Wednesday, May 9, 2012

M4.7 & M1.8 Solar Flare from Monster Sunspot 1476 - May 9, 2012

 Updated @ 21:10 UTC May 9, 2012:

   Monster sunspot 1476 has produced a M4.7 solar flare today peaking @ 12:32 UTC and a M1.8 flare peaking @  14:08 UTC May 9.
For Today SWPC has given sunspot 1476 a 65% chance of producing a M flare and a 10% chance for producing a X flare.

Check back often for further updates and alerts as today's events develop.
All updates will be added to the bottom of this report

Region 11476 [N10E33] has developed slowly with a strong magnetic delta structure forming in the southern part of the huge leading penumbra. Another strong delta with nearly no distance between opposite polarity umbrae is in a penumbra in the northern central part of the region. A major flare will become likely if the current development continues.
credit solen

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (09 May).  Day two (10
May) is expected to be at quiet to active levels with a chance for
minor storm periods due to the effects of the Coronal Hole High
Speed Stream (CH HSS) and the anticipated arrival of the CME that
departed the solar disk on 07 May.  Day three (11 May) is expected
to return to quiet to unsettled levels as the effects of the CH HSS
begin to wane.
credit SWPC

Updated @ 21:10 UTC May 9, 2012:

1476 has produced another M Flare. A M4.1 solar flare peaking at 21:05 UTC May 9th.
Looking at the current SDO magnetogram images there is some movement seen within the middle of 1476. This could lead to more moderate to major flares in the coming hours. stay tuned. 

Monday, May 7, 2012

LDE M1.9 Flare From Sunspots 1470 & 1471 Combo

   We just had a LDE (long duration event) M1.9 Solar Flare peaking @ 14:31 UTC Monday May 7. This LDE flare was a result of a two punch combo from sunspots 1470 & 1471 located on the southwest area of the solar disk. CME's are often the result of a LDE event and so will be watching for signs of a CME produced in association with this event.

Check back soon for updates as more data becomes available.

Sunday, May 6, 2012

A Closer Look At Sunspot 1476

   Sunspot 1476 has now rotated into view so that were able to get a better look at how complex this new sunspot region is, so we thought now would be a good time to take a closer look. 1476 is a Beta-Gama-Delta sunspot structure that is capable of producing major flares and has a FKC classification.
F: An elongated bipolar sunspot group with penumbra on both ends. Longitudinal extent of penumbra exceeds 15 deg.
K: large, assymetric. Same structure as type 'a', but north-south diameter of penumbra is more than 2.5 degrees. Area, therefore, must be larger or equal than 250 millionths solar hemisphere.
C: compact. The area between the leading and the following ends of the spot group is populated with many strong spots, with at least one interior spot possessing mature peanumbra. The extreme case of
compact distribution has the entire spot group enveloped in one continuous prenumbral area.
Click here to view source

The crew here at My Solar Alerts will be keeping a close eye on sunspot 1476 and will be reporting on any major events this new complex sunspot produces. Stay tuned :)

On a side note, SOHO LASCO C2 and C3 are not updating and we have the answer as to why.

From ESA/SOHO: SOHO went into Emergency Sun Reacquisition (ESR) mode last night (ESR-27). The cause was the same as for ESA-26 in August 2010: false trigger of the Coarse Sun Pointing Attitude Anomaly Detector (CSPAAD). SOHO is now back in Coarse Roll Pointing mode (CRP) and will stay there over the weekend. Early next week we will roll the spacecraft back to normal roll attitude.

Saturday, May 5, 2012

M1.4 Flare Around New Sunspot Region 1476 - May 5 2012

Update added @ 01:22 UTC May 5 2012:
2 more M flares

Today at 13:23 UTC a M1.4 solar flare occurred around sunspot region 1476. This new sunspot region is located on the far Northeastern limb of the solar disk and is today rotating into a more Earth directed position.  As this region rotates over the Northeast limb, we can see it has a large leading penumbra making more major flares  from 1476 possible. This will bring a rise in the quiet solar activity we have seen over the last few months. We will be keeping a close eye on the solar activity and update you all with any changes or events that occur

Update: Region 1476 produced 2 more M flares
A M1.3 flare peaking @ 23:02 UTC May 05 and a M1.1 flare peaking at 01:18 UTC May 06 
You can view the total M & X flare Count at anytime by viewing our Solar Flare Count page HERE  

   We also have a very large Coronal Hole that is rotating the Earth facing side of the sun right now. The solar winds from this Coronal Hole are expected to arrive on or around May 9th