing position.
Solar Flare Chances as of 01:12 Jan 19th 2012-

Sunspot Region 1401:
60% Chance of M Flare
63% Chance of X Flare

Sunspot Region 1402
52% Chance of M Flare
41% Chance of X Flare
Keep an eye on the Xray flux for a M or X flare
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_1m.html