CME Arrival Due Today - Updated Hourly

 

   Today we are awaiting the arrival of a Earth directed CME that was ejected from the solar surface on March 15, 2013. While we wait for this CME to arrive, we thought it would be a good time to update everyone with the info we have on this CME. We have our original report on this CME that you can view HERE.  A geomagnetic storm watch is in effect for the next 24-48 hours when this CME is expected to arrive with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm expected for the Saturday March 16th and G2 (Moderate) storming expected for Sunday March 17th. (click HERE to view the Geomagnetic Storm Scales) 

Any and All updates will be added to the bottom of this report in the spacial 'UPDATE' section. Be sure to check back often through today to find out about any change in conditions.

CME arrival is due Today:
March 16th @ 17:00 UTC - March 17th @ 03:00 UTC
March 16th @ 1pm EST - 11pm EST
March 16th @ 10am PST - 8pm PST
(all times are +/- 6hr)
*this CME was traveling away from the solar surface at a speed of  900 km/s (2 million mph) when it left the solar surface.

Event Issue Date: 2013-03-15 09:23:51.0 GMT

CME Arrival Time: 2013-03-16 16:59:03.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 4 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 4.3 Re
Credit: NASA ISWA

LDE M Flare in Progress - CME Watch In Effect!

   Out of nowhere! At this time there is a LDE (long duration event) M flare in progress . This M class solar flare event began today, March 15th just before 06:00 UTC and is currently at a M1.2 reading. The source of this LDE M flare is sunspot 1692 that is located in the very northern center of the solar disk..  Long duration events such as we are seeing right now are commonly associated with CME's. Because of this, we will be watching close for any signs of a CME that may be ejected toward Earth as well as what sunspot this event took place around. 
New Updates added! Click on the report title to view full report & all new updates.

Today's M flare event started taking place at the same time SWPC issued an alert that there is a Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse. This indicated that the CME we were expecting for March 15th has now arrived

Long duration C-Class Flare in progress

   We noticed a filament eruption today near Sunspot 1691 - 1690 located in the northern-center area of the solar disk. 

This filament eruption resulted in a 2 hour long LDE C-Class solar flare that occurred starting at 10:17 UTC and ended at 12:25 UTC 
  
We will update this report if we see a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) associated with this event. 

   UPDATE: There was a  CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) produced in association with todays event as we can see on STEREO B (here to the left). At this time the CME appears to have a mostly northward trajectory. We are still waiting on STEREO A to update so we can better determine if this CME  will be geoeffective. 

 *Continue to check back often for further updates and alerts as today's solar events unfold.

 

Another active Region rotating into view

 

The image to the left from NASA SDO shows regions 1692, 1694 and a new region rotating into view.