Major Event! LDE M Flare with CME

   There is currently a M3.2 LDE Flare in progress from sunspot region 1402. This started around 13:45 utc

A large Earth directed CME was associated with this Flare.

Update: This CME has arrived. View Current updates on this CME arrival here
http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/01/solar-storm-in-effect-cme-arrived.html

 Here you can see this CME on STEREO A & B.

I will head over to SDO and take a look around there to see what kind of images i can dig up that will show us this CME.

You can see on iswa Earths proximity to region 1402 where this CME was produced

1402 is located directly above 1401, and Earth is in direct proximity to 1401
Half of the bulk from this CME is earth directed, the other half is northward directed and will not effect earth

http://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080/IswaSystemWebApp/

You can see the projected CME direction here on the iswa model

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080/IswaSystemWebApp/iSWACygnetStreamer?timestamp=2038-01-23%2000:44:00&window=-1&cygnetId=261

Now SpaceWeather.com has added an update and confirms what we have reported here

This CME is indeed Earth directed

EARTH-DIRECTED SOLAR FLARE: Active sunspot 1401 erupted today, Jan. 19th, between 15:15 and 16:30 UT. The long-duration blast produced an M3-class solar flare and a CME that appears to be heading toward Earth.

NASA's twin STEREO spacecraft recorded an impressive CME emerging from the blast site: movie #1, movie #2. Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab confirm that the CME is heading for Earth, and they say strong geomagnetic storms are possible when the cloud arrives this weekend. Their animated forecast track predicts an impact on Jan. 21st at 22:30 UT (+/- 7 hrs).

http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=19&month=01&year=2012

There was a Type II Radio Emission with this event-

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 774
Issue Time: 2012 Jan 19 1345 UTC
ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2012 Jan 19 1252 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 933 km/s

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/archive/current_month.html

Here are the latest updated images of STEREO A & B where we can see just how massive this CME is

   

All this, on the day we are expecting the arrival of a CME that was produced this past Monday, Jan 16th 2012

You can read all about that here:

 http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/01/cme-with-led-flare-solar-activity.html

Aurora watch for today is in effect

spaceweather.com reports on todays chances of a geomagnetic storm:

CHANCE OF AURORAS: NOAA forecasters estimate a 15% to 20% chance of polar geomagnetic storms during the next 24 hours in response to a possible glancing blow from a CME. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras

http://spaceweather.com/

As of 20:02 UTC we have increased chances of another M and X Flare from Sunspot region 1402

Sunspot Region 1402

52% Chance of M Flare
41% Chance of X Flare

http://spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk/monitor.html

(monitor updates each 2min)

Keep an eye on the Xray flux for another major flare today

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_1m.html


Latest Update - 21:36 UTC
It is possible that this CME could catch up with at least parts of the Jan 18th CME from region 1399 located in the southern region of the solar disk, adding to it's mass at the time of arrival
Report on the Jan 18th CME can be found here
http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/01/southern-cme-solar-activity-update-for.html

Here is the latest SDO composite image of this ongoing Flare event

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 019 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Region 1402 (N29E15)
produced an M3/2n flare at 19/1605Z associated with a Type IV radio
sweep and a full-halo CME (estimated plane-of-sky speed 1100 km/s).
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/forecast.html

Here is a video of todays event
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4QjgpfaBQmQ&feature=channel_video_title