CME from Jan 27th X Flare Arrives

    Looking at the ACE data, we can see that the CME associated with the Jan 27th X1.7 flare has arrived at arround 15:40 UTC. This CME is expected to only give a glancing blow and not create a geomagnetic storm. We will keep an eye on the ACE data and report if conditions increase or change.

Original X1.7 flare report:
http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/01/x17-flare-january-27-2012.html

NOAA Alert:
Issue Time: 2012 Jan 30 1653 UTC
SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2012 Jan 30 1624 UTC
Deviation: 8 nT
Station: Boulder


2012-01-30 17:15   CME Arrival at Earth from the X1-solar flare
A pulse in the solar wind passed the ACE spacecraft around 1540 UTC (10:40 EST) today. This abrupt increase in speed and magnetic field strength is thought to be from a CME on Friday, January 27. No significant geomagnetic storm activity is expected from this. Another effect of Friday's eruption, a Solar Radiation Storm, continues its leisurely decay and is nearing the end of the event (currently at S1 (Minor) levels).
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/

Solar Activity Update - Jan 28, 2012

  
   Update 20:52 UTC Jan 28, 2012 :

We are currently having a S2 Solar radiation Storm that was brought on by yesterdays X1.7 solar flare that peaked at 18:33 UTC Jan 27, 2012.
http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/01/x17-flare-january-27-2012.html
Proton event conditions at this time are ongoing with a slight drop in protons now occurring.

  
   NOAA Space Weather Alert:

EXTENDED WARNING:
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Valid From: 2012 Jan 27 1826 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2012 Jan 29 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Predicted NOAA Scale: S2 - Moderate


What is a Solar Radiation Storm?
What are the effects of a Solar Radiation Storm?
http://www.spaceweather.com/glossary/srs.html

X1.7 Flare, January 27, 2012

       
    Updated 04:52 UTC Jan 28 2012

  Sunspot Region 1402 unleashed an X flare that peaked at X1.7 at 18:33 UTC. There was a full halo CME seen in association with this X flare event. At this time, it would appear that Earth may see a glancing blow from this CME. We will update as more data comes in.

  

   The X Flare can easily be depicted on this image from  SDO/EVE SAM.  It can be seen originating from Sunspot Region 1402 which has now rotated off on to the far western limb of the solar disk.
This X flare wasEearth directed. Anything showing up on the Xray flux is Earth registered.
If this X flare had occured 4-5 days ago while directly Earth facing, it would have registered significantly higher on the X scale.

  

   This event caused another sharp rise in Protons, as we see here on the current GOES Proton Flux.

NOAA Alerts:

ALERT: Proton Event 100MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1pfu

Begin Time: 2012 Jan 27 1900 UTC

ALERT: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Begin Time: 2012 Jan 27 2105 UTC
NOAA Scale: S2 - Moderate

ALERT: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Begin Time: 2012 Jan 27 2105 UTC
NOAA Scale: S2 - Moderate

   This X 1.7 Flare started bombarding the Ionosphere with protons within minutes of being released from the Sun.  The majority of the energy is extinguished in the extreme lower region of the ionosphere (around 50-80 km in altitude). This area is particularly important to radio communications because this is the area where most of the absorption of radio signals energy occurs. The enhanced ionization produced by incoming energetic protons increases the absorption levels in the lower ionosphere and can have the effect of completely blocking all ionospheric radio communications through the polar regions. Such events are known as Polar Cap Absorption events (or PCAs). These events commence and last as long as the energy of incoming protons at approximately greater than 10 MeV exceeds

roughly 10 pfu. This graph shows the frequencies that are currently being affected, and where.

Solar Activity Update, January 27, 2012

      Updated @18:40 Jan. 27, 2012

    Sunspot Region 1402 unleashed an X flare that peaked at X1.7 at 18:33 UTC.

     
     As of this post there have been five C class flares recorded by GOES today from Sunspot Regions 1401, 1402, and 1409.  The largest of these flares was a C5.5 Solar Flare from Sunspot Region 1402 at 06:24 UTC.  There was a CME eruption from the SW region of the disk that is seen beginning to eject on SOHO LC2 at approximatley 05:12 UTC.  This CME was ejected from near a new Sunspot Region  that was developing before it rotated off of the Earth facing side of the disk, and has not yet been numbered.

In this SOHO Lasco C2 image we get a nice view of this latest CME as it continues to speed away from the Solar Disk. Because of the direction this CME was ejected, it is not expected to be geoeffective.

LDE Flare In Progress

  
   Latest Update - 08:17 UTC
   Jan 26, 2012 :

We have yet another LDE (long duration event) Flare in progress. This flare began around 04:09 UTC and reached a max of C6.4 at 05:49 UTC. This is the third LDE of 2012.

Keep checking back for current updates!

   There was a CME associated with

this LDE flare. Due to the location of 1402 on the far Northwest area of the solar disk, this CME is most likley not Earth directed

 

 

Region 1402 says "bye" but not without flaring

   We have C5.8 and a C7.9 solar flare from sunspot region 1402, one right after another.

*The first flare was a C5.8 that peaked at 00:36 UTC Jan 26th.

The background Xray level slowly dropped to C1.7, then went on the rise again at 01:40 UTC.

*The second flare was a C7.9 that peaked at 01:49 UTC Jan 26.

   Sunspot regions 1401 and 1402 are now on the Northwest limb and will soon rotate off the western limb out of a Earth facing view. But not without a last "Good bye"! We will have to wait around 20 days for these two very active regions to rotate back in Earths direction

 We also noticed some ejection on SDO

ACE Data Offline (Updated!)

   We wanted to do a quick post as to the situation with the ACE Satellite data.
Often, while watching a solar event, we hear people complain that the ACE data has stopped working. This is due to ACE being put into safe mode, in order to protect the sensors aboard the satellite. If the sensors are online and working when a significant solar event occurs, the sensors could be badly damaged.

Update Jan 25 @ 16:45 :
ACE is now back up and running. We started receiving data from ACE once more at around 10:00 UTC today. At 1st glance, it would appear that as reported below, the CRIS Image Intensifier did power off at 023-07:46:38, and has now powered back on.


Update Jan 25 @ 06:51 :
Our friend Joinca just brought the following to our attention. Thank you Joinca!

==================================================
ACE Weekly 01/17/2012 - 01/23/2012

All ACE spacecraft subsystems are performing as expected.

==================================================
Orbit/Attitude:

No maneuvers were completed this week.  The next attitude maneuver is
scheduled for Monday 01/30/2012.

===================================================
OCRs:

MOCR 387 has been approved to allow the spacecraft to violate the 4
degree sun constraint and drift to a sun angle of 2 degrees during the
February 2012 Solar Exclusion Zone (SEZ) transit.  The maneuver on
Monday 01/30/2012 will orient the spacecraft prior to the transit with a
sun angle of 10 degrees.  As the spacecraft moves relative to the sun,
the sun angle will decrease to 2 degrees on Wednesday 02/08/2012 and
then increase to 12 degrees when the next maneuver will occur on Tuesday
02/21/2012.

Powerfull Jan 23rd CME Arriving Now!

    Update @ 02:33 UTC Jan 25, 2012:

"Full power to the shields, Mr. Scott!"

On Jan 23, 2012 @ 03:59 UTC there was a CME produced in association with an M8.7sloar flare from Sunspot Region 1402. Here we see this CME approaching Earth's Magnetosphere on the most recent STEREO HI2
image taken at Jan 24 01:47 UTC.  Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab estimated an ejection velocity of 2200 km/s getting this CME across 147,098,070 km in near record time,

Event Summary:
-Sudden Geomagnetic Impulse detected @ 15:04.
-Conditions are subsiding.
-A Kp4 Geomagnetic Storm Watch is in effect.
-S2 Solar Radiation Storm is ongoing.
-Strongest Proton Storm since 2003.
-Protons levels are now decreasing.
-WE have no Solar Wind or Density data from ACE due.
to sensor contamination from the ongoing proton event.
Read full report for all details.

Solen reported on Jan 23, 2012: ACE solar wind speed, density and temperature became invalid after approx. 06:30 UTC due to sensor contamination.
http://www.solen.info/solar/

We have made a new report about the ACE satellite data issue.
You can read that report here.
http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/01/ace-data-offline.html

NOAA Space Weather Alerts:
WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected.
Valid From: 2012 Jan 24 1930 UTC.
Valid To: 2012 Jan 25 0100 UTC.
Warning Condition: Onset.
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate.

Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse.
Observed: 2012 Jan 24 1504 UTC.
Deviation: 22 nT.
Station: Boulder.

EXTENDED WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected.
Valid From: 2012 Jan 23 0500 UTC.
Now Valid Until: 2012 Jan 25 0100 UTC.
Warning Condition: Persistence.
Predicted NOAA Scale: S3 - Strong.

SOHO CELIAS/MTOF Proton Monitor:
@ 22:02 UTC Jan 24 2012...
-Solar Wind Speed:  584.50 km/s.
-Density: 5.29.

Shows a spike in wind speed...
@ 14:49 UTC Jan 24, 2012
-Solar Wind Speed: 760.10 km/s
-Density: 6.09

Another LDE M Flare and 2 CME's - Jan 23 2012

Update @ 22:18 UTC Jan 23, 2012:

 

Event Summery:

-The CME's are Earth directed.

-CME speed is 2200 km/s

-Will arrive on Jan 24, 2012 - 1 day after ejection 

-There was a R2 radio Blackout with this M flare

-There was Proton event associated this this event
-Strongest Proton event since 2003
-S3 Solar Radiation Storm is now in progress

Read full report for all details!

*A strong S3 Level radiation storm is still in progress.

This is the strongest proton event since 2003!

 NOAA Correction and New Data Update:
Issued 16:30 UTC Jan 24, 2012
Here we see a plot of the Protons and it shows the secondary increase of 10 MeV protons as the CME arrived.

Earlier, it was stated that the current Solar Radiation Storm was the largest since May 2005, when the 10 MeV protons exceeded over 3000 PFU. This was not correct.
At the time of the earlier post, this current Storm was the biggest since January 2005, when the 10 MeV flux was 5040 pfu. After the arrival of the CME earlier today, the 10 MeV flux again increased and we were at around 6300 pfu. This is now the largest Solar Radiation Storm since October 2003. (The Halloween Storms)

http://www.facebook.com/pages/NOAA-NWS-Space-Weather-Prediction-Center/232532740131296 

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/

*What is a Solar Radiation Storm? What are the effects?

Read the answer here:

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/index.html#SolarRadiationStorms

D Region Absorption @ 19:10 UTC

 *EXTENDED WARNING:

Issue Time: 2012 Jan 23 1426 UTC

 Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected

Extension to Serial Number: 336

Valid From: 2012 Jan 23 0500 UTC

Now Valid Until: 2012 Jan 24 1900 UTC

Warning Condition: Persistence

Predicted NOAA Scale: S3 - Strong

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/warnings_timeline.html

Solar Storm In Effect - CME Arrived (Updated)

    Update:  Jan 22nd 23:41 UTC
  At this time we are having a G1 Geomagnetic storm.
Geomagnetic conditions are ongoing
So far, conditions peaked between 10:00-12:00 UTC today. Solar winds topped out at speeds over 450km/sec. Density reached  65.6 protons/cm3

Current Solar Conditions:
Wind Speed: 447.9 km/sec
Density: 19.8  protons/cm3
Solar Storm Level - G1 - Minor
Kp Level is now at-  Kp5

High & Mid Latitude Aurora Watch in Effect

CME IMPACT: A coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth's magnetic field at 0617 UT on Jan. 22nd. At first the impact did not appear to be a strong one: the solar wind speed barely lifted itself to ~400 km/s when the CME passed by. Now, however, in the wake of the CME, a dense and increasingly geoeffective solar wind stream is blowing around Earth, setting the stage for possible auroras on the night of Jan. 22nd
http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=22&month=01&year=2012

Latest NOAA Alert:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 673
Issue Time: 2012 Jan 22 2022 UTC
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2012 Jan 22 2021 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Read our report tracking the beginning arrival of the Jan 19th 2012 CME
http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/01/jan-19th-cme-arriving-now.html

CME and Sunspot update

   Regions 1408 and 1409 were numbered in the night, both are small and simple. The largest regions on the visible disc 1401 and 1402 both simplified during the last 24 hours. Both regions saw spot decay in the trailing part of the groups. Region 1401 decreased in size while region 1402 increased in size slightly.

Region 11401 [N17W13] lost penumbral area and gained spots in the trailing spot section while the leading penumbra split into two. If the current separation between the leading and trailing spot section increases the region could be split. M class flares are possible.

Region 11402 [N30W08] remains capable of producing further M class flares. The large penumbra has taken on a symmetrical shape

http://www.solen.info/solar/

   We had a C7 solar flare peaking at 02:57 UTC and right after that  followed by a C3 flare at 04:00 UTC, both from  region 1401. We have to remember during the declining phase of large sunspot groups, solar flares can take place as spots disappear and opposing magnetic fields collapse on to each other. A large recurrent coronal hole (CH496) in the southern hemisphere could rotate into an Earth facing position on January 24-26. (CH497) is now in  a Earth facing position.

C7.1 Flare from Sunspot Region 1401

    Starting at 02:32 UTC on Sunday January 22, 2011, Sunspot Region 1401 released a C7.1 magnitude Solar Flare.  At the time of this post Sunspot Region 1401 is very active and can be seen interacting with it's companion Sunspot Region 1402, magnetically .  Keep watch in the following hours for more activity from these Sunspot Regions.

  Here we see the Global D Saturation as it increased significantly with this event.

Jan 19th CME Arriving Now

    Update:  Jan 22 @ 23:43 UTC

We are now having a G1 Minor Geomagnetic Storm

Geomagnetic conditions are ongoing

So far, conditions peaked between 10:00-12:00 UTC today. Solar winds topped out at speeds over 450km/sec. Density reached  65.6 protons/cm3

Current Solar Conditions:
Wind Speed: 447.9 km/sec
Density: 19.8  protons/cm3
Solar Storm Level - G1 - Minor
Kp Level is now at Kp5

High & Mid Latitude Aurora Watch in Effect

       Update: Jan 22 @ 07:30 UTC


     At 0516 UTC Jan 22, 2012 the ACE Spacecraft observed an IP Shock Passage. At 0614 UTC a Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse with a recorded deviation of 31 nT was recorded at the Boulder, CO Magnetometer. At 07:30 UTC The ACE data reads a proton density13.1 p/cc , Solar wind 427.0km/s, the BznT is -29.5, BynT -3.4. We expect this activity to continue throughout the day and will be posting updates.

Watch the CME arrival with us on the nict:

http://www2.nict.go.jp/y/y223/simulation/realtime/index.html

Channel Eruption on West limb - Old Region 1396

  Images show the sunspot region of the latest C 2.4 peaking at 13:42 UTC. Seems its the old region 1396 which rotates off the west limb . After and before this flare peaks, we noticed ejections on SDO.

  Around 10:00 UTC we can see a CME on STEREO A images that match's with the channel eruption on the west limb.


 http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/browse/2012/01/21/ahead_20120121_cor2_512.mpg

CME arrives as expected.

 
    At approximately 04:01 UTC the CME that accompanied the January 16th LDE C 6.5 flare from Sunspot Region 1402 arrived.  At 04:01 ACE data showed an increase in proton density from 1.6 P/cc to 8.3P/cc and an uptick in the solar wind from 301.1 K/ps to 343.5 K/ps. This is just the first in a wave of CMEs expected over the next couple of days. This CME is only expected to give a glancing blow, as the majority of it will sweep past Earth in a northward direction. We will be anxiously awaiting the arrival of a larger double CME wave that was associated with the M3.2 LDE on thursday the 19th.  The Next CME is expected to arrive Sunday into Monday UTC. Be sure to check back for updates on these developing events.
The original post on this LDE  flare and CME can be seen here.

http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/01/long-duration-flare-and-cme.html

Chance of SEP Event increasing.

 

 
    The chance of a SEP (Solar Energetic Particle),or Proton event is on the rise. A strong magnetic connection of the Earth at Sunspot Region 1402 during yesterdays LDE M3.2 flare increased the precipitation of a stream of these particles to start bombarding Earths Ionosphere several hours later.When solar protons enter the Earth's magnetosphere where the magnetic fields become stronger than the solar magnetic fields, they are guided by the Earth's magnetic field into the polar regions where the majority of the Earth's magnetic field lines enter and exit. These protons then release their energy  through the process of ionization. The Graph to the left shows the current level of the ACE Spacecraft's readings of High Energy Protons.

  The majority of the energy is extinguished in the extreme lower region of the ionosphere (around 50-80 km in altitude). This area is particularly important to radio communications because this is the area where most of the absorption of radio signals energy occurs. The enhanced ionization produced by incoming energetic protons increases the absorption levels in the lower ionosphere and can have the effect of completely blocking all ionospheric radio communications through the polar regions. Such events are known as Polar Cap Absorption events (or PCAs). These events commence and last as long as the energy of incoming protons at approximately greater than 10 MeV exceeds roughly 10 pfu. This graph shows the frequencies that are currently being affected, and where.

Solar Activity Update Jan 20, 2012

   Sunspot regions 1401 & 1402 show no signs of decay. Today both regions still hold a chance of M/X flares.
NOAA has chances for flares today as 50% chance for M flares, 05% chance for X flares.
This is a overall daily chance NOAA assigns to the earth facing side of the sun.
To see the chances within each region throughout the day, we head over to the Bardford University ASAP solar flare predictions model. This model is updated each 2min based on changes seen in the SDO HMI images. We see that at this time region 1401 poses a 52% chance for M flares and 41% chance for X flare.

   Today we are expecting a possible glancing blow from a CME that occurred on Jan 16th
View the Jan 16th report here:
http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/01/cme-with-led-flare-solar-activity.html
We will keep an eye on the nict magnetosphere simulation for signs of this CME arrival and will report on the status at that time.

   There is a rise in the Proton monitor today. This is due to the LDE/CME we saw yesterday.

Site Update: We have now added a list of expected CMEs to the right hand column of each page, labeled "CME's Expected"
We will add CMEs we are expecting in there so that we can all keep track of whats expected and when. Just click on the expected date to view the original report.

Major Event! LDE M Flare with CME

   There is currently a M3.2 LDE Flare in progress from sunspot region 1402. This started around 13:45 utc

A large Earth directed CME was associated with this Flare.

Update: This CME has arrived. View Current updates on this CME arrival here
http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/01/solar-storm-in-effect-cme-arrived.html

 Here you can see this CME on STEREO A & B.

I will head over to SDO and take a look around there to see what kind of images i can dig up that will show us this CME.

You can see on iswa Earths proximity to region 1402 where this CME was produced

1402 is located directly above 1401, and Earth is in direct proximity to 1401
Half of the bulk from this CME is earth directed, the other half is northward directed and will not effect earth

http://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080/IswaSystemWebApp/

You can see the projected CME direction here on the iswa model

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080/IswaSystemWebApp/iSWACygnetStreamer?timestamp=2038-01-23%2000:44:00&window=-1&cygnetId=261

Increased Chances for M or X Flare

   Sunspot regions 1401 and 1402 are surprising us. Unlike many large sunspot regions before them, they are not fizzing out with flare activity as they turn into a more earth facing position.

Solar Flare Chances as of 01:12 Jan 19th 2012-

Sunspot Region 1401:
60% Chance of M Flare
63% Chance of X Flare

Sunspot Region 1402
52% Chance of M Flare
41% Chance of X Flare

http://spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk/monitor.html
(monitor updates each 2min)

Keep an eye on the Xray flux for a M or X flare
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_1m.html

M1.7 Flare From Sunspot Region 1401

   We just has a M1.7 solar flare from sunspot region 1401 peaking at 19:12 utc. We will update if there was a CME associated with this flare. If you are having issues viewing posts, try viewing the site with Firefox. I believe there is a bug issue with IE browsers on this blogger platform. When using Firefox, everything runs smooth 

Southern CME - Solar Update for Jan 18 2012

   With the net blackout going on today, i wanted to do a run down of all around solar activity today.
As of 17:51 UTC:
SDO is Not up and running
http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/aiahmi/dayform.php
STEREO is Not up and running
http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
SOHO is Not up and running
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/spaceweather/
It is unclear at this time if this is due to the net blackout today, or some other issue. Due to this, most real time images on our site will show broken images until these sites are back online.
Update 19:31 utc: The sites are now back up, with the latest images being updated around 15:00.

Solar activity over the last 24hrs has been moderate. There was an eruption at about 13:10 around region 1399 located in the southern region of the solar disk. There was a CME produced, but due to the southern origin of this CME, more data is needed to determine if this CME will have any effects on earth. The solar winds coming from CH493 slowly decayed and are now at 386.3 km/sec.

The X-ray flux has been a bit quiet with the largest flare recorded for Jan 18th being a C2.4 flare located at sunspot region 1401 at 10:30 UTC
Large sunspots 1401 and 1402 developed further and still pose a threat for M flares.

Want to make a comment on a post? You Don't have to sign up!
We now allow posts from non followers as well. On each post, you will see posting options directly after the comment box. Just chose your preference, then click "Publish"
Whala! Done! Easy as that :)

M1.0 Solar Flare - Jan 17th 2012 04:53 UTC

   We just had a M1.0 Flare peaking at 04:53 UTC that appears to have originated from region 1401       

Once there is more updated solar data image we will report more on this event

Solar Activity Update Jan. 16th 2012 - CME With LED Flare

    This is a solar activity update to the LED (long duration event) flare that took place around sunspot region 1402 in the early hours of Jan 16th 2012. This LDE flare lasted about 4 hours, starting at 02:36:00 and ended at 06:46:00 with a peak at around 04:44:00. there was a CME that was produced with this LDE flare as we can see here on STEREO B.
View original report here:
 http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/01/long-duration-flare-and-cme.html

Another Rise In X-Ray Flux + SIDC Report

 Update:   SIDC - RWC BELGIUM 16 Jan 2012, 1221UT

Solar flaring activity is expected to reach the M-level due to NOAA ARs 1401 and 1402 (no Catania numbers yet) near the north-east limb. However, an Earth-directed CME associated with flares in these active regions is unlikely. 

Whole report can be found here:  http://sidc.oma.be/index.php

We had another rise in X-ray Flux. Couple hours aso a C3.9 peaks a 08:12 and now a C5.5 10:38 UTC.
Both flares located this time at Region 1401. We added a new Vid, including the LDE and the latest Flares, we noticed also another small CME.

Long Duration Flare and CME

At the time of this post we are currently seeing a LDE (long duration event) flare from a new sunspot region located off of the NE limb. New Region 1402 is a large DHO class Sunspot Region with a spot count of 7. This ongoing flare is currently at C 6.4, and the latest Stereo images are showing that a CME is accompanying this event. Pictured below are images from SDO EVE, SOHO, SDO AIA 171 telescope, and Stereo Behind, of this ongoing flare and CME. Images Courtesy of NASA SDO, Stereo, SOHO, and GOES.

Solar Researcher Patrick Geryl Offers $10,000 Reward!

From the following link:
"Independent Solar researcher Patrick Geryl has contacted me to ask if I can help find someone with the necessary skills and qualifications who can convert his static analysis of solar activity changes into a dynamic model and get it published in a recognised astronomical journal.

As a reward for the effort involved, Patrick is offering $10,000 dollars or currency equivalent to the person who steps up and achieves this task. Patrick writes"
http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2012/01/07/solar-researcher-offers-10k-reward-for-published-dynamic-version-of-static-analysis/


    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZ92gy39lhE

Sunspot Region 1401 Keeps On Flaring

    We notice some activity in the X-ray Flux
A new C 2.5 peaks at 00:18 UTC. First SDO images confirms Region 1401. Also LMSAL shows it up:
 http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/last_events/gev_20120116_0014.html
 Its still in pogress so you can await more soon

Region 1404 numbered and USAF/NOAA Report

    Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1401 (N17E60) has been the most productive region,
producing multiple C-class events. The largest event of the period
was C2 x-ray flare from around the west limb near old Region 1391
(N12, L=013). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the
disk, with Region 1403 (S19E29) being numbered today.
 Event Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01


See the whole Report here: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/forecast.html

My Solar Alerts Collaboration with SolarImg.org

My Solar Alerts is proud to announce our collaboration with the great team over at SolarImg.org

Please take a moment to head over to their main forum here
http://solarimg.org/
and their extensive page of Solar Monitors here:
http://solarimg.org/artis/

We are excited about this collaboration and believe this will help benifit the solar community a great deal

What Happens in a Solar Flare? Sunspot Update - A CME Took Place

    Solar activity increased a bit yesterday. Today its quiet so far but with the active regions on the disc
  we expect more flares during the next days.

    We noticed a CME today on Stereo images. This CME was not earth direced. It will not effect us in any way. Source was a eruption on the farside.

Three 6+ Earthquakes in South Shetland Islands

   

6.2   2012/01/15 14:21:32   -60.797    -55.999  14.8   SOUTH SHETLAND ISLANDS

6.6   2012/01/15 13:40:18   -60.765    -55.858  10.0   SOUTH SHETLAND ISLANDS
6.6   2012/01/15 13:40:17   -60.793    -55.729  1.1   SOUTH SHETLAND ISLANDS

(all 3 say they have been reviewed already)

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.php

you can see on the quake map where the shetland islands are
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Maps/10/300_-60.php

all 3 quakes are very shallow, and we have NO buoys down there
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/obs.shtml

the nearest buoy is half way up south america

Large-scale seismic activity rising along planet’s southern pole
http://theextinctionprotocol.wordpress.com/2012/01/15/large-scale-seismic-activity-rising-along-planets-southern-pole/