Double Shot CME's Have Arrived - June 16, 2012

The CME that occurred on June 13th and the CME from June 14th have merged in space en route to Earth and we are now seeing the front of the CME's arrive at Earths magnetosphere.
The density is slowly rising over the recent hours. We believe the main mass of the CME's has not yet hit. We come to this conclusion because of the merging in space of the 2 CMEs, the 1st CME was only a glancing blow, thus the front of the impact would be to the side.
The 2nd CME was a direct shot, thus the middle part of the impact would be more of a direct hit. We should see the results of this in the coming hours. A high latitude aurora watch is in effect for the evening of June 16, 2012. Auroras possibly visible as low as Michigan,  New York, Wisconsin, Washington and Main.

Continue to check back often for further updates and alerts as the expected geomagnetic storm progresses. All updates will be added to the bottom of this report.

Updated @ 23:05 UTC June 16, 2012
Density as high as 40.3 recorded at ACE
Density as high as 112.88 recorded at SOHO

Solar Conditions @ ACE:
Solar Wind Speed: 579.70
Density: 13.53
Bz: +35.2


Solar Conditions @ SOHO:
Wind Speed: 513.4
Density: 108.1

Here we can see a rise in the protons as seen on GOES

Space Weather Alerts for June 16, 2012:

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK06
Serial Number: 285
Issue Time: 2012 Jun 16 2247 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2012 Jun 16 2245 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

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Space Weather Message Code: WARK06
Serial Number: 196
Issue Time: 2012 Jun 16 2227 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2012 Jun 16 2230 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Jun 17 0300 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

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Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 691
Issue Time: 2012 Jun 16 2150 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2012 Jun 16 2147 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

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Space Weather Message Code: SUMSUD
Serial Number: 156
Issue Time: 2012 Jun 16 2130 UTC

SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2012 Jun 16 2115 UTC
Deviation: 25 nT
Station: BOU

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Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 778
Issue Time: 2012 Jun 16 2120 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2012 Jun 16 2119 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Jun 17 0300 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

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Space Weather Message Code: SUMSUD
Serial Number: 155
Issue Time: 2012 Jun 16 2033 UTC

SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2012 Jun 16 2019 UTC
Deviation: 28 nT
Station: BOU

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Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 1590
Issue Time: 2012 Jun 16 2026 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2012 Jun 16 2022 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

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Space Weather Message Code: ALTPX1
Serial Number: 289
Issue Time: 2012 Jun 16 2011 UTC

ALERT: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Begin Time: 2012 Jun 16 1955 UTC
NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

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Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 1946
Issue Time: 2012 Jun 16 1941 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2012 Jun 16 1940 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Jun 17 0740 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

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Space Weather Message Code: WARSUD
Serial Number: 113
Issue Time: 2012 Jun 16 1938 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2012 Jun 16 2015 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Jun 16 2045 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2012 Jun 16 1931 UTC
Space Weather Message Code: WARPX1
Serial Number: 358
Issue Time: 2012 Jun 16 1716 UTC
WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Valid From: 2012 Jun 16 1715 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Jun 17 1715 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies

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Space Weather Message Code: SUMSUD
Serial Number: 154
Issue Time: 2012 Jun 16 1009 UTC
SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2012 Jun 16 0957 UTC
Deviation: 28 nT
Station: Boulder

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Space Weather Message Code: WATA20
Serial Number: 494
Issue Time: 2012 Jun 14 2105 UTC
WATCH: Geomagnetic A-index of 20 or greater predicted
NOAA Scale: Periods reaching the G1 (Minor) Level Likely
Valid for UTC Day: 2012 Jun 17
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine