Starting today at around 13:15 UTC a LDE (long duration event) solar flare began around sunspot 1520. This event is still in progress at this time with it reaching a M1.7 level thus far
There was a large bright CME seen in association with this LDE Flare
It is unsure at this time if this CME will be geoeffective or not
There was a large bright CME seen in association with this LDE Flare
It is unsure at this time if this CME will be geoeffective or not
A S1 solar radiation storm has began as a result in the proton rise from today's event
Continue to check back often for further updates and alerts as today's solar events unfold.
All updates will be added to the bottom of this report
From Spaceweather
According to a forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the CME will hit Venus on July 19th and could deliver a glancing blow to Earth on July 20th. The impact could re-energize but not rival the spectacular light show of July 14th through 16th
Issue Time: 2012 Jul 17 1625 UTC
Issue Time: 2012 Jul 17 1022 UTC
ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Threshold Reached: 2012 Jul 17 1005 UTC
Station: GOES 13
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.
Issue Time: 2012 Jul 17 0959 UTC
EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1979
Valid From: 2012 Jul 17 0335 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2012 Jul 17 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.
A S1 solar radiation storm has began as a result in the proton rise from today's event
Continue to check back often for further updates and alerts as today's solar events unfold.
All updates will be added to the bottom of this report
From Spaceweather
According to a forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the CME will hit Venus on July 19th and could deliver a glancing blow to Earth on July 20th. The impact could re-energize but not rival the spectacular light show of July 14th through 16th
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SWPC Alerts:
Issue Time: 2012 Jul 17 1625 UTC
WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Valid From: 2012 Jul 17 1630 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Jul 18 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.
Valid From: 2012 Jul 17 1630 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Jul 18 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.
Issue Time: 2012 Jul 17 1022 UTC
ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Threshold Reached: 2012 Jul 17 1005 UTC
Station: GOES 13
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.
Issue Time: 2012 Jul 17 0959 UTC
EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1979
Valid From: 2012 Jul 17 0335 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2012 Jul 17 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.
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I am quite sure that there was a backside CME event at the same time as the one from the area around 1520,the CME also(I think)occurred prior to the LDE Flare - Though I am not %100 on that.
ReplyDeleteGreat Reporting and Updates as usual from 'My Solar Alerts' - ahead of the rest quite often : )
An all round brilliant Solar/Geo-Space correlation site.
Thank you to the Contributors for this great gateway.
I hope you can hang in there with all the madness and chaos ensuing in your GLP thread... I feel so sorry for you having to deal with that crap. Great work again and thanks for the report!
ReplyDeleteCan't get on glp, any computer is immediately banned.
ReplyDeleteSpaceweather says the M flare that occurred last night was magnetically connected to earth, but the CME will likely miss us. I was surprised to hear that a spot on the limb could be connected to earth still.
Anyway, hope all is well!
Just wanted to post something I found interesting (banned from GLP)
ReplyDeleteThe CME that occurred today from 1520 was travelling at 2930 km/s would mean if earth directed, would arrive in 14 hours
http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=sun+to+earth+at+2930+km%2Fs
crazy
NiNz!
ReplyDeleteS'C here..we have a Flare,looks at least an M on the North West of the disc that is'nt showing on GOES X-Ray
Lookhttp://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_2048_0304.jpg
It's on SDO Images but not GOES!?
I hope you read this.
i will have to look into this, Thanks! :)
ReplyDeletei always read here, just sometimes with a delay
2 M flares in the last 24hrs from 1532, both with associated CME's
both CMEs earth directed
i will do a solar update report tomorrow on the blog
Good work!
ReplyDeleteHmm guess we just have to wait patiently for the activity to pick up again :)
ReplyDelete