Wednesday, April 25, 2012

CME Arrival / Geomagnetic Storm

     The CME that erupted on April 23, 2012 along with the C2.0 solar Flare from plage Region 1461 (N10W19),(link to "Earth Directed Full Halo CME" report), has arrived and is stirring up a NOAA scale G1, geomagnetic storm with solar winds near the 700km/s range. In the first image to the left we can see the drop in the electron flux as measured by the GOES satellites upon  arrival. In the second image we see the deviation in the Boulder, CO magnetometer at the onset of this CME.


Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 685
Issue Time: 2012 Apr 26 0245 UTC
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2012 Apr 26 0240 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Continue to check back for updates as the storm progresses.


Tuesday, April 24, 2012

Earth Directed Full Halo CME



On April 23, 2012 at 17:38 UTC, plage Region 1461 (N10W19), produced a C2.0 Solar Flare with an associated Earth directed Full Halo CME. Varying models place the time of arrival for this CME between April 26, at approx 14:00 UTC,  according to the NOAA/WSA-ENLIL Model( click this link to see the latest plot : NOAA/WSA-ENLIL CME Model ), to  April 27, at 05:49:22 UTC, Confidence Level: ± 6 hours, with the NASA/ISWA CCMC-ENLIL Model. (click this link to see the latest plot:ISWA/CCMC-ENLIL CME Earth Cone Model). On this animated gif (left),we can see the Full Halo CME as it spreads out around the disk in all directions; captured here by SOHO with the LC3 telescope. Although it is hard to see in this image, there is also a Sundiving Comet that can be seen taking its last trip through the solar system, as it dives into the Sun. You can see it travel from the bottom of the movie window up into the disk at the 7:00 position.  For a larger high resolution view click on the gif image.  For a current view click the "Latest Lasco C3 Movie" box, over on the right hand side of our page!


Geomagnetic Storm G2 and Mid Latitude Aurora


     A Geomagnetic Storm, NOAA Sclae G2 Moderate Kp=6,  causing a Mid Latitude Aurora, continues due to the arrival of a  CME that lifted off the solar disk on April 19th.  Solar wind velocities increased from 350 - 400 km/s. For the original post on the origins of this CME, read the original post here: CME arrival soon and sunspot update .   The CME arrived with a  Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse that was observed by NOAA at the Boulder CO magnetometer with a deviation of 31 nT at 03:23 UTC on April 23.


Space Weather Message Code: ALTK06
Serial Number: 284
Issue Time: 2012 Apr 24 0047 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2012 Apr 24 0046 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

Friday, April 20, 2012

CME arrival soon and sunspot update

   One new region was numbered overnight; this was region 1464 which is located just to the north of region 1460, and is a BXO type group at 10 millionths in size.

    Region 1459 decayed in size from a EKC group at 250 millionths, to a DSI at 180 millionths.
Most other groups increased slightly in size.
Numerous C class solar flares took place yesterday, the largest was a C7 peaking at 1126z from region 1455 that rotated out of view 2 days ago.
This region produced a large coronal mass ejection that is not Earth directed.
A C1 solar flare from region 1462 also produced a coronal mass ejection that may have an Earthward component. The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on April 20.
The CME observed on April 18 could reach Earth on April 21, and cause  active conditions through April 22.


 An Aurora watch will be in effect for the next 72 hours.
Here you can link to some Auroral cams:



Thursday, April 19, 2012

Large Filament lift off southeast



Update 23:30 UTC:

The filament lift off we see here on the image to the left was maybe a result of a channel eruption

Right after that filament lift off we could see a rly nice explosion (ejecta) also seen on Stereo Ahead EUVI imagery
http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/browse/2012/04/19/behind_20120419_euvi_195_512.mpg

The CME looks really bright. Due to the location of the source (southwest) a direct hit will be probably unlikely. But a portion of it could strife us
 http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/browse/2012/04/19/behind_20120419_cor2_512.mpg

 


Region 1455 says Good bye

We have a new 7.0 C-Class Solar flare as you can see here on the GOES X-ray Flux chart.








We can confirm the location of this event. Its around the old Region 1455 which rotated off the limb yesterday.

We noticed some ejection on SDO AIA 304 Imagery but due to the location it will probably not geo effective




   Region 1463 get official numbered and is now a  DSO type group at 40 millionths in size
All regions increased in size yesterday, region 1459 increased by 110 millions and region 1460 increased by 120 millionths
Most of interest Region 1463. It shows up  several small magnetic delta structures in the central part of the region. So a M Flare from this Region is possible


Wednesday, April 18, 2012

Near M Flare (C8.9) from an unnumbered region

A near M flare a C 8.9 just took place. Peaking at 12:39 UTC.
http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/last_events/gev_20120418_1232.html

We can confirm the location of this event.
It a new region which emerged in the last couple hours. The region is close to the new numbered region 1462

A CME can be possible but we have to check more data


Update 17:50 UTC:
The new spot which is still growing in the southwest quadrant (near Region 1462). Fires up every single hour Mid to High Level C-Class flares
Looks harmonic as we can see on the GOES X-ray Flux Chart




We can see now on Stereo Ahead C2 Imagery
The C 8.9 flare was inbounded with a CME.
It looks not that large but its geo-effective as well

Stay tuned

Tuesday, April 17, 2012

New CME from northwest filament eruption

We have a new CME as seen on Stereo Images

CME apears to be earth directed

More investigation on this is needed
apears to be earth directed








Latest SDO AIA 304 shows us the source:

videoSource of this CME is a filament eruption in the northwest

Monday, April 16, 2012

M 1.7 Solar flare and Partial halo CME


UPDATE 04/17/2012 16:00 UTC
A few C-class flares and an M-class flare were observed during the past 24 hours. We expect active conditions with C-class and M-class flares possible. An M1.7 flare was observed by GOES on April 16, peaking at 17:40 UT. The flare originated from an active region (Catania 03; old Sunspot 1442/43) which appeared now on the east limb. The accompanying CME propagated with the speed of about 1300 km/s.

Reporting to Solen.info:
A partial halo CME was observed after the M1 event in region S1592. There's a chance of a flank CME impact on April 19
 http://www.solen.info/solar/



   Region 1459 increased at a more rapid pace to a FHI group at 260 millionths, making it the largest visible sunspot group

New region S1592 [N12E80](associated to the M1 event) rotated into view at the northeast limb and will be soon numbered 1461. nFurther C class and a slight chance of an M class flare are possible over the coming days




Video shows you the increasing Region 1459:








Friday, April 13, 2012

Geomagnetic Storm / Mid Latitude Aurora


     The Coronal Hole High Speed Stream winds have stired up a G1 storm and a mid latitude Aurora. Will you be able to see the Aurora from your location?  Click here OVATION Auroral Forecast, to see where the Aurora  can be see from. Research more about the Aurora in our Q an A guides Q&A/Guides. The effects of the CHHSS are expected to continue through the 13th before diminishing on the 14th and returning to quiet levels on the 15th.
  
    Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 682
Issue Time: 2012 Apr 13 0234 UTC


ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2012 Apr 13 0207 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.

Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Wednesday, April 11, 2012

Rapidly developing Sunspot Region bursts onto the surface.S1576 [N07E23], (1455?)


     Beginning at approximately 19:54UTC on April 10 2012 a new Sunspot Region exploded onto the surface in a spectacular display from new region S1576 [N07E23], having just emerged with an east-west inversion line. This region is not yet numbered by NOAA/SWPC, but it is anticipated that it will be numbered Region 1455 later on today. This new region is shown imaged left by the SDO Magnetogram.  An animated gif of the Magnetogram showing the rapid development of this region is below and can be viewed by clicking on the image. This region will be rotating toward a more Earth  aligned position over the next couple of days increasing the chances of activity from this region becoming geoeffective.