We just had a X1.8 Solar Flare from sunspot region 1598 peaking at 03:17 UTC Oct 23, 2012
It would appear that sunspot region 1598 might not fizzle out as it turns into a more Earth facing position as most sunspots have done in the past months. Lets hang in there to see if sunspot 1598 has more in the offering in the days to come
Still three regions visible.
Largest region so far: 1575 which is a EHO Beta-Gamma type group at 260
millionths in size, which is slightly down from the previous day.
Region
1577 increased from 20 to 100 millionths and is a DAI Beta type group.
Happy autumnal equinox today for northern hemisphere residents
(vernal for those in the southern)
occurs @ 10:49AM EDT/14:49UT
At 14:49 UTC, 2012 is the earliest the September Equinox has occurred since 1896, but will be beaten by 28 minutes in 2016!
Region 1573 reappeared yesterday after two days without visible spots
All groups decreased in size yesterday. The largest region is still region 1575 and is still a EKO Beta type group.
No C class solar flares took place yesterday. The largest solar flare was a B8 peaking at 1221z from region 1573. Only occasional C class solar flares are expected today
Starting today at around 13:15 UTC a LDE (long duration event) solar flare began around sunspot 1520. This event is still in progress at this time with it reaching a M1.7 level thus far
There was a large bright CME seen in association with this LDE Flare
It is unsure at this time if this CME will be geoeffective or not
Here comes the CME! OK OK we have something here everyone. After waiting all night, the 1st signs of the much anticipated CME from July 12, 2012 X flare are now showing up on ACE. A mid latitude aurora watch is in effect
SWPC Alert:
Issue Time: 2012 Jul 14 1736 UTC
WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2012 Jul 14 1800
UTC
Valid To: 2012 Jul 14 1830 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2012 Jul 14
1728 UTC
Solar winds and density @ ACE just jumped by over 200Km/sec and density is increasing
Solar conditions at ACE went from....
ACE Solar Conditions @ 16:59 UTC-
July 14, 2012
Solar Wind Speed : 384.1
Density: 4.9
Bz: -5.0
to what it is right now...
ACE Solar Conditions @ 17:33 UTC-
July 14, 2012
Solar Wind Speed : 518.7
Density: 5.7
Bz: -15.2
The front of the CME has arrived at Boulder
Be on the lookout for Auroras at high latitudes
Issue Time: 2012
Jul 14 1817 UTC
SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2012 Jul 14 1811
UTC
Deviation: 27 nT
Station: Boulder
Continue to check back often for further updates and alerts as today's
solar events unfold. All updates will be added to the bottom of this
report
Ace Solar Conditions @ 09:22 UTC-
July 15, 2012
Solar Wind Speed : 578.7 Km/s
Density 1.1
Bz -16.0
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK06
Serial Number: 287
Issue Time: 2012
Jul 15 0754 UTC
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached:
2012 Jul 15 0748 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0600-0900 UTC
Active Warning:
Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily
poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid
fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage
alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur;
increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high
frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora
may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.
UPDATE @ 02:41 UTC July 15, 2012
ACE Solar Conditions @ 05:29 UTC-
July 15, 2012
Solar Wind Speed : 605.7 Km/sec
Density: 29.8.3
Bz: -4.0
UPDATE @ 02:41 UTC July 15, 2012
Solar wind speed, density and the Bz have been fluctuating up and down since this CME arrived earlier today. Right now, we see another rise in wind speed and density and the Bz just dipped south.
ACE Solar Conditions @ 02:31 UTC-
July 15, 2012
Solar Wind Speed : 660.6 Km/sec
Density: 12.0
Bz: -9.6
Everyone please keep in mind that this CME has only arrived at 17:28 UTC July 14
That was around 9hrs ago. This CME is forecasted to remain geoeffective for around 30hrs
We still have many hours left before this CME has completely passed by Earth.
We will keep watch for any significant changes and report accordingly as to any changes :)
Added ACE data update:
Solar wind speed just jumped to 759.1 Km/sec
ACE Solar Conditions @ 03:13 UTC-
July 15, 2012
Solar Wind Speed : 759.1 Km/sec
Density: 13.3
Bz: +5.6
We have a LDE (long duration event) X flare in progress. Starting at a C4.7 @ 16:11 UTC, The X ray flux peaked at a X1.4 @ 16:52 UTC. .This LDE X flare is from Sunspot 1520. Sunspot region 1520 is directly Earth facing today.
X1.4 Flare on 7/12/2012 @ 16:52 UTC - Sunspot 1520
- LDE lasting 5hrs
- CME produced- Earth Directed -
- ETA: We calculated the time of arrival around 06:00 UTC July 14th
+/- 4hrs
Continue to check back often for further updates and alerts as today's
solar events unfold. All updates will be added to the bottom of this
report
Update @ 22:16 UTC July 12, 2012
After review of today's CME on STEREO A and STEREO B, we set the calculated time of arrival around 06:00 UTC July 14th (+/- 4hrs.)
Moderate to severe geomagnetic storm activity reaching G2-G4 (Kp 6-8) will be possible at that time. We will continue to review data and will report on any changes we may find.
## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Center ( SWC ) ## Message Type: Space Weather Alert##
## Message Issue Date: 2012-07-12T19:37:00Z
## Message ID: 20120712-AL-005
## Alert Summary:
Type O CME detected by STEREO-B COR2.
Start time of the event: 2012-07-12T16:54Z (STEREO-B-COR2).
Based on rough estimates (only STEREO-B-COR2 images are available currently) the CME parameters are:
Estimated speed: ~1400 km/s.
Estimated opening half-angle: ~ 70 deg.
Direction (lon./lat.): -6/-17 in Heliocentric Earth Ecliptic coordinates.
The CME is associated with the X1.4 flare peaked at 2012-07-12T16:52Z (see alert 20120712-AL-001).
All spacecraft between the source region (AR 1520 - S15W01) and Earth (including MEO, GEO and other high-altitude orbits and high-inclination LEO) can be impacted. Updates on this event will be provided when available
* As a result of todays X flare and associated CME there is a S1 solar radiation storm in progress
Issue Time: 2012 Jul 12 1851 UTC
ALERT: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Begin Time: 2012
Jul 12 1835 UTC
NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor
impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at
lower frequencies.
2012-07-12 19:31 UTC Solar Eruption Today -- Further Analysis
The R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout today at 12:49 EDT (1649
UTC) was accompanied by an earth-directed CME. Hampered by limited observations
of the event, SWPC forecasters are now anticipating the passage of the CME
around 1:00 a.m. EDT, Saturday, July 14. G1 (minor) Geomagnetic Storm activity
is expected to then ensue through the rest of the day. An S1 (minor) Solar
Radiation Storm is now occurring, also a consequence of the flare/CME. The
parent active region, NOAA 1520, appears to have retained its ability to erupt,
so watch for more
Expected CME Update:
this is my unofficial view
this because we have had so much activity with flares and CMEs that we would have to factor in Quantum entanglement.
We have talked about this in extent in the past here.
It is not just about the earth direction and size of a given CME, But there is a LOT of physics that plays into all this as well! Because of this, i do not have enough time to research into all the data and calculations before the arrival of the following CMEs.
So here we go :)
Also lets note that there was a lot of CMEs between July 4th and today, July 7th, that could have been caught up at least partially in a magnetic connection between earth and the sun. thus we could see some mass from these CMEs being caught up with the earth directed CME's and giving a combined hit. i would say we can expect at lease a Kp5 storm starting later tonight, that has the potential of reaching as high as a Kp7 at times, with the geomagnetic conditions being unsettled to Storm conditions over the period of the next 60hrs
With the ionospheric conditions being what they have been from the rash of M flares we have had over a 7 day period (33 M flares and 1 X flare as of the time of this post) combined with the heat wave we have had in North America this past week, i would caution as to the possibility of strong, strange storms for the period that the CMEs are expected to hit/arrive.
Again, this is my unofficial view. I make this blog post only as a informational post of my view with the limited data i have been able to review due to time limitations.
- Ninzrez
We currently have a S1 solar radiation storm in effect that was brought upon by the X1.1 Solar flare and associated CME that occurred earlier today. A greater than 10 MeV Proton event
associated with yesterdays X-class event began at 04:00UTC and peaked at 25 pfu. The proton levels are now subsiding but the S1 storm remains in effect as of 22:19 UTC July 7, 2012.
Global D Region Map as seen on July 8, 2012 @ 04:25
Conditions in the D-Region of the Ionosphere have a dramatic effect on High Frequency (HF) communications and Low Frequency (LF) navigation systems like Loran. The global D-Region Absorption Product depicts the D-region at high latitudes where it is driven by particles as well as low latitudes, where photons cause the prompt changes. This product merges all latitudes using appropriate displays, and is useful to customers such as commercial aviation and maritime users.
SWPC Alert:
Issue Time: 2012 Jul 07 0428 UTC ALERT: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Begin Time: 2012
Jul 07 0400 UTC
NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor
impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at
lower frequencies.
A X1.1 solar flare has occurred peaking at 23:08 UTC Friday July 6, 2012. Today's X flare comes from large sunspot region 1515.
Continue to check back often for further updates and alerts as todays
solar events unfold. All updates will be added to the
bottom of this report
SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2012 Jul 06 2301
UTC
Maximum Time: 2012 Jul 06 2308 UTC
End Time: 2012 Jul 06 2314
UTC
X-ray Class: X1.1
Location: S18W50
NOAA Scale: R3 -
Strong
Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the
sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
Radio - Wide area
blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.
---------------------------------------------------------------------- SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2012 Jul 06 2304 UTC
Maximum
Time: 2012 Jul 06 2306 UTC
End Time: 2012 Jul 06 2306 UTC
Duration: 2
minutes
Peak Flux: 520 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 158
sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst
associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than
the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio
noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but
can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and
satellite communications.
UPDATE @ 02:44 UTC July 7, 2012
There has been some question about the discrepancy seen between the GOES 3day Xray flux and the 5min Xray flux. We have noticed that the calibration for the 3 day Xray flux is off by around a 1.0 margin and has been that way for about a week now. Any M flare that we have had this week that was around M1 range has been showing on the 3day GOES Xray flux as a high C flare. Note the M flares on here and count how many M flares you see for July 6th
Any M that registered around a M1 range was shown on the 3 day Xray flux as a high C. Now this X1 occurred and it does the same and shows this X1.1 flare on the 3day as a high M. The 3 day Xray graph is around a 1.0 mark off. We have written to NOAA/SWPC about this issue.
UPDATE @ 01:08 UTC July 7, 2012
ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2012 Jul 06 2322
UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions
on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and
solar radiation storms.
We now see there IS a CME associated with this X flare event. Earth is well connected with the region of 1515. This CME was not directly Earth directed as it was ejected to the south and west. but a glancing blow to Earth's magnetosphere is likely late on July 9th into the 10th
X-FLARE: Giant sunspot AR1515 unleashed a strong X1.1-class solar flare on July 6th at 2308 UT. Because Earth is well-connected to the blast site by solar magnetic fields, a fusillade of protons accelerated by the explosion might soon reach our planet.
At this time, the geomagnetic conditions are unsettled with a Kp 5
Issue Time: 2012
Jul 06 2246 UTC ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2012 Jul 06 2241
UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 -
Minor
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees
Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can
occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora
- Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such
as northern Michigan and Maine
Thank you for choosing "My Solar Alerts" for your Solar Weather updates
Once again Sunspot Region 1515 has produced a significant event, releasing a M6.1 S/F lasting in duration from 11:39 :00 untill 11:49:00 ,and peaking at 11:44:00 UTC today July 5, 2012. Another M1.2 peaking at 13:17 swiftly followed with a large CME eruption off of the sw limb. Current projections do not see this CME being geoeffective.
Space Weather Message Code: ALTXMF
Serial Number: 174
Issue Time: 2012
Jul 05 1146 UTC
ALERT: X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2012
Jul 05 1145 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of
impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of
blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray
Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration
please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/drap/index.html.
Space Weather Message Code: SUMXM5
Serial Number: 93
Issue Time: 2012
Jul 05 1224 UTC
SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2012 Jul
05 1139 UTC
Maximum Time: 2012 Jul 05 1144 UTC
End Time: 2012 Jul 05 1149
UTC
X-ray Class: M6.1
Optical Class: 1b
Location: S20W32
NOAA Scale:
R2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on
sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF
(high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.
Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
Serial Number: 552
Issue Time: 2012
Jul 05 1230 UTC
SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2012 Jul 05 1142
UTC
Maximum Time: 2012 Jul 05 1144 UTC
End Time: 2012 Jul 05 1145
UTC
Duration: 3 minutes
Peak Flux: 290 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux:
163 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic
burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater
than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant
radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally
short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar,
GPS, and satellite communications.
These events continue unfoldindg and we will be updating this post with new information and images as the day progresses; so continue to check back here for your latest updates.
Thank you for choosing "My Solar Alerts" for your
Solar Weather updates.
Update @ 14:00:00 UTC
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 1958
Issue Time: 2012
Jul 05 1303 UTC
WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From:
2012 Jul 05 1302 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Jul 05 1900 UTC
Warning Condition:
Onset
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees
Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can
occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and
Alaska.
Sunspot region 1515 just had a M5.6 Flare peeking at 10:52 UTC this morning. Sunspot region 1515 is located in the southern region of the solar disk and is in a directly earth facing position for the next few days. There was a large CME produced in association with todays M5.6 solar flare and due to the position of 1515, his CME would be Earth directed. We have also noticed 2 other possible earth effective CME's that occured earlier in the day. We are going through more data on todays events and will report anything we find.
There remains chances for further M flares today and possibly even a X flare.
Today's M5.6 solar flare comes on the heals of a string of flares we have had over this last week. Here is a list of the most recent M flares we have had.
July 2012
M5.6 Flare on 7/02/2012 @ 10:52 UTC - Sunspot 1515
- CME produced- ETA: to be announced
M1.1 Flare on 7/02/2012 @ 00:35 UTC - Sunspot 1513
M2.8 Flare on 7/01/2012 @ 19:18 UTC - Sunspot 1513
June 2012:
M1.6 Flare on 6/30/2012 @ 18:32 UTC - Sunspot 1513
M1.0 Flare on 6/30/2012 @ 12:52 UTC - Sunspot 1513
M2.2 Flare on 6/29/2012 @ 09:20 UTC - Sunspot 1513
M2.4 Flare on 6/28/2012 @ 16:12 UTC - Sunspot 1513
The last X flare we had was in April 2012 X1.3 Flare on 3/7/2012 @ 01:14 UTC - Sunspot 1429
Continue to check back often for further updates and alerts as todays solar events unfold. All updates will be
added to the bottom of this report.
Total M flares for July 2, 2012 is 3
Read full report for all details
A M2.4 Solar Flare has occured peeking @ 16:12. This M2 flare was originated around sunspot region 1513 located in the northeastern area of the solar disk.
A strong chance for further M flares today is in effect, with a small chance for a X flare.
The CME that occurred on June 13th and the CME from June 14th have merged in space en route to Earth and we are now seeing the front of the CME's arrive at Earths magnetosphere.
The density is slowly rising over the recent hours. We believe the main mass of the CME's has not yet hit. We come to this conclusion because of the merging in space of the 2 CMEs, the 1st CME was only a glancing blow, thus the front of the impact would be to the side.
The 2nd CME was a direct shot, thus the middle part of the impact would be more of a direct hit. We should see the results of this in the coming hours. A high latitude aurora watch is in effect for the evening of June 16, 2012. Auroras possibly visible as low as Michigan, New York, Wisconsin, Washington and Main.
Continue to check back often for further updates
and alerts as the expected geomagnetic storm progresses. All updates will be added to the bottom
of this report.
Updated @ 23:05 UTC June 16, 2012
Density as high as 40.3 recorded at ACE
Density as high as 112.88 recorded at SOHO
Solar Conditions @ ACE:
Solar Wind Speed: 579.70
Density: 13.53
Bz: +35.2
Solar Conditions @ SOHO:
Wind Speed: 513.4
Density: 108.1
We currently have a M1.9 LDE (long duration event) solar flare in progress. This flare came from sunspot region 1504 and peaked at a M1.9 at 14:30 UTC Thursday June 14, 2012. LED flares commonly occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections. Looking at the current STEREO A images, we can see there was indeed a CME produced in association with today's M1.9 LDE flare (images added below). Sunspot region 1504 is in a direct Earth facing position and because of this, the CME we see associated with this event is most likely Earth directed. There are currently no SWPC alerts or warnings issued for this event.
Today's M flare comes on the heals of a LDE M flare & Earth directed CME we saw yesterday June 13, 2012. This makes for 2 LDE M flares and 2 Earth directed CME's in around a 24hr period. We will add a update with the ETA of the CME from June 13th as well as the CME from today, June 14th.
This LDE flare vent is still in progress.
Check back often for updates.
All updates will be added below.
CME as seen on STEREO A @ 15:24 UTC
Here we can see the CME produced with today's M1.9 LDE Solar Flare. Earth is located to the left hand side.
ANOTHER CME: On June 14th, for the second day in a row, sunspot AR1504 erupted and hurled a CME toward Earth. The fast-moving (1360 km/s) cloud is expected to hit our planet's magnetic field on June 16th at 14:00 UT, possibly sparking a geomagnetic storm. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.
June 13, 2012 at 13:10 UTC Earth facing sunspot region 1504 produced a M1.2 LDE (long duration event) solar flare lasting for around 2hrs. Region 1504 is located in the southern hemisphere of the solar disk and has rotated into a direct Earth facing position. Because of the location of suns 1504, any CME produced by this region would be Earth directed. By looking at STEREO A and B, we can now see that there was a CME (coronal mass ejection) produced in association with today's M1.2 flare.
Check back often for updates for this event.
All updated info will be added below.
Here we can see the size and direction of today's CME as seen on STEREO A. Remember, with STEREO A, Earth is located to the left hand side.
Sunspot Region 1494 produced an M2.1 s/f peaking at 20:06 UTC on June 6, 2012. The SDO, Stereo, and SOHO spacecraft confirm a CME associated with this flare. Although a large portion of the ejecta from this CME was propelled south of the ecliptic, at this time it appears this CME will have a geomagnetic effect on Earth as it passes in 2-3 days.
Type II (est. speed 1148 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps were also emitted with this flare.
In this image of the X-Flux we can see the M2.1 flare as it was recorded by the GOES Satellites.
In this STEREO Ahead C 2 image we clearly see the CME as it is ejected away from the solar disk. Notice that a large portion of the material is ejected south of the ecliptic away from Earth, but a clearly defined amount of material is also ejected in a full sweep.
In the video below created from SDO Composits of AIA 131, 211, and 335, you can watch this spectacular event unfold as Region 1494 (located south of the ecliptic just right to the center of the disk), unleashes this flare and CME in an Earthward direction.
This is the last time we will view a transit of Venus across the solar disk in any of our lifetimes. The next transit of Venus will not happen again untill December 11, 2117. The nearly 7 hour event can be seen in it's entierty from the western pacific, eastern Asia and eastern Austrailia. Other parts of the globe will be able to view part of the transit. You can view the transit live as NASA EDGE is brodcastsing the event here live Venus transit . The NASA EDGE team and the Sun-Earth Day team are broadcasting this last of a lifetime event live from the top of Mount Mauna Kea, Hawaii, through their partnership with the University of Hawaii Institute for Astronomy.
To the left of this post are images from SDO in varying wavelengths, as Venus began transiting across the solar disk today.
Below you can view a time-lapse video from SDO of Venus transiting the Sun today as well.
On May 26, 2012 at approximately 20:47 UTC, a large backside solar eruption occured off of the far west limb of the solar disk producing a backside asymetrical halo CME observed by SOHO LASCO C/2 and C/3.This CME is not expected to be geoeffective. Along with this eruption, Type II, and Type IV radio emmissions were observed. This event began a 10 MeV proton event (NOAA Scale S1), Solar Radiation Storm, that onset May 27 05:05 UTC, with potential impacts being "Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies".
This Event was followed by a LDE (Long Duration Event), C 3.1 flare from Region 1492, lasting from 04:35 untill 07:00 UTC May 27, 2012. This LDE further elevated the proton count ending with a 10 MeV proton event that peaked at 2012 May 27 10:45 UTC, End Time: 2012 May 27 1235 UTC, Maximum 10MeV Flux: 14 pfu. Along with this LDE C class flare there was a CME eruption observed from SOHO Lasco C/2 and C/3. Although not highly Earth directed, CMEs produced from this region of the solar surface generally provide Earth with a "glancing blow", so we expect to see an uptic in geomanetic activity with its arrival May 29th - 30th.
At 01:25 UTC Thursday, May 17 there was a significant rise in the GOES Xray flux. The rise quickly reached the M4.6 range @ 01:42 UTC coming from around sunspot region 1476. That is where the data stuck at and stopped updating. At this time, 02:17 UTC, the Xray fluc appears to still be stuck at the M4.6 range and data is still not updating. Looking at solar images for the time of the M4.6 occurred @ 01:42, and comparing the images to after the moment the Xray flux froze, it would appear that there may have been a X flare. We are still going over image data and searching for any info on why GOES stuck and stopped updating. we will post any and all info we find. Stay tuned for updates to follow.
Here we can see where the GOES Xray flux stuck and stopped updating.
GOES came back online showing data that would show we had a M5.1 solar flare peaking @ 01:47 UTC. According to the GOES data, the flare peaked 1 min after the GOES Xray flux went offline. Though we can clearly see the flare become much brighter for up to a half hour after the flare began, and even after the GOES data stopped updating. More images to come. hold tight
Sunspot 1476 has not lost any steam as it turns into a direct Earth facing position. On May 11th at 04:18 UTC 1476 produced a M5.7 flare, that was closely followed by a C7.9 flare @ 05:10 and a C8.3 flare @ 05:22 UTC. It would appear that there was a CME produced in association with this M5.7 flare. The CME had a eastward direction of ejection. Because of this, more data is needed to know if this will be geoeffective or not.
Major flares are possible from 1476.
While these flares are going on, the solar winds hitting earth aer at 642km/sec, density is broken because it's saying density is at 0.1 (hahaha NOT), Bz is right now at 4.0+
geomagnetic conditions are: Unsettled.
Stay tuned to My Solar Alerts for all updates.
Researchers at NASA’s Solar Dynamics Laboratory called this new region a “monster sunspot.” This region, labeled AR 1476, is gigantic in terms of sunspot regions: It measures about 60,000 miles across.
Since the sun takes 26 days to make one full revolution at the equator, the monster sunspot region will continue to be a threat to Earth for at least the next 13 days. Credit: CNN Blog
Updated @ 20:48 UTC May 10, 2012
Sunspot 1476 has produced a M1.7 flare peaking @ 20:26 UTC. As 1476 is now in a direct earth facing position, we will continue to monitor for and report on any CME's.
SOLAR ACTIVITY INTENSIFIES: Huge sunspot AR1476 is crackling with M-class solar flares and appears to be on the verge of producing something even stronger. The sunspot's 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field harbors energy for X-class flares, the most powerful kind. Earth is entering the line of fire as the sunspot rotates across the face of the sun. Credit: Spaceweather
Monster sunspot 1476 has produced a M4.7 solar flare today peaking @ 12:32 UTC and a M1.8 flare peaking @ 14:08 UTC May 9.
For Today SWPC has given sunspot 1476 a 65% chance of producing a M flare and a 10% chance for producing a X flare.
Check back often for further updates
and alerts as today's events develop.
All updates will be added to the bottom
of this report
Region 11476 [N10E33] has developed slowly with a strong magnetic delta structure forming in the southern part of the huge leading penumbra. Another strong delta with nearly no distance between opposite polarity umbrae is in a penumbra in the northern central part of the region. A major flare will become likely if the current development continues. credit solen
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (09 May). Day two (10
May) is expected to be at quiet to active levels with a chance for
minor storm periods due to the effects of the Coronal Hole High
Speed Stream (CH HSS) and the anticipated arrival of the CME that
departed the solar disk on 07 May. Day three (11 May) is expected
to return to quiet to unsettled levels as the effects of the CH HSS
begin to wane. credit SWPC
Updated @ 21:10 UTC May 9, 2012:
1476 has produced another M Flare. A M4.1 solar flare peaking at 21:05 UTC May 9th. Looking at the current SDO magnetogram images there is some movement seen within the middle of 1476. This could lead to more moderate to major flares in the coming hours. stay tuned.
We just had a LDE (long duration event) M1.9 Solar Flare peaking @ 14:31 UTC Monday May 7. This LDE flare was a result of a two punch combo from sunspots 1470 & 1471 located on the southwest area of the solar disk. CME's are often the result of a LDE event and so will be watching for signs of a CME produced in association with this event.
Check back soon for updates as more data becomes available.
Sunspot 1476 has now rotated into view so that were able to get a better look at how complex this new sunspot region is, so we thought now would be a good time to take a closer look. 1476 is a Beta-Gama-Delta sunspot structure that is capable of producing major flares and has a FKC classification.
F: An elongated bipolar sunspot group with penumbra on both ends. Longitudinal extent of penumbra exceeds 15 deg.
K: large, assymetric. Same structure as type 'a', but north-south diameter of penumbra is more than 2.5 degrees. Area, therefore, must be larger or equal than 250 millionths solar hemisphere.
C: compact. The area between the leading and the following ends of the spot group is populated with many strong spots, with at least one interior spot possessing mature peanumbra. The extreme case of
compact distribution has the entire spot group enveloped in one continuous prenumbral area. Click here to view source
The crew here at My Solar Alerts will be keeping a close eye on sunspot 1476 and will be reporting on any major events this new complex sunspot produces. Stay tuned :)
On a side note, SOHO LASCO C2 and C3 are not updating and we have the answer as to why.
From ESA/SOHO: SOHO went into Emergency Sun Reacquisition (ESR) mode last night (ESR-27). The cause was the same as for ESA-26 in August 2010: false trigger of the Coarse Sun Pointing Attitude Anomaly Detector (CSPAAD). SOHO is now back in Coarse Roll Pointing mode (CRP) and will stay there over the weekend. Early next week we will roll the spacecraft back to normal roll attitude.
Today at 13:23 UTC a M1.4 solar flare occurred around sunspot region 1476. This new sunspot region is located on the far Northeastern limb of the solar disk and is today rotating into a more Earth directed position. As this region rotates over the Northeast limb, we can see it has a large leading penumbra making more major flares from 1476 possible. This will bring a rise in the quiet solar activity we have seen over the last few months. We will be keeping a close eye on the solar activity and update you all with any changes or events that occur
.
Update: Region 1476 produced 2 more M flares
A M1.3 flare peaking @ 23:02 UTC May 05 and a M1.1 flare peaking at 01:18 UTC May 06
You can view the total M & X flare Count at anytime by viewing our Solar Flare Count page HERE
We also have a very large Coronal Hole that is rotating the Earth facing side of the sun right now. The solar winds from this Coronal Hole are expected to arrive on or around May 9th
The CME that erupted on April 23, 2012 along with the C2.0 solar Flare from plage Region 1461 (N10W19),(link to "Earth Directed Full Halo CME" report), has arrived and is stirring up a NOAA scale G1, geomagnetic storm with solar winds near the 700km/s range. In the first image to the left we can see the drop in the electron flux as measured by the GOES satellites upon arrival. In the second image we see the deviation in the Boulder, CO magnetometer at the onset of this CME.
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 685
Issue Time: 2012
Apr 26 0245 UTC
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached:
2012 Apr 26 0240 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC
Active Warning:
Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily
poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power
grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite
operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e.,
northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.
Continue to check back for updates as the storm progresses.
On April 23, 2012 at 17:38 UTC, plage Region 1461 (N10W19), produced a C2.0 Solar Flare with an associated Earth directed Full Halo CME. Varying models place the time of arrival for this CME between April 26, at approx 14:00 UTC, according to the NOAA/WSA-ENLIL Model( click this link to see the latest plot : NOAA/WSA-ENLIL CME Model ), to April 27, at 05:49:22 UTC, Confidence Level: ± 6 hours, with the NASA/ISWA CCMC-ENLIL Model. (click this link to see the latest plot:ISWA/CCMC-ENLIL CME Earth Cone Model). On this animated gif (left),we can see the Full Halo CME as it spreads out around the disk in all directions; captured here by SOHO with the LC3 telescope. Although it is hard to see in this image, there is also a Sundiving Comet that can be seen taking its last trip through the solar system, as it dives into the Sun. You can see it travel from the bottom of the movie window up into the disk at the 7:00 position. For a larger high resolution view click on the gif image. For a current view click the "Latest Lasco C3 Movie" box, over on the right hand side of our page!
A Geomagnetic Storm, NOAA Sclae G2 Moderate Kp=6, causing a Mid Latitude Aurora, continues due to the arrival of a CME that lifted off the solar disk on April 19th. Solar wind velocities increased from 350 - 400 km/s. For the original post on the origins of this CME, read the original post here: CME arrival soon and sunspot update . The CME arrived with a Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse that was observed by NOAA at the Boulder CO magnetometer with a deviation of 31 nT at 03:23 UTC on April 23.
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK06
Serial Number: 284
Issue Time: 2012
Apr 24 0047 UTC
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached:
2012 Apr 24 0046 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC
Active Warning:
Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily
poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid
fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage
alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur;
increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high
frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora
may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.
One new region was numbered overnight; this was region 1464 which is located just to the north of region 1460, and is a BXO type group at 10 millionths in size.
Region 1459 decayed in size from a EKC group at 250 millionths, to a DSI
at 180 millionths.
Most other groups increased slightly in size.
Numerous C class solar flares took place yesterday, the largest was a
C7 peaking at 1126z from region 1455 that rotated out of view 2 days
ago.
This region produced a large coronal mass ejection that is not Earth directed.
A C1 solar flare from region 1462 also produced a coronal mass ejection that may have an Earthward component. The geomagnetic field is expected to be
quiet to active on April 20.
The CME observed on April 18 could reach
Earth on April 21, and cause active conditions through April 22.
An Aurora watch will be in effect for the next 72 hours.
