Friday, April 20, 2012

CME arrival soon and sunspot update

   One new region was numbered overnight; this was region 1464 which is located just to the north of region 1460, and is a BXO type group at 10 millionths in size.

    Region 1459 decayed in size from a EKC group at 250 millionths, to a DSI at 180 millionths.
Most other groups increased slightly in size.
Numerous C class solar flares took place yesterday, the largest was a C7 peaking at 1126z from region 1455 that rotated out of view 2 days ago.
This region produced a large coronal mass ejection that is not Earth directed.
A C1 solar flare from region 1462 also produced a coronal mass ejection that may have an Earthward component. The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on April 20.
The CME observed on April 18 could reach Earth on April 21, and cause  active conditions through April 22.


 An Aurora watch will be in effect for the next 72 hours.
Here you can link to some Auroral cams:



Thursday, April 19, 2012

Large Filament lift off southeast



Update 23:30 UTC:

The filament lift off we see here on the image to the left was maybe a result of a channel eruption

Right after that filament lift off we could see a rly nice explosion (ejecta) also seen on Stereo Ahead EUVI imagery
http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/browse/2012/04/19/behind_20120419_euvi_195_512.mpg

The CME looks really bright. Due to the location of the source (southwest) a direct hit will be probably unlikely. But a portion of it could strife us
 http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/browse/2012/04/19/behind_20120419_cor2_512.mpg

 


Region 1455 says Good bye

We have a new 7.0 C-Class Solar flare as you can see here on the GOES X-ray Flux chart.








We can confirm the location of this event. Its around the old Region 1455 which rotated off the limb yesterday.

We noticed some ejection on SDO AIA 304 Imagery but due to the location it will probably not geo effective




   Region 1463 get official numbered and is now a  DSO type group at 40 millionths in size
All regions increased in size yesterday, region 1459 increased by 110 millions and region 1460 increased by 120 millionths
Most of interest Region 1463. It shows up  several small magnetic delta structures in the central part of the region. So a M Flare from this Region is possible


Wednesday, April 18, 2012

Near M Flare (C8.9) from an unnumbered region

A near M flare a C 8.9 just took place. Peaking at 12:39 UTC.
http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/last_events/gev_20120418_1232.html

We can confirm the location of this event.
It a new region which emerged in the last couple hours. The region is close to the new numbered region 1462

A CME can be possible but we have to check more data


Update 17:50 UTC:
The new spot which is still growing in the southwest quadrant (near Region 1462). Fires up every single hour Mid to High Level C-Class flares
Looks harmonic as we can see on the GOES X-ray Flux Chart




We can see now on Stereo Ahead C2 Imagery
The C 8.9 flare was inbounded with a CME.
It looks not that large but its geo-effective as well

Stay tuned